Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Antonio Pierce

Head coach · LV · 2023–2024

9–17Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2024LV4–1312818.843.871.13.21
2023LV5–47514.733.374.72.43

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.011 (90% interval −0.093 to +0.128) over 203 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 43Q4, down 6puntgoconfident7.3
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 2 at DEN 42Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident4.8
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 2 at TB 44Q3, down 4puntgoconfident4.1
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 1 at LV 48Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident3.6
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 14Q4, down 9fggoconfident3.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 2 at LV 48Q2, down 7puntgoconfident3.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 2 at TB 6Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.7
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 8 at IND 42Q2, down 11puntfgconfident2.6
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 1 at LV 29Q4, down 4puntgoconfident2.5
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 4 at IND 45Q4, down 7puntgoconfident2.4
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 1 at LV 39Q2, up 1puntgoconfident2.2
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & goal at DEN 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident2.0
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 5 at IND 42Q1, down 4puntgouncertain1.9
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 3 at DEN 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.8
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 5 at MIN 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
Every graded 4th down (203)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 9 at LV 35Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 2 at LV 28Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 1 at NYG 5Q2, up 21fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 4 at NYG 28Q3, up 24fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 6 at LV 29Q3, up 27puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 7 at LV 28Q4, up 21puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 5 at NYG 23Q4, up 21fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 2 at LV 36Q4, up 24puntpuntlean0.0
2023-11-05LV v NYG4th & 4 at NYG 34Q4, up 24gopuntlean0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 1 at LV 34Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 22Q1, down 3fggoconfident1.1
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 9 at LV 26Q2, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 29 at NYJ 45Q2, down 6puntfgconfident0.5
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 9 at NYJ 36Q2, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 14 at LV 27Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 25Q3, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 9 at NYJ 22Q3, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 1 at LV 44Q4, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2023-11-12LV v NYJ4th & 10 at LV 40Q4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 16 at LV 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 11 at MIA 16Q1, tiedfgfglean0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 7 at LV 10Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 8 at LV 27Q2, down 4puntpuntlean0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 7 at MIA 29Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 2 at LV 40Q3, down 1puntgoconfident0.7
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 1 at LV 34Q3, down 4puntgoconfident1.4
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 11 at LV 35Q4, down 7puntgouncertain0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 3 at MIA 31Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2023-11-19LV v MIA4th & 6 at MIA 24Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 1 at KC 12Q1, up 7fggolean1.1
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 8 at LV 38Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 4 at LV 31Q3, down 7puntgouncertain-0.1
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 6 at KC 16Q3, down 7fgfglean0.0
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 10 at KC 44Q4, down 11puntfgconfident1.4
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 1 at LV 19Q4, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2023-11-26LV v KC4th & 21 at LV 30Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 1 at LV 44Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 21 at LV 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 1 at LV 43Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 5 at MIN 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 15 at LV 22Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 1 at LV 48Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident3.6
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 5 at LV 33Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 4 at LV 17Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 6 at LV 35Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-10LV v MIN4th & 4 at LV 19Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 2 at LV 26Q2, up 21puntgoconfident0.2
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 4 at LV 36Q2, up 21puntpuntuncertain0.0
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 10 at LV 25Q3, up 42puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 3 at LV 39Q3, up 42puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 32Q4, up 49puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-14LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 34Q4, up 42puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 14 at LV 14Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 4 at KC 6Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.2
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 10 at LV 25Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 3 at LV 43Q2, down 4puntgouncertain0.2
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 7 at LV 48Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 12 at LV 41Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 10 at KC 17Q3, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-25LV v KC4th & 4 at LV 25Q4, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 9 at IND 21Q1, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 5 at LV 38Q1, down 4puntpuntlean0.0
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 5 at IND 42Q1, down 4puntgouncertain1.9
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 6 at IND 48Q2, down 4puntgoconfident1.4
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 8 at IND 42Q2, down 11puntfgconfident2.6
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 4 at IND 45Q4, down 7puntgoconfident2.4
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 10 at LV 38Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & 6 at IND 15Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.4
2023-12-31LV v IND4th & goal at IND 1Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & 8 at LV 23Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & 6 at DEN 31Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & 8 at LV 23Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & 7 at LV 27Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & 6 at LV 24Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LV v DEN4th & goal at DEN 3Q4, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 41Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 2 at LV 17Q2, up 4puntpuntlean0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 28 at LV 39Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 2 at LV 38Q3, up 1puntgoconfident1.4
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 7 at LAC 31Q3, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 14Q4, down 9fggoconfident3.0
2024-09-08LV v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 43Q4, down 6puntgoconfident7.3
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 18 at LV 16Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 12 at LV 40Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 4 at LV 46Q1, down 3puntgoconfident0.4
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 35Q2, down 3fggolean0.3
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 14 at BAL 33Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 2 at BAL 25Q3, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & goal at BAL 6Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.2
