Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Brian Schottenheimer

Head coach · DAL · 2025–2026

11–14–1Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2026DAL4–55621.455.464.32.87
2025DAL7–9–110530.556.272.41.95

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.048 (90% interval −0.137 to +0.048) over 161 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & goal at DEN 6Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.4
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 3 at DET 11Q4, down 10fggoconfident4.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 1 at DAL 39Q4, up 3puntgoconfident3.7
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 41Q3, down 4fggoconfident3.7
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 4 at GB 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident3.1
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 3 at WAS 29Q1, down 1fggoconfident3.1
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 4 at IND 46Q2, up 3puntgoconfident2.4
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 3 at LV 32Q1, down 3fggoconfident2.3
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 3 at KC 31Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.3
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at midfieldQ2, up 3puntgoconfident2.2
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 4 at DAL 41Q3, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 16 at HOU 47Q2, down 7fgpuntconfident2.1
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 2 at CHI 34Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.7
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & goal at ARI 8Q3, down 17fggoconfident1.7
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 6 at DAL 44Q3, down 13puntgoconfident1.6
Every graded 4th down (161)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-09-04DAL v PHI4th & 10 at PHI 23Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-04DAL v PHI4th & 10 at DAL 49Q4, down 4puntgouncertain-0.1
2025-09-04DAL v PHI4th & 7 at DAL 27Q4, down 4puntgoconfident1.2
2025-09-04DAL v PHI4th & 3 at DAL 45Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 6 at DAL 36Q1, down 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 8 at DAL 33Q2, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 18 at NYG 33Q2, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 13 at NYG 26Q4, up 1fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 3 at DAL 36Q4, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 10 at DAL 42QOT, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14DAL v NYG4th & 10 at DAL 38QOT, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 2 at CHI 34Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.7
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 8 at CHI 15Q2, down 11fgfglean0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 4 at DAL 30Q2, down 3puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 15 at DAL 46Q3, down 10puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 2 at DAL 16Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & 5 at DAL 27Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21DAL v CHI4th & goal at CHI 1Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 6 at NYJ 16Q1, down 3fggouncertain-0.2
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 9 at DAL 30Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 3 at DAL 43Q3, up 20puntgoconfident0.2
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 9 at DAL 26Q3, up 20puntpuntlean0.0
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 6 at DAL 39Q4, up 24puntgoconfident0.0
2025-10-05DAL v NYJ4th & 7 at DAL 32Q4, up 24puntgoconfident0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & 4 at DAL 32Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & goal at CAR 5Q1, down 3fggolean-0.1
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & 1 at CAR 3Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 30Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & 6 at DAL 35Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & goal at CAR 9Q4, down 3fgfglean0.0
2025-10-12DAL v CAR4th & 18 at DAL 38Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 3 at WAS 29Q1, down 1fggoconfident3.1
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 9 at DAL 41Q2, up 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 12 at WAS 43Q2, up 9fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 11 at DAL 38Q2, up 12puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 6 at WAS 11Q4, up 19fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-19DAL v WAS4th & 11 at WAS 49Q4, up 22puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & goal at DEN 6Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.4
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 18 at DAL 19Q1, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 20 at DAL 48Q2, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 1 at DAL 29Q2, down 10puntgoconfident1.3
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 3 at DEN 27Q3, down 17gogolean0.0
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 6 at DAL 44Q3, down 13puntgoconfident1.6
2025-10-26DAL v DEN4th & 6 at DAL 33Q4, down 20puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & goal at ARI 4Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & 22 at DAL 11Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & goal at ARI 8Q3, down 17fggoconfident1.7
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & 3 at ARI 21Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-03DAL v ARI4th & 28 at DAL 19Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 4 at DAL 32Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 3 at LV 32Q1, down 3fggoconfident2.3
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 1 at LV 5Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 7 at DAL 46Q4, up 15puntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-17DAL v LV4th & 1 at LV 4Q4, up 17gogouncertain0.0
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 3 at midfieldQ1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 6 at DAL 28Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.4
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 6 at DAL 12Q3, down 14puntgoconfident0.5
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 9 at PHI 33Q3, down 14fggouncertain0.5
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 13 at DAL 40Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & goal at PHI 1Q4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23DAL v PHI4th & 12 at PHI 24Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 4 at KC 48Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 3 at KC 31Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.3
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 2 at DAL 11Q3, up 3puntgolean1.0
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 8 at KC 18Q3, up 3fgfguncertain0.0
2025-11-27DAL v KC4th & 4 at KC 8Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 10 at DET 39Q1, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 14 at DAL 1Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 19 at DET 24Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 4 at DET 37Q2, down 11fggouncertain0.1
