Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Darrell Bevell

Head coach · DET/JAX · 2020–2021

2–7Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2021JAX1–32920.762.158.65.85
2020DET1–42416.758.350.01.38

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.127 (90% interval −0.150 to +0.369) over 53 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 2Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.4
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 42Q3, down 10puntgoconfident3.7
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 4Q2, up 4fggoconfident3.6
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 3 at HOU 4Q1, down 7fggoconfident2.9
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & 4 at NYJ 21Q3, down 4fggoconfident2.8
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 17Q4, down 10fggoconfident2.7
2020-12-13DET v GB4th & 3 at DET 26Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.3
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 6 at JAX 8Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.3
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 7 at DET 40Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.2
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 5 at DET 13Q4, down 10puntgoconfident1.1
2020-12-20DET v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 43Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.8
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 6 at DET 44Q1, down 6puntgoconfident0.7
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 3 at JAX 32Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 8 at JAX 20Q4, down 7puntgoconfident0.7
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 8 at DET 43Q2, down 10puntgoconfident0.7
Every graded 4th down (53)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 1 at CHI 29Q1, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 8 at DET 43Q2, down 10puntgoconfident0.7
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 7 at DET 40Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.2
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 1 at CHI 35Q3, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-06DET v CHI4th & 5 at DET 13Q4, down 10puntgoconfident1.1
2020-12-13DET v GB4th & 3 at DET 26Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.3
2020-12-13DET v GB4th & 25 at DET 41Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-12-13DET v GB4th & 6 at DET 29Q3, down 7puntgolean0.4
2020-12-13DET v GB4th & goal at GB 14Q4, down 10fggoconfident0.4
2020-12-20DET v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 43Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.8
2020-12-20DET v TEN4th & 10 at TEN 35Q3, down 9fgfgconfident0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 6 at DET 44Q1, down 6puntgoconfident0.7
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 17 at DET 39Q1, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 6 at DET 14Q2, down 13puntpuntuncertain0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 11 at DET 37Q2, down 20puntgoconfident0.3
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 7 at DET 28Q2, down 27puntgoconfident0.1
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 10 at DET 30Q3, down 40puntgouncertain0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 2 at DET 41Q3, down 40puntpuntlean0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 17 at TB 40Q4, down 40puntpuntuncertain0.0
2020-12-26DET v TB4th & 9 at TB 32Q4, down 40gopuntconfident0.0
2021-01-03DET v MIN4th & 7 at DET 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-01-03DET v MIN4th & 9 at MIN 36Q2, down 1fgfguncertain0.0
2021-01-03DET v MIN4th & 15 at DET 43Q2, up 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-01-03DET v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 42Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 3 at HOU 4Q1, down 7fggoconfident2.9
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 17 at JAX 11Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 1 at HOU 38Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 14 at JAX 10Q3, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 8 at HOU 20Q3, down 13fgfgconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 42Q3, down 10puntgoconfident3.7
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 17Q4, down 10fggoconfident2.7
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 8 at JAX 20Q4, down 7puntgoconfident0.7
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 6 at JAX 8Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.3
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 10 at JAX 25Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-19JAX v HOU4th & 10 at midfieldQ4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 2Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.4
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 39Q1, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & 7 at NYJ 27Q2, down 4fggouncertain0.3
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & 6 at JAX 25Q2, down 1puntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & 4 at NYJ 21Q3, down 4fggoconfident2.8
2021-12-26JAX v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 1Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 3 at JAX 32Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 3 at NE 11Q1, down 7fggoconfident0.3
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 11 at JAX 46Q3, down 31puntgoconfident0.0
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 3 at JAX 31Q3, down 38puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-02JAX v NE4th & 1 at JAX 34Q4, down 41puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 7 at IND 45Q1, up 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 4Q2, up 4fggoconfident3.6
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 8 at IND 21Q3, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 9 at JAX 21Q3, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 4 at JAX 7Q4, up 20puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 3 at IND 13Q4, up 20fgfgconfident0.0
2022-01-09JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 41Q4, up 15gogoconfident0.0