Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Bill Callahan

Head coach · LV/WAS · 2002–2019

18–25Regular season
2–1Playoffs
3Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2019WAS3–8827.337.864.62.56
2003LV4–12–––––
2002LV11–52–1–––––

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.079 (90% interval −0.253 to +0.131) over 82 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 4 at WAS 41Q2, up 4puntgoconfident3.1
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 5 at WAS 49Q2, up 4puntgoconfident2.7
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 25Q4, tiedfggoconfident2.5
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 4 at DET 24Q4, down 3fggoconfident2.4
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 41Q2, down 7puntgolean1.9
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 8 at DET 10Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.9
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 4 at PHI 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 6 at midfieldQ4, down 8puntgoconfident1.4
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 1 at WAS 34Q2, down 10puntgoconfident1.3
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 3 at CAR 43Q2, down 8puntgoconfident1.2
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 4 at WAS 31Q3, down 14puntgoconfident1.1
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 3 at WAS 38Q2, up 7puntgoconfident0.9
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 6 at WAS 29Q4, down 6puntgoconfident0.8
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 11Q2, down 10fggoconfident0.8
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 6 at CAR 7Q1, down 14fggoconfident0.8
Every graded 4th down (82)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 1 at WAS 34Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.6
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 2 at WAS 26Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 7 at WAS 31Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 3 at WAS 38Q2, up 7puntgoconfident0.9
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & goal at MIA 3Q3, up 11fggoconfident0.6
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 9 at MIA 37Q4, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 6 at WAS 27Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 3 at WAS 19Q4, up 7puntpuntlean0.0
2019-10-13WAS v MIA4th & 5 at WAS 49Q4, up 7puntpuntlean0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 8 at SF 21Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 5 at WAS 15Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 1 at SF 28Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 13 at WAS 9Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 14 at WAS 43Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-20WAS v SF4th & 6 at WAS 29Q4, down 6puntgoconfident0.8
2019-10-24WAS v MIN4th & goal at MIN 3Q2, down 3fggoconfident0.1
2019-10-24WAS v MIN4th & goal at MIN 12Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2019-10-24WAS v MIN4th & 3 at WAS 28Q3, down 7puntgoconfident0.0
2019-10-24WAS v MIN4th & 10 at MIN 25Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2019-10-24WAS v MIN4th & 13 at WAS 22Q4, down 10puntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 2 at WAS 33Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.6
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 6 at WAS 44Q1, down 7puntgouncertain-0.1
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 11Q2, down 10fggoconfident0.8
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 8 at BUF 15Q2, down 14fgfguncertain0.0
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 2 at WAS 45Q3, down 11puntgoconfident0.3
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 6 at BUF 21Q3, down 11fgfglean0.0
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 10 at BUF 46Q4, down 8puntgoconfident0.6
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 19 at WAS 4Q4, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-03WAS v BUF4th & 4 at WAS 44Q4, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 15 at WAS 36Q1, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 10 at WAS 14Q1, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 19 at WAS 12Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 20 at NYJ 26Q2, down 13fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 5 at NYJ 11Q2, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 1 at WAS 34Q2, down 10puntgoconfident1.3
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 7 at NYJ 31Q3, down 17gofgconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 19 at WAS 22Q3, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-17WAS v NYJ4th & 10 at WAS 39Q4, down 23puntgolean0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 8 at DET 10Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.9
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 7 at WAS 14Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 17 at DET 19Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 2 at WAS 13Q2, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 7 at WAS 44Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 22 at WAS 9Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 17 at WAS 15Q4, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24WAS v DET4th & 4 at DET 24Q4, down 3fggoconfident2.4
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 21 at WAS 14Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 6 at CAR 7Q1, down 14fggoconfident0.8
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 8 at CAR 24Q2, down 11fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 15 at WAS 25Q2, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 3 at CAR 43Q2, down 8puntgoconfident1.2
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 15 at CAR 18Q3, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 5 at WAS 40Q3, up 1puntpuntlean0.0
2019-12-01WAS v CAR4th & 11 at WAS 21Q3, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 20 at WAS 15Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 5 at WAS 13Q1, down 7puntgolean0.1
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 1 at WAS 21Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.6
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 12 at GB 47Q2, down 14puntpuntlean0.0
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 19 at WAS 16Q3, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 8 at GB 34Q3, down 11fgfglean0.0
2019-12-08WAS v GB4th & 6 at midfieldQ4, down 8puntgoconfident1.4
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 4 at PHI 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 4 at WAS 41Q2, up 4puntgoconfident3.1
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 5 at WAS 49Q2, up 4puntgoconfident2.7
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 5 at WAS 16Q3, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 12 at PHI 35Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-15WAS v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 25Q4, tiedfggoconfident2.5
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 41Q2, down 7puntgolean1.9
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 7 at WAS 22Q2, down 7puntpuntlean0.0
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 16 at WAS 32Q3, down 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 4 at WAS 31Q3, down 14puntgoconfident1.1
2019-12-22WAS v NYG4th & 17 at WAS 36Q4, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 4 at DAL 18Q2, down 6gofguncertain0.4
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 7 at DAL 13Q2, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 18 at WAS 17Q2, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 39Q2, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 8 at DAL 24Q3, down 10fgfglean0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & goal at DAL 10Q3, down 14fggouncertain0.2
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 19 at WAS 16Q3, down 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 2 at WAS 49Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 8 at WAS 27Q4, down 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29WAS v DAL4th & 5 at WAS 30Q4, down 31puntpuntconfident0.0