Coaches › Head coach
Bruce Arians
Head coach · ARI/TB · 2013–2021
80–48–1Regular season
6–3Playoffs
8Seasons
2012, 2014AP Coach of the Year
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | TB | 13–4 | 1–1 | 126 | 16.7 | 49.2 | 59.5 | 2.82 |
| 2020 | TB | 11–5 | 4–0 | 124 | 13.7 | 50.8 | 58.9 | 2.87 |
| 2019 | TB | 7–9 | 107 | 15.9 | 60.7 | 55.1 | 3.94 | |
| 2017 | ARI | 8–8 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2016 | ARI | 7–8–1 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2015 | ARI | 13–3 | 1–1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2014 | ARI | 11–5 | 0–1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2013 | ARI | 10–6 | – | – | – | – | – |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.080 (90% interval +0.011 to +0.153) over 357 decisions. Flagged worse than expected (Benjamini–Hochberg, 50% false discovery rate).
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at NO 8Q2, down 6 | fg | goconfident | 5.4 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 6 at TB 48Q4, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 5.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 2 at TB 42Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.7 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 1 at HOU 23Q3, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 4.4 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 6 at NYJ 39Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 4Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 43Q3, up 6 | punt | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 2 at TB 46Q3, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 3.8 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 2 at TB 32Q4, tied | punt | goconfident | 3.8 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 4 at TB 42Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 2 at TB 43Q3, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 1 at CHI 7Q4, down 1 | fg | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 5 at LA 48Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 3.2 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TB 30Q4, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.2 |
Every graded 4th down (357)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-08 | TB v SF | 4th & 4 at TB 30Q1, tied | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-08 | TB v SF | 4th & 12 at SF 48Q1, down 3 | punt | gouncertain | 0.3 |
| 2019-09-08 | TB v SF | 4th & goal at SF 2Q4, down 6 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-08 | TB v SF | 4th & 12 at SF 13Q4, down 6 | fg | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2019-09-08 | TB v SF | 4th & 6 at SF 37Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 14 at TB 43Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 2 at CAR 21Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 14 at TB 18Q2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at TB 44Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 13 at TB 5Q3, up 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 13 at CAR 24Q3, up 5 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 25 at TB 31Q4, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-12 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at CAR 14Q4, up 3 | fg | gouncertain | -0.2 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 1 at NYG 41Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 19 at NYG 29Q2, up 2 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 7 at NYG 9Q2, up 5 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 4 at NYG 34Q2, up 15 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 3 at NYG 49Q3, up 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 10 at TB 25Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 8 at TB 44Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 2 at NYG 5Q4, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 2.9 |
| 2019-09-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 1 at TB 31Q4, up 6 | punt | goconfident | 3.2 |
| 2019-09-29 | TB v LA | 4th & 19 at LA 46Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-29 | TB v LA | 4th & 12 at TB 23Q2, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-29 | TB v LA | 4th & 10 at LA 40Q3, up 8 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2019-09-29 | TB v LA | 4th & goal at LA 3Q4, up 5 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at TB 47Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 7 at TB 22Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 32Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 4 at NO 24Q2, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at NO 39Q3, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 2 at TB 43Q3, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 19 at TB 24Q4, down 14 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2019-10-06 | TB v NO | 4th & 28 at TB 21Q4, down 14 | punt | golean | 0.1 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 8 at midfieldQ1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q2, down 10 | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 35 at TB 11Q2, down 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 1 at TB 24Q3, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 6 at CAR 36Q3, down 20 | fg | golean | 0.4 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 10 at TB 27Q4, down 16 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 1 at CAR 17Q4, down 19 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-13 | TB v CAR | 4th & 10 at TB 45Q4, down 11 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 4Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 7 at TEN 45Q1, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 41Q2, down 11 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 13 at TEN 30Q2, down 11 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 6Q2, down 8 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 43Q3, up 6 | punt | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TB 30Q4, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.2 |
