Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Ben Johnson

Head coach · CHI · 2025–2026

18–8Regular season
1–1Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2026CHI7–26229.050.072.61.68
2025CHI11–61–114528.350.374.53.02

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.028 (90% interval −0.052 to +0.117) over 207 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 2 at CHI 45Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident4.9
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 6Q2, up 1fggoconfident4.3
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 2 at CHI 17Q4, down 2puntgoconfident3.8
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & goal at NYG 4Q3, down 10fggoconfident3.8
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 9 at DET 44Q1, down 3puntgoconfident3.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 5 at CHI 31Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident2.9
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 5 at GB 9Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.8
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 26 at LV 40Q2, down 4puntfgconfident2.6
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 2 at CHI 40Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.6
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 6 at WAS 30Q4, down 1fggoconfident2.4
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 3 at PHI 44Q3, up 7puntgoconfident2.3
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & 2 at NYJ 12Q2, up 4fggoconfident2.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & goal at MIN 5Q4, down 3fggoconfident1.9
2026-09-13CHI v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 22Q2, tiedfggoconfident1.8
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 36Q2, tiedpuntgolean1.8
Every graded 4th down (207)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 6 at CHI 42Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 24Q2, up 4gogouncertain0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 8 at CHI 37Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 2 at MIN 24Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 10 at CHI 22Q3, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 9 at CHI 43Q3, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 18 at MIN 32Q4, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 19 at CHI 16Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-08CHI v MIN4th & 14 at CHI 43Q4, down 3puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 2 at CHI 18Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 1 at CHI 37Q2, down 7gogolean0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 9 at CHI 25Q3, down 14puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 5 at CHI 46Q3, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 34 at CHI 22Q3, down 24puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-14CHI v DET4th & 4 at CHI 23Q4, down 31puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & 12 at CHI 17Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & 9 at CHI 36Q2, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & 10 at DAL 11Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & goal at DAL 4Q3, up 10gogouncertain0.0
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & 6 at DAL 44Q4, up 17puntgoconfident0.2
2025-09-21CHI v DAL4th & 3 at CHI 27Q4, up 17puntgouncertain0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 3 at CHI 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 14 at LV 28Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 1 at CHI 40Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 26 at LV 40Q2, down 4puntfgconfident2.6
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 21 at LV 25Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 9 at LV 34Q2, down 8fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 6 at CHI 36Q3, down 5puntgoconfident1.7
2025-09-28CHI v LV4th & 24 at LV 33Q4, down 5fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 4 at WAS 29Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.3
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 8 at WAS 30Q1, up 3fgfguncertain0.0
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 1 at WAS 31Q2, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 12 at CHI 38Q2, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 18 at WAS 23Q3, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 6 at WAS 30Q4, down 1fggoconfident2.4
2025-10-13CHI v WAS4th & 2 at CHI 17Q4, down 2puntgoconfident3.8
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 4 at CHI 41Q1, tiedpuntgolean0.2
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 7 at NO 9Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.2
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 8 at NO 21Q2, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 4 at CHI 49Q2, up 20puntgoconfident-0.0
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & goal at NO 6Q3, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 14 at CHI 32Q4, up 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 11 at NO 15Q4, up 9fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-19CHI v NO4th & 3 at NO 26Q4, up 12gofgconfident0.0
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & goal at BAL 14Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & 7 at BAL 22Q1, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & 28 at CHI 35Q2, down 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 40Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & 3 at CHI 35Q3, down 7puntgoconfident1.2
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & 5 at BAL 30Q4, down 10fggolean0.4
2025-10-26CHI v BAL4th & goal at BAL 1Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & goal at CIN 2Q1, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 1 at CIN 25Q1, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 2 at CHI 26Q2, up 4puntgoconfident1.5
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 6Q2, up 1fggoconfident4.3
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 10 at CIN 29Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 10 at CIN 18Q4, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-02CHI v CIN4th & 5 at CHI 9Q4, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 4 at NYG 30Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 4 at CHI 49Q1, up 7puntgoconfident1.5
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 36Q2, tiedpuntgolean1.8
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 2 at NYG 48Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 4 at NYG 33Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 5 at CHI 41Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.7
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & goal at NYG 4Q3, down 10fggoconfident3.8
2025-11-09CHI v NYG4th & 3 at CHI 43Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 9 at CHI 11Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 9 at CHI 21Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 4 at CHI 43Q2, down 3puntgoconfident1.6
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 5 at MIN 20Q2, up 4fggouncertain-0.1
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 1 at CHI 29Q2, up 7puntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 36Q3, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 15Q3, up 10fggouncertain0.2
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 23 at CHI 19Q4, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 27Q4, up 6fgfguncertain0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 10 at MIN 48Q4, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16CHI v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 31Q4, down 1fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 6 at CHI 33Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 1 at CHI 39Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 1 at CHI 36Q3, up 3puntgoconfident1.2
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 2 at CHI 40Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.6
2025-11-23CHI v PIT4th & 7 at CHI 47Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 25Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 10 at PHI 12Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 20 at CHI 23Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 10 at CHI 34Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 3 at PHI 44Q3, up 7puntgoconfident2.3
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 37Q3, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-28CHI v PHI4th & 4 at PHI 30Q4, up 9gogouncertain0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 15 at CHI 23Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 15 at GB 41Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 7 at CHI 40Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 1 at GB 39Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 7 at GB 15Q2, down 7fggoconfident0.7
