Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

David Culley

Head coach · HOU · 2021–2021

4–13Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2021HOU4–1313415.743.361.22.27

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.117 (90% interval −0.231 to −0.002) over 134 decisions. Flagged better than expected (Benjamini–Hochberg, 50% false discovery rate).

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & goal at MIA 1Q4, down 11fggoconfident5.1
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 1 at HOU 34Q4, up 6puntgoconfident4.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 3 at HOU 39Q4, down 4puntgoconfident3.3
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & goal at SEA 3Q2, down 3fggoconfident2.3
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 9 at TEN 35Q3, up 12puntfgconfident2.2
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 12 at MIA 47Q4, down 8puntgoconfident2.1
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 7 at JAX 45Q2, up 10puntgoconfident1.6
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 8 at SF 41Q4, down 10puntfglean1.3
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 2 at CLE 49Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 2 at HOU 33Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 4 at HOU 31Q2, up 4puntgoconfident1.2
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 1 at midfieldQ3, up 20puntgoconfident1.2
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 2 at HOU 43Q1, up 4puntgoconfident1.1
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 2 at HOU 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.0
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 9 at IND 39Q2, down 7puntfglean0.9
Every graded 4th down (134)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 4 at HOU 31Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.3
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 3 at JAX 22Q2, up 7fgfguncertain0.0
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 7 at JAX 45Q2, up 10puntgoconfident1.6
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & goal at JAX 7Q2, up 10fgfglean0.0
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 1 at midfieldQ3, up 20puntgoconfident1.2
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 4 at HOU 28Q3, up 20puntgolean-0.2
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 6 at JAX 7Q4, up 20fgfgconfident0.0
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 1 at HOU 33Q4, up 23puntgoconfident0.0
2021-09-12HOU v JAX4th & 3 at HOU 39Q4, up 23puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 2 at CLE 49Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 12 at HOU 35Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 6 at HOU 29Q3, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 10 at HOU 22Q4, down 10puntgoconfident0.2
2021-09-19HOU v CLE4th & 12 at CLE 23Q4, down 10fggoconfident0.4
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 6 at HOU 40Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 5 at HOU 42Q1, down 7puntgouncertain0.1
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 9 at HOU 36Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 8 at HOU 30Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 9 at CAR 44Q3, down 1puntgouncertain0.3
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 15 at HOU 20Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 9 at CAR 35Q4, down 11fgfgconfident0.0
2021-09-23HOU v CAR4th & 11 at midfieldQ4, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 18 at HOU 17Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 6Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 21 at HOU 8Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 19 at HOU 2Q2, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 15 at HOU 18Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 11 at HOU 36Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.0
2021-10-03HOU v BUF4th & 11 at HOU 24Q4, down 40gopuntconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 2 at NE 38Q1, tiedgogolean0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 1 at HOU 42Q2, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 2 at NE 44Q2, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & goal at NE 15Q2, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 2 at HOU 36Q3, up 13puntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 19 at HOU 29Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 4 at NE 38Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2021-10-10HOU v NE4th & 2 at HOU 33Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 6 at HOU 30Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.1
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 17 at midfieldQ1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 9 at IND 39Q2, down 7puntfglean0.9
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 5 at IND 13Q2, down 10fggoconfident0.7
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 9 at HOU 41Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 2 at HOU 45Q3, down 14puntgoconfident0.5
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 8 at IND 22Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-17HOU v IND4th & 1 at HOU 35Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 16 at HOU 21Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 17 at ARI 46Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 7 at ARI 35Q2, up 2fgfguncertain0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 3 at HOU 32Q2, down 9puntgoconfident0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 8 at HOU 38Q3, down 12puntgouncertain-0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 2 at HOU 33Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.1
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 8 at ARI 44Q3, down 19puntgolean0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 5 at ARI 37Q4, down 19gogolean0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 8 at HOU 27Q4, down 26puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-24HOU v ARI4th & 5 at HOU 49Q4, down 26gopuntconfident0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 9 at HOU 45Q1, down 7puntgolean-0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 1 at HOU 13Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.2