| 2019-10-27 | TB v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 32Q4, down 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 6 at TB 29Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.6 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 12 at TB 25Q2, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 4 at midfieldQ3, up 8 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 13 at SEA 23Q3, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 2 at TB 32Q4, tied | punt | goconfident | 3.8 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 6 at SEA 27Q4, down 3 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-03 | TB v SEA | 4th & 5 at SEA 35Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 9 at ARI 12Q2, up 1 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 3 at TB 44Q2, up 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 5 at TB 44Q2, up 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 8 at ARI 27Q3, up 4 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 12 at TB 36Q3, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-10 | TB v ARI | 4th & 3 at ARI 23Q4, tied | fg | golean | 0.1 |
| 2019-11-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2019-11-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 15 at TB 40Q2, down 13 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at NO 37Q3, down 13 | fg | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2019-11-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 11 at TB 41Q4, down 10 | punt | golean | 0.3 |
| 2019-11-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 10 at TB 33Q4, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-24 | TB v ATL | 4th & 2 at TB 33Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2019-11-24 | TB v ATL | 4th & 2 at TB 19Q3, up 15 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2019-11-24 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 14Q4, up 12 | fg | golean | 0.2 |
| 2019-11-24 | TB v ATL | 4th & 10 at TB 38Q4, up 12 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-11-24 | TB v ATL | 4th & 10 at ATL 43Q4, up 12 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 17 at JAX 41Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 7 at TB 48Q2, up 22 | punt | gouncertain | -0.1 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 6 at JAX 7Q2, up 22 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 1 at TB 49Q3, up 25 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 4 at JAX 37Q3, up 22 | go | golean | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 13 at TB 22Q4, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 11 at TB 2Q4, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-01 | TB v JAX | 4th & 5 at JAX 19Q4, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-08 | TB v IND | 4th & 10 at TB 21Q2, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-08 | TB v IND | 4th & 8 at TB 45Q3, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2019-12-08 | TB v IND | 4th & 10 at IND 26Q4, down 7 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-08 | TB v IND | 4th & 2 at IND 16Q4, down 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 7 at DET 44Q2, up 14 | punt | golean | 0.3 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 22 at TB 26Q2, up 18 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 9 at DET 28Q3, up 18 | fg | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 9 at TB 47Q3, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 1 at TB 45Q4, up 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-15 | TB v DET | 4th & 7 at DET 36Q4, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 2 at HOU 28Q1, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 10 at HOU 36Q1, down 10 | fg | golean | 0.6 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 10 at HOU 32Q1, down 10 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 5 at TB 48Q2, down 14 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 1 at HOU 23Q3, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 4.4 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 9 at TB 49Q4, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2019-12-21 | TB v HOU | 4th & 3 at HOU 40Q4, down 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & 3 at ATL 31Q1, down 10 | fg | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & 7 at TB 11Q1, down 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & goal at ATL 2Q2, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 26Q3, up 6 | fg | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & goal at ATL 16Q3, up 6 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & 16 at TB 14Q4, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2019-12-29 | TB v ATL | 4th & 9 at TB 41Q4, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 21Q1, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.5 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 19 at NO 36Q2, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 14 at TB 31Q2, down 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 13 at TB 23Q3, down 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 7 at NO 20Q3, down 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 12 at TB 20Q4, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 10 at TB 25Q4, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2020-09-13 | TB v NO | 4th & 7 at NO 14Q4, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-20 | TB v CAR | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q1, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.4 |
| 2020-09-20 | TB v CAR | 4th & 13 at TB 28Q2, up 21 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-20 | TB v CAR | 4th & 15 at CAR 46Q3, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-20 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at TB 42Q4, up 7 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-20 | TB v CAR | 4th & 8 at CAR 15Q4, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 4 at TB 48Q1, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 45Q1, up 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 24Q1, up 7 | fg | golean | 0.8 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 2 at DEN 49Q3, up 13 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 3 at TB 43Q3, up 15 | punt | golean | 0.2 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 1 at TB 42Q3, up 15 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 13 at DEN 17Q3, up 15 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-09-27 | TB v DEN | 4th & 7 at TB 31Q4, up 18 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-04 | TB v LAC | 4th & 14 at TB 21Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-04 | TB v LAC | 4th & 10 at TB 37Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-04 | TB v LAC | 4th & 6 at LAC 26Q2, down 14 | fg | golean | 0.4 |