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 9 at CHI 38Q2, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 7 at GB 23Q3, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2025-12-07CHI v GB4th & 1 at GB 14Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 9 at CLE 46Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & goal at CLE 17Q2, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 1 at CHI 19Q2, up 14puntgoconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 3 at CLE 42Q2, up 14gofgconfident0.4
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 3 at CLE 46Q3, up 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 7 at CHI 42Q3, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 23 at CHI 46Q4, up 25puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14CHI v CLE4th & 11 at CLE 23Q4, up 25fgfglean0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 1 at GB 4Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 13 at GB 45Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 9 at midfieldQ2, down 6puntpuntlean0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 8 at GB 28Q3, down 6fggouncertain0.7
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 4 at CHI 21Q3, down 3puntgoconfident0.8
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 19 at GB 33Q4, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 1 at GB 48Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 4 at GB 25Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.8
2025-12-20CHI v GB4th & 4 at GB 6Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & 3 at CHI 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & 4 at CHI 22Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & 7 at CHI 34Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & 5 at SF 31Q3, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & goal at SF 11Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-28CHI v SF4th & 5 at SF 26Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 9 at DET 44Q1, down 3puntgoconfident3.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 10 at CHI 31Q2, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 1 at DET 49Q2, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 2 at DET 30Q2, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 4 at CHI 34Q3, down 13puntgoconfident1.4
2026-01-04CHI v DET4th & 5 at CHI 31Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident2.9
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 5 at GB 9Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.8
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 2 at CHI 38Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 6 at GB 40Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 5 at CHI 32Q2, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 4 at GB 37Q2, down 18gogolean0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 14 at GB 16Q3, down 18fgfgconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 1 at GB 6Q3, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 19 at GB 33Q4, down 15fgfgconfident0.0
2026-01-10CHI v GB4th & 8 at CHI 43Q4, down 11gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 2 at LA 21Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & goal at LA 3Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 5 at CHI 25Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 1 at LA 32Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 4 at LA 29Q2, tiedfggoconfident1.5
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 6 at CHI 32Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 2 at CHI 45Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident4.9
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & goal at LA 2Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 4 at LA 14Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-18CHI v LA4th & 1 at CHI 47QOT, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13CHI v CAR4th & 1 at CHI 21Q2, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13CHI v CAR4th & 5 at CHI 30Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13CHI v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 22Q2, tiedfggoconfident1.8
2026-09-13CHI v CAR4th & 9 at CHI 21Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 32Q1, down 3fggolean0.9
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 8 at CHI 14Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 33Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 29 at MIN 49Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 3 at CHI 34Q3, down 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 7 at CHI 43Q4, down 3puntgoconfident1.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 8Q4, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & goal at MIN 5Q4, down 3fggoconfident1.9
2026-09-20CHI v MIN4th & 2 at MIN 12Q4, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 32Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & 6 at midfieldQ1, up 7puntgoconfident0.9
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & goal at PHI 3Q2, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & goal at PHI 11Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 30Q3, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & 12 at CHI 13Q3, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-28CHI v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 34Q4, up 20gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 1Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 21Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 1Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & 2 at NYJ 12Q2, up 4fggoconfident2.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & 6 at NYJ 12Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-04CHI v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 3Q4, up 14fgfglean0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 15 at CHI 38Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 6 at CHI 29Q2, down 14puntgolean0.5
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & goal at GB 1Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 10 at CHI 10Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 11 at GB 25Q3, down 13fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 3 at CHI 20Q3, down 13puntgoconfident1.1
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 4 at CHI 39Q3, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & goal at GB 9Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 3 at GB 40Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11CHI v GB4th & 21 at CHI 21Q4, down 24gopuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 48Q2, up 14puntpuntlean0.0
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 7 at ATL 38Q2, up 14fggoconfident0.9
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 1 at CHI 40Q2, up 7puntgoconfident1.7
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 12 at CHI 49Q3, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 11 at ATL 32Q4, up 21fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 13 at ATL 42Q4, up 24puntfglean0.0
2026-10-18CHI v ATL4th & 11 at CHI 23Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 7 at NE 25Q1, tiedfggoconfident0.7
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 7 at CHI 24Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 1 at NE 20Q2, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 8 at NE 13Q2, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 8 at CHI 28Q3, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 2 at NE 43Q4, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 11 at NE 35Q4, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-22CHI v NE4th & 15 at NE 40Q4, up 6fgpuntuncertain0.2
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 1 at CHI 44Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 2 at CHI 12Q1, up 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 6 at CHI 25Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 4 at SEA 25Q2, up 4fgfguncertain0.0
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 2 at SEA 20Q2, up 7fggoconfident0.9
2026-11-02CHI v SEA4th & 2 at CHI 25Q3, up 4puntgouncertain0.4
2026-11-08CHI v TB4th & 4 at TB 7Q2, up 11fggoconfident0.4
2026-11-08CHI v TB4th & 3 at CHI 27Q3, up 4puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-11-08CHI v TB4th & 10 at CHI 25Q3, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08CHI v TB4th & 9 at CHI 14Q3, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08CHI v TB4th & 12 at TB 46Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0