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 28 at HOU 33Q2, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 13 at HOU 22Q3, down 24puntgouncertain0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 19 at HOU 16Q3, down 24puntpuntlean0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 17 at HOU 18Q3, down 31puntpuntlean0.0
2021-10-31HOU v LA4th & 5 at HOU 30Q4, down 38puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 7 at HOU 28Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 17 at HOU 38Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 4 at MIA 13Q2, down 7fggoconfident0.8
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 9 at HOU 39Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 9 at MIA 22Q2, down 4fgfglean0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 12 at HOU 42Q3, down 11puntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & goal at MIA 1Q4, down 11fggoconfident5.1
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 12 at MIA 47Q4, down 8puntgoconfident2.1
2021-11-07HOU v MIA4th & 6 at HOU 6Q4, down 8gopuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 7 at TEN 25Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & goal at TEN 6Q2, up 3fggolean0.5
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 3 at HOU 38Q2, up 12puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 1 at TEN 38Q3, up 12gogoconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 9 at TEN 35Q3, up 12puntfgconfident2.2
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 12 at HOU 23Q3, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 1 at HOU 33Q4, up 13puntgoconfident0.4
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 9 at HOU 2Q4, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 1 at HOU 34Q4, up 6puntgoconfident4.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 14 at TEN 19Q4, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-21HOU v TEN4th & 16 at HOU 46Q4, up 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 1 at HOU 41Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 16 at HOU 19Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 7 at HOU 34Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 5 at HOU 42Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 32 at HOU 44Q3, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 3 at HOU 39Q4, down 4puntgoconfident3.3
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 10 at NYJ 37Q4, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-28HOU v NYJ4th & 2 at HOU 39Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 6 at HOU 29Q1, down 7puntgouncertain0.2
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 4 at HOU 7Q2, down 7puntgolean0.4
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 26 at HOU 17Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 21 at HOU 14Q2, down 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 3 at HOU 40Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.3
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 6 at IND 40Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 20 at HOU 15Q4, down 24puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 15 at HOU 26Q4, down 24gopuntuncertain-0.0
2021-12-05HOU v IND4th & 3 at IND 43Q4, down 31gopuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 2 at HOU 43Q1, up 4puntgoconfident1.1
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & goal at SEA 3Q2, down 3fggoconfident2.3
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 4 at HOU 8Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 13 at SEA 43Q2, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 15 at HOU 42Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 15 at SEA 46Q3, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 8 at SEA 46Q4, down 6puntgoconfident0.8
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 3 at midfieldQ4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-12HOU v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 47Q4, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 4 at HOU 31Q2, up 4puntgoconfident1.2
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 6 at JAX 34Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 6 at JAX 7Q3, up 10fgfguncertain0.0
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 6 at HOU 44Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 9 at HOU 34Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-19HOU v JAX4th & 12 at JAX 42Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-26HOU v LAC4th & 18 at HOU 17Q2, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-26HOU v LAC4th & 17 at LAC 33Q2, down 5fgfgconfident0.0
2021-12-26HOU v LAC4th & 8 at LAC 33Q3, up 5fgfgconfident0.0
2021-12-26HOU v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 7Q4, up 9fgfgconfident0.0
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 5 at HOU 25Q1, tiedpuntgolean0.4
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 2 at HOU 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.0
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 12 at SF 43Q1, tiedpuntfguncertain-0.2
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 2 at HOU 20Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident0.8
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 12 at HOU 37Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 10 at HOU 18Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 12 at SF 27Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 8 at SF 41Q4, down 10puntfglean1.3
2022-01-02HOU v SF4th & 2 at HOU 27Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 1 at HOU 40Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 10 at HOU 43Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 7 at TEN 41Q1, tiedpuntfguncertain0.4
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 6 at midfieldQ2, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 12 at HOU 43Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 5 at HOU 27Q2, down 14puntgoconfident0.2
2022-01-09HOU v TEN4th & 