| 2020-10-04 | TB v LAC | 4th & 25 at TB 35Q2, down 17 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-04 | TB v LAC | 4th & 5 at LAC 7Q4, up 4 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 6 at CHI 21Q1, tied | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 6 at TB 19Q1, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 1 at TB 19Q2, up 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 7 at CHI 17Q2, up 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 7 at CHI 28Q3, down 1 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 27 at TB 48Q3, up 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 1 at CHI 7Q4, down 1 | fg | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 12 at TB 14Q4, up 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-08 | TB v CHI | 4th & 6 at TB 41Q4, down 1 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 5 at TB 48Q2, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 2 at GB 32Q3, up 18 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 10 at TB 29Q3, up 21 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 7 at GB 37Q4, up 28 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-18 | TB v GB | 4th & 2 at TB 26Q4, up 28 | punt | gouncertain | -0.0 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 7 at TB 27Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 4 at TB 42Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 3 at LV 41Q2, up 4 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 3 at LV 10Q3, up 11 | fg | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2020-10-25 | TB v LV | 4th & 9 at TB 35Q3, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 5 at NYG 18Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 9 at NYG 48Q1, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 18 at TB 39Q2, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 1 at NYG 22Q2, down 11 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 2 at NYG 39Q3, down 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 3 at NYG 24Q3, down 8 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 18 at TB 24Q4, down 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-02 | TB v NYG | 4th & 1 at NYG 20Q4, up 5 | fg | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 32Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.5 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 11 at TB 24Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 8 at TB 4Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 25Q2, down 14 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at NO 38Q2, down 28 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & goal at NO 1Q3, down 31 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 7 at NO 42Q3, down 31 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-08 | TB v NO | 4th & 20 at NO 30Q4, down 38 | fg | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-15 | TB v CAR | 4th & goal at CAR 5Q2, down 7 | fg | goconfident | 2.4 |
| 2020-11-15 | TB v CAR | 4th & goal at CAR 6Q3, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | TB v CAR | 4th & goal at CAR 3Q3, up 9 | fg | golean | 0.1 |
| 2020-11-15 | TB v CAR | 4th & 3 at CAR 28Q4, up 12 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-15 | TB v CAR | 4th & 18 at CAR 22Q4, up 12 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 7 at TB 41Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at TB 49Q2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 8 at LA 20Q3, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at TB 26Q3, down 7 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 15 at TB 8Q3, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 2 at TB 42Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.7 |
| 2020-11-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 1 at LA 43Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & 6 at TB 46Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & 3 at TB 26Q1, down 3 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & 2 at TB 33Q1, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q1, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & goal at KC 8Q3, down 13 | fg | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2020-11-29 | TB v KC | 4th & 3 at KC 31Q4, down 17 | go | golean | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-13 | TB v MIN | 4th & 3 at TB 33Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2020-12-13 | TB v MIN | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q2, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2020-12-13 | TB v MIN | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q3, up 9 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | TB v MIN | 4th & 4 at MIN 30Q4, up 9 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 49Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 7 at TB 26Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 11 at TB 25Q2, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 18 at TB 48Q2, down 14 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 6 at ATL 9Q4, down 3 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-20 | TB v ATL | 4th & 3 at ATL 49Q4, up 4 | punt | goconfident | 3.