Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Aaron Glenn

Head coach · NYJ · 2025–2026

5–21Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2026NYJ2–76816.241.270.63.38
2025NYJ3–1413527.448.967.42.38

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.022 (90% interval −0.078 to +0.124) over 203 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 1 at NYJ 30Q4, up 1puntgoconfident5.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 44Q4, down 2gofgconfident4.5
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident3.6
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 10 at LV 13Q4, down 5fggoconfident3.5
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & goal at LV 3Q1, tiedfggoconfident3.1
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 2 at LV 17Q1, down 4fggoconfident3.1
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 10 at NYJ 14Q4, down 7puntgoconfident2.7
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 1 at NYJ 40Q4, up 4puntgoconfident2.7
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & goal at KC 5Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.5
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 2 at ATL 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.4
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 7 at CAR 46Q3, down 10puntgoconfident2.4
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 12 at CHI 41Q3, down 10puntfgconfident2.1
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 6 at CIN 43Q3, down 11puntfguncertain1.9
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 4 at NYJ 38Q3, down 14puntgoconfident1.8
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 1 at NYJ 40Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.8
Every graded 4th down (203)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & 8 at PIT 17Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.2
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & 5 at PIT 33Q2, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & 3 at NYJ 23Q3, up 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & goal at PIT 1Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & 5 at NYJ 26Q4, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-07NYJ v PIT4th & 3 at NYJ 38Q4, down 2gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 11 at NYJ 35Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 20 at NYJ 45Q1, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 17 at NYJ 25Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 32Q2, down 20fggoconfident0.7
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 10 at NYJ 47Q2, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 1 at NYJ 28Q3, down 20puntgoconfident0.6
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 19 at NYJ 24Q4, down 27puntgouncertain0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 2 at NYJ 47Q4, down 27gogolean0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 18 at NYJ 47Q4, down 27puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 4 at BUF 48Q4, down 27gopuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NYJ v BUF4th & 2 at BUF 5Q4, down 27gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 4 at TB 20Q1, tiedfggouncertain-0.2
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 5 at TB 24Q2, tiedfgfglean0.0
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 1 at NYJ 44Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 4 at NYJ 24Q2, down 4puntgoconfident0.1
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 20 at NYJ 25Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & 12 at TB 47Q3, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NYJ v TB4th & goal at TB 4Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-29NYJ v MIA4th & 5 at MIA 36Q2, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-29NYJ v MIA4th & 1 at MIA 43Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-29NYJ v MIA4th & 7 at NYJ 49Q3, down 14puntgoconfident1.2
2025-09-29NYJ v MIA4th & 24 at MIA 32Q4, down 14fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-29NYJ v MIA4th & 10 at NYJ 31Q4, down 11puntgoconfident0.8
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & goal at DAL 7Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.4
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident3.6
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 29 at NYJ 21Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 8 at NYJ 24Q2, down 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 17 at NYJ 34Q3, down 20puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 1 at DAL 47Q3, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 16 at DAL 30Q3, down 27fgfglean0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 1 at DAL 44Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-05NYJ v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 17Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 7 at DEN 34Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 9 at DEN 23Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 5 at NYJ 31Q2, down 4puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 18 at NYJ 12Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 20Q3, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 45Q3, down 1puntgoconfident1.2
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 13 at NYJ 33Q3, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 14 at NYJ 20Q4, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 1 at NYJ 30Q4, up 1puntgoconfident5.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 17 at NYJ 26Q4, down 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12NYJ v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 44Q4, down 2gofgconfident4.5
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 5 at CAR 33Q1, tiedgogouncertain0.0
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 5 at NYJ 43Q1, down 3puntgouncertain-0.2
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 16Q2, down 3fggoconfident1.6
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 7 at NYJ 16Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 3 at NYJ 11Q2, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 7 at CAR 46Q3, down 10puntgoconfident2.4
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 3 at CAR 29Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.5
2025-10-19NYJ v CAR4th & 10 at NYJ 14Q4, down 7puntgoconfident2.7
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 1 at NYJ 37Q1, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 9 at NYJ 37Q1, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 1 at CIN 28Q2, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 15Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 7Q2, down 14fgfglean0.0
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 6 at CIN 43Q3, down 11puntfguncertain1.9
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & goal at CIN 6Q3, down 11fggolean1.2
2025-10-26NYJ v CIN4th & 1 at NYJ 49Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 8 at NYJ 43Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 4 at NYJ 28Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & goal at CLE 8Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 22 at NYJ 21Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 13 at NYJ 42Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 3 at NYJ 33Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NYJ v CLE4th & 10 at CLE 19Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 3 at NYJ 38Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident0.5
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 4 at NYJ 44Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.4
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 2 at NYJ 15Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.5
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 28 at NYJ 36Q3, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 12 at NYJ 36Q4, down 10puntgolean0.2
2025-11-13NYJ v NE4th & 4 at NE 15Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 6 at NYJ 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.6
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 10 at BAL 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 8 at BAL 44Q2, tiedpuntgouncertain0.4
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 10 at BAL 47Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 2 at NYJ 42Q3, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 10 at BAL 24Q4, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-23NYJ v BAL4th & 14 at NYJ 11Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 2 at ATL 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.4