2024-09-15LV v BAL4th & 3 at BAL 20Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 4 at LV 36Q1, down 7puntpuntlean0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 39Q2, down 7gogolean0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 2 at LV 48Q2, down 7puntgoconfident3.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 17 at LV 26Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 6 at LV 31Q3, down 14puntpuntuncertain0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 1 at LV 37Q3, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 2 at LV 38Q3, down 20puntgoconfident1.2
2024-09-22LV v CAR4th & 5 at LV 35Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 21 at LV 5Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 10 at CLE 34Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 4 at CLE 15Q3, tiedfgfglean0.0
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 10 at LV 41Q4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 3 at LV 45Q4, up 4puntgolean1.6
2024-09-29LV v CLE4th & 15 at LV 15Q4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 10 at DEN 22Q1, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 8 at LV 32Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 2 at DEN 42Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident4.8
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 6 at LV 17Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 17 at LV 28Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 16 at LV 14Q3, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-06LV v DEN4th & 17 at LV 15Q4, down 16gopuntconfident0.0
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 4 at LV 31Q1, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 1 at LV 39Q2, up 1puntgoconfident2.2
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 3 at LV 48Q2, down 5gofglean0.2
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 17 at LV 34Q3, down 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 6 at LV 34Q3, down 8puntpuntlean0.0
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 2 at PIT 9Q4, down 22gogoconfident0.0
2024-10-13LV v PIT4th & 5 at LV 35Q4, down 19gogouncertain0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 4 at LV 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 11 at LV 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 5 at LA 20Q2, tiedfgfguncertain0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 7 at LA 48Q2, up 3puntgoconfident1.5
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 8 at LV 12Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 7 at LA 20Q3, down 14fgfglean0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 5 at LA 9Q4, down 11fggoconfident1.1
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & 1 at LA 42Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2024-10-20LV v LA4th & goal at LA 9Q4, down 8fggoconfident0.6
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & 12 at KC 36Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & 8 at LV 32Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & 9 at LV 31Q3, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & goal at KC 14Q3, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & goal at KC 3Q3, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2024-10-27LV v KC4th & 1 at KC 32Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 4 at LV 48Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident1.1
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 12 at CIN 28Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 9 at LV 48Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 8 at LV 32Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.1
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 14 at LV 22Q3, down 21puntgolean0.0
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 15 at LV 15Q4, down 21puntgolean0.0
2024-11-03LV v CIN4th & 12 at CIN 36Q4, down 14gogouncertain0.0
2024-11-17LV v MIA4th & goal at MIA 9Q1, down 7fgfglean0.0
2024-11-17LV v MIA4th & goal at MIA 4Q2, down 7fggoconfident0.6
2024-11-17LV v MIA4th & 11 at LV 40Q3, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-17LV v MIA4th & 1 at LV 39Q3, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2024-11-17LV v MIA4th & 3 at LV 49Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 3 at DEN 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.8
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 11 at LV 7Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 15 at DEN 16Q2, up 1fgfgconfident0.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 43Q3, down 3puntfglean0.4
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 4 at LV 17Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 10 at DEN 35Q4, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & goal at DEN 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident2.0
2024-11-24LV v DEN4th & 1 at DEN 11Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 19 at LV 31Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & goal at KC 9Q2, down 3fgfguncertain0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 4 at KC 38Q2, tiedfgfglean0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 11 at LV 45Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 1 at KC 30Q3, down 7gogolean0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 22 at KC 37Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 9 at LV 28Q4, down 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-11-29LV v KC4th & 11 at KC 40Q4, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 20 at LV 10Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 12 at LV 39Q1, down 14puntpuntlean0.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 2 at TB 6Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.7
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 1 at TB 14Q3, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 2 at TB 44Q3, down 4puntgoconfident4.1
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 1 at LV 29Q4, down 4puntgoconfident2.5
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 5 at TB 29Q4, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & goal at TB 8Q4, down 11fggoconfident1.5
2024-12-08LV v TB4th & 1 at midfieldQ4, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 1 at LV 37Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 9 at LV 21Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 33Q2, down 7fgfglean0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 22 at LV 34Q3, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 15 at LV 45Q3, down 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 2 at LV 11Q3, down 9puntgoconfident0.9
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 10 at LV 41Q4, down 12puntgoconfident0.6
2024-12-16LV v ATL4th & 8 at LV 34Q4, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 22 at LV 23Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 20 at LV 16Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 6 at JAX 31Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 5 at JAX 19Q2, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 6 at JAX 41Q2, up 6puntgouncertain1.4
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 5 at LV 35Q3, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 14 at LV 31Q3, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 5 at JAX 28Q3, up 6fgfglean0.0
2024-12-22LV v JAX4th & 10 at JAX 48Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & goal at NO 13Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 1 at LV 15Q1, up 3puntgolean1.2
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 5 at NO 21Q2, down 4fgfguncertain0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 4 at NO 36Q3, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 5 at LV 29Q3, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 3 at NO 7Q4, up 6fggouncertain0.4
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 7 at NO 48Q4, up 15puntpuntuncertain0.0
2024-12-29LV v NO4th & 4 at NO 43Q4, up 15puntpuntlean0.0
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 2 at LV 38Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.8
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 4 at LV 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 4 at LAC 22Q1, tiedfggolean0.6
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 7 at LV 33Q2, up 4puntgolean1.0
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 29Q3, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 10 at LAC 18Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-01-05LV v LAC4th & 7 at LAC 40Q4, down 21gogolean0.0