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 14 at DET 49Q1, up 13 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 4 at DET 38Q2, up 27 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 3 at TB 25Q3, up 40 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 7 at DET 36Q4, up 40 | go | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 2 at DET 24Q4, up 40 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2020-12-26 | TB v DET | 4th & 12 at TB 30Q4, up 40 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-03 | TB v ATL | 4th & 10 at ATL 11Q1, up 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-03 | TB v ATL | 4th & 5 at ATL 20Q2, up 14 | fg | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2021-01-03 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 7Q2, up 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 3 at WAS 11Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 2.4 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 9 at TB 42Q1, up 3 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & goal at WAS 5Q2, up 8 | fg | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 12 at TB 37Q2, up 11 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q3, up 8 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 7 at WAS 20Q4, up 2 | fg | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-09 | TB v WAS | 4th & 2 at WAS 19Q4, up 5 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 32Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 16 at TB 19Q1, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q1, down 6 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at NO 8Q2, down 6 | fg | goconfident | 5.4 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q2, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 5 at NO 19Q2, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 5 at TB 41Q3, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.6 |
| 2021-01-17 | TB v NO | 4th & 9 at NO 18Q4, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-24 | TB v GB | 4th & 15 at TB 44Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-01-24 | TB v GB | 4th & 9 at GB 47Q2, up 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2021-01-24 | TB v GB | 4th & 4 at GB 45Q2, up 4 | go | puntlean | 0.1 |
| 2021-01-24 | TB v GB | 4th & 8 at GB 28Q4, up 5 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & 6 at TB 27Q1, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & 14 at TB 29Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & goal at KC 1Q2, up 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & 25 at KC 34Q3, up 19 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & 1 at KC 46Q4, up 22 | punt | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-02-07 | TB v KC | 4th & 4 at TB 19Q4, up 22 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-09 | TB v DAL | 4th & 2 at TB 33Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2021-09-09 | TB v DAL | 4th & 15 at midfieldQ2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-09 | TB v DAL | 4th & 5 at TB 38Q3, up 2 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-09 | TB v DAL | 4th & 10 at DAL 47Q4, up 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-09 | TB v DAL | 4th & 10 at DAL 18Q4, down 1 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 8 at TB 22Q1, up 7 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 5 at TB 48Q2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 25 at TB 8Q3, up 11 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 1 at TB 41Q3, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 17 at TB 39Q4, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-19 | TB v ATL | 4th & 1 at ATL 34Q4, up 16 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 6 at TB 29Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 1 at TB 20Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 5 at LA 48Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 3.2 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 24 at TB 22Q3, down 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & goal at LA 8Q3, down 17 | fg | golean | 0.8 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 2 at TB 48Q4, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-09-26 | TB v LA | 4th & 2 at LA 32Q4, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 5 at TB 45Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.2 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 7 at NE 11Q1, tied | fg | gouncertain | 0.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 7 at NE 18Q2, up 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 17 at TB 30Q2, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 10 at NE 26Q2, down 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 9 at TB 15Q3, down 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 2 at TB 40Q3, down 1 | punt | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & goal at NE 8Q4, down 1 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-03 | TB v NE | 4th & 8 at NE 30Q4, down 1 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-10 | TB v MIA | 4th & 16 at MIA 24Q2, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-10 | TB v MIA | 4th & 2 at TB 46Q3, up 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2021-10-14 | TB v PHI | 4th & 1 at TB 42Q2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2021-10-14 | TB v PHI | 4th & 4 at TB 45Q2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2021-10-14 | TB v PHI | 4th & 2 at TB 33Q3, up 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2021-10-14 | TB v PHI | 4th & 3 at PHI 46Q4, up 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 10 at TB 16Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 10 at TB 42Q2, up 21 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 10 at CHI 25Q2, up 21 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 1 at CHI 11Q2, up 25 | go | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 2 at CHI 46Q3, up 32 | punt | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & goal at CHI 1Q3, up 32 | go | golean | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & goal at CHI 4Q4, up 32 | fg | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-24 | TB v CHI | 4th & 11 at CHI 38Q4, up 35 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-31 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 32Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2021-10-31 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at NO 40Q2, tied | punt | goconfident | 2.1 |
| 2021-10-31 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at TB 38Q4, down 2 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-10-31 | TB v NO | 4th & 8 at TB 21Q4, down 9 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 8 at TB 27Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 1 at TB 33Q1, down 6 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & goal at WAS 7Q2, down 13 | fg | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 6 at WAS 47Q2, down 13 | go | fgconfident | 0.8 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 2 at TB 46Q3, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 3.8 |