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 6 at ATL 44Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 4 at NYJ 24Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 22 at NYJ 7Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 5 at NYJ 40Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 6 at ATL 36Q3, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 9 at ATL 14Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 1 at ATL 11Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-30NYJ v ATL4th & 11 at NYJ 13Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 7 at NYJ 44Q1, down 7puntgouncertain0.4
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 1 at NYJ 44Q1, down 21puntgoconfident0.9
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 4 at NYJ 19Q2, down 14puntgolean-0.0
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 2 at NYJ 28Q2, down 14puntgoconfident1.0
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 7 at NYJ 48Q3, down 17puntgoconfident0.9
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 17 at NYJ 34Q3, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 9 at MIA 12Q4, down 17fgfglean0.0
2025-12-07NYJ v MIA4th & 10 at MIA 45Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 1 at NYJ 44Q1, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 9 at JAX 42Q2, down 14puntfgconfident0.3
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 10 at JAX 23Q2, down 14fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 12 at JAX 33Q3, down 21fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 3 at NYJ 42Q3, down 25gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 9 at NYJ 46Q4, down 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14NYJ v JAX4th & 7 at NYJ 48Q4, down 28gopuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 8 at NO 11Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 5 at NYJ 35Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 8 at NO 18Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 12 at NO 47Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 19 at NYJ 37Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 16 at NYJ 40Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 12 at NYJ 38Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 6 at NO 39Q4, down 13gogolean0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 13 at NYJ 32Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 10 at NO 42Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21NYJ v NO4th & 7 at NYJ 35Q4, down 23gopuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 2 at NYJ 37Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.6
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 11 at NE 21Q2, down 21fgfguncertain0.0
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 4 at NYJ 41Q2, down 25puntgoconfident0.2
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 11 at NE 44Q3, down 39gopuntuncertain-0.0
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & goal at NE 8Q4, down 32gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 4 at NYJ 48Q4, down 32gopuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28NYJ v NE4th & 8 at NE 20Q4, down 32gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 10 at NYJ 35Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 6 at NYJ 37Q1, down 7puntgouncertain-0.1
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 1 at BUF 49Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 1 at NYJ 34Q2, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 14 at BUF 41Q2, down 21puntfglean0.1
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 1 at NYJ 39Q3, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 19 at NYJ 27Q3, down 29puntgouncertain0.0
2026-01-04NYJ v BUF4th & 6 at NYJ 7Q3, down 29puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 12 at NYJ 18Q1, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 2 at TEN 40Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 1 at TEN 22Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 5 at TEN 14Q2, up 4fggoconfident1.1
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 8 at TEN 36Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 10 at TEN 32Q3, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 1 at NYJ 29Q4, up 17puntgoconfident0.9
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 46Q4, up 17puntpuntlean0.0
2026-09-13NYJ v TEN4th & 4 at TEN 34Q4, up 17fgfglean0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 7 at NYJ 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 9 at NYJ 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 17 at NYJ 6Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 9 at GB 48Q3, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 27 at NYJ 43Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 6 at GB 14Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 3 at NYJ 31Q4, up 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 1 at midfieldQ4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20NYJ v GB4th & 18 at NYJ 22QOT, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 1 at NYJ 40Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.8
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 9 at NYJ 45Q1, tiedpuntgolean0.4
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 15 at NYJ 15Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 23 at DET 24Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-27NYJ v DET4th & 6 at DET 23Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 6 at NYJ 5Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 24 at NYJ 18Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 5 at CHI 18Q2, down 7fggoconfident1.6
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 4 at NYJ 35Q2, down 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 12 at CHI 41Q3, down 10puntfgconfident2.1
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 9 at CHI 12Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-04NYJ v CHI4th & 4 at NYJ 38Q3, down 14puntgoconfident1.8
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 21 at NYJ 24Q1, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 15 at NYJ 29Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 10 at NYJ 30Q2, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 12 at CLE 48Q2, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 3 at CLE 47Q3, up 1puntgoconfident1.5
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 7 at CLE 36Q4, up 1fgfguncertain0.0
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 1 at NYJ 40Q4, up 4puntgoconfident2.7
2026-10-11NYJ v CLE4th & 4 at NYJ 30Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 20 at NE 24Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 26 at NYJ 4Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 2 at NE 30Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 1 at NE 39Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 4 at NYJ 30Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.3
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 13 at NE 18Q3, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-18NYJ v NE4th & 10 at NE 22Q4, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & 4 at NYJ 43Q2, down 7puntgolean0.2
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & 1 at MIA 29Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & 9 at MIA 22Q3, down 14fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & goal at MIA 15Q4, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & 10 at NYJ 27Q4, down 4puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-25NYJ v MIA4th & 4 at NYJ 41Q4, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & goal at LV 3Q1, tiedfggoconfident3.1
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 2 at LV 17Q1, down 4fggoconfident3.1
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 1 at LV 12Q2, down 1gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 16 at LV 21Q2, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 3 at NYJ 42Q3, up 2puntgoconfident1.4
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 9 at NYJ 25Q4, down 5puntgoconfident0.7
2026-11-01NYJ v LV4th & 10 at LV 13Q4, down 5fggoconfident3.5
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & goal at KC 5Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.5
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 6 at KC 30Q1, up 3fgfglean0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 14 at KC 31Q2, down 1fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 7 at KC 36Q2, down 5fggoconfident1.8
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 15 at KC 35Q2, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 10 at NYJ 33Q3, down 9puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 23 at NYJ 17Q3, down 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 3 at KC 20Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 23 at NYJ 7Q4, down 16puntgouncertain0.0
2026-11-08NYJ v KC4th & 9 at KC 37Q4, down 23gofguncertain0.0