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 5 at DET 9Q3, down 18gogolean0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 19 at DET 45Q3, down 11fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 3 at DET 11Q4, down 10fggoconfident4.0
2025-12-04DAL v DET4th & 10 at DAL 31Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 2Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 2 at DAL 11Q1, up 7puntgouncertain-0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 3 at midfieldQ2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 10 at MIN 33Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 19Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 8Q3, tiedfggoconfident1.2
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 8 at MIN 23Q3, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 8 at MIN 41Q4, down 1fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14DAL v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 45Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 2 at LAC 39Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 14 at LAC 15Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 4 at DAL 41Q3, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 16Q3, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21DAL v LAC4th & 10 at DAL 46Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 1 at DAL 44Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 1 at midfieldQ1, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 2 at WAS 23Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 1 at WAS 10Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 7 at WAS 23Q2, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 18 at DAL 9Q3, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 8 at WAS 34Q3, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 7 at WAS 40Q4, up 7fgfglean0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 2 at DAL 45Q4, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 4 at WAS 33Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-25DAL v WAS4th & 1 at WAS 34Q4, up 7gopuntconfident0.1
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & goal at NYG 4Q1, down 3fggoconfident1.1
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & 2 at NYG 3Q2, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & 4 at DAL 18Q3, down 6puntgoconfident0.3
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 39Q3, down 14fggolean0.3
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & 1 at NYG 47Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04DAL v NYG4th & 10 at DAL 40Q4, down 17puntgoconfident0.2
2026-09-13DAL v NYG4th & 5 at DAL 33Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13DAL v NYG4th & 4 at DAL 43Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.0
2026-09-20DAL v WAS4th & 5 at WAS 6Q1, up 7fggoconfident1.0
2026-09-20DAL v WAS4th & 14 at DAL 31Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20DAL v WAS4th & 7 at WAS 26Q3, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-20DAL v WAS4th & 4 at WAS 42Q4, up 14fggoconfident0.6
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & goal at BAL 10Q1, tiedfggoconfident0.5
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at midfieldQ2, up 3puntgoconfident2.2
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 1 at DAL 44Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 20Q2, down 7fggolean0.3
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 4 at BAL 47Q3, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 41Q3, down 4fggoconfident3.7
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & 6 at DAL 28Q4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27DAL v BAL4th & goal at BAL 5Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 21Q1, down 7fggolean1.2
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 32Q2, down 7fggolean0.4
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 16 at DAL 26Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 11 at HOU 44Q2, down 4fggouncertain0.7
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 16 at HOU 47Q2, down 7fgpuntconfident2.1
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 6 at DAL 35Q4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04DAL v HOU4th & 4 at DAL 32Q4, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-08DAL v TB4th & 10 at DAL 44Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-08DAL v TB4th & 10 at TB 47Q2, tiedpuntgouncertain0.1
2026-10-08DAL v TB4th & 10 at DAL 18Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-08DAL v TB4th & 6 at TB 23Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-08DAL v TB4th & 3 at DAL 43Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 4 at GB 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident3.1
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 12 at DAL 30Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 2 at GB 38Q3, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 12 at DAL 41Q3, down 13puntgoconfident0.6
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 2 at midfieldQ4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 5 at GB 23Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18DAL v GB4th & 11 at GB 14Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-26DAL v PHI4th & 8 at PHI 37Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-26DAL v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 44Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-26DAL v PHI4th & 4 at DAL 8Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-26DAL v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 6Q4, up 7fggouncertain0.3
2026-10-26DAL v PHI4th & 6 at DAL 38Q4, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 1 at DAL 32Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 7 at DAL 4Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 14 at DAL 43Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 1 at midfieldQ3, up 11gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 5 at ARI 12Q3, up 11fggoconfident0.2
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 9 at DAL 40Q3, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 11 at ARI 17Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 13 at ARI 23Q4, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-01DAL v ARI4th & 15 at DAL 24QOT, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 6 at IND 26Q1, tiedfggoconfident0.7
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 2 at IND 10Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 9 at DAL 14Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 4 at IND 46Q2, up 3puntgoconfident2.4
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 18 at DAL 38Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 5 at DAL 17Q3, up 10puntpuntlean0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 8 at IND 9Q3, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 1 at DAL 39Q4, up 3puntgoconfident3.7
2026-11-08DAL v IND4th & 3 at IND 32Q4, tiedfggoconfident1.0