| 2021-11-14 | TB v WAS | 4th & 6 at TB 48Q4, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 5.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & goal at NYG 7Q2, up 4 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 25 at midfieldQ2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 7 at NYG 22Q3, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 8 at TB 35Q4, up 17 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 4 at NYG 12Q4, up 17 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 20 at TB 9Q4, up 20 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-22 | TB v NYG | 4th & 6 at NYG 34Q4, up 20 | go | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-28 | TB v IND | 4th & 6 at TB 26Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-11-28 | TB v IND | 4th & 4 at TB 22Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2021-11-28 | TB v IND | 4th & 6 at TB 21Q1, down 3 | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2021-11-28 | TB v IND | 4th & 6 at TB 42Q4, up 4 | punt | golean | 0.7 |
| 2021-11-28 | TB v IND | 4th & goal at IND 6Q4, up 4 | fg | golean | 0.7 |
| 2021-12-05 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 38Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-05 | TB v ATL | 4th & 8 at TB 22Q1, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-05 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at TB 43Q3, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2021-12-05 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 48Q4, up 10 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2021-12-05 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 13Q4, up 10 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 3 at TB 31Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.7 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & goal at BUF 5Q2, up 7 | fg | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 5 at BUF 40Q2, up 21 | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 2 at BUF 34Q3, up 21 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 7 at TB 38Q3, up 14 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 2 at BUF 6Q4, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 9 at TB 11Q4, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-12 | TB v BUF | 4th & 16 at TB 35Q4, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 2 at TB 41Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 12 at TB 38Q1, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 4 at TB 42Q2, down 6 | punt | gouncertain | -0.1 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 13 at NO 27Q2, down 6 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 11 at NO 46Q2, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 2 at TB 33Q3, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 2.2 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 2 at TB 30Q3, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at NO 36Q3, down 6 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 6 at TB 36Q4, down 6 | punt | golean | 0.8 |
| 2021-12-19 | TB v NO | 4th & 20 at TB 15Q4, down 9 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 6 at TB 41Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at CAR 18Q2, up 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 3 at CAR 25Q2, up 4 | fg | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & goal at CAR 3Q3, up 13 | fg | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 11 at TB 24Q4, up 23 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 11 at CAR 30Q4, up 23 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2021-12-26 | TB v CAR | 4th & 11 at TB 49Q4, up 26 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 8 at NYJ 21Q2, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 11 at TB 48Q2, down 4 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 20 at TB 27Q3, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & goal at NYJ 4Q3, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 6 at NYJ 39Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2022-01-02 | TB v NYJ | 4th & 8 at NYJ 9Q4, down 7 | fg | goconfident | 3.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 7 at TB 30Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 2 at CAR 42Q2, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 3 at CAR 21Q2, down 7 | fg | gouncertain | 1.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at TB 6Q2, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 4 at TB 23Q3, up 10 | punt | golean | 0.2 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at CAR 22Q4, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-09 | TB v CAR | 4th & 9 at CAR 28Q4, up 24 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 3 at midfieldQ1, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.5 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & goal at PHI 16Q2, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 16 at TB 16Q2, up 17 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 10 at TB 20Q2, up 17 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 5 at TB 14Q3, up 17 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 10 at TB 34Q3, up 31 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 13 at TB 35Q4, up 31 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 2 at TB 39Q4, up 24 | punt | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 1 at PHI 14Q4, up 16 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 8 at TB 43Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at TB 26Q1, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 4 at LA 27Q1, down 10 | fg | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 7 at TB 17Q2, down 14 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at LA 30Q2, down 14 | fg | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 3 at TB 12Q3, down 17 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 11 at LA 13Q3, down 24 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at LA 29Q3, down 21 | go | fguncertain | -0.1 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 14 at LA 36Q4, down 14 | go | fglean | 0.1 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 9 at LA 31Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-01-23 | TB v LA | 4th & 1 at LA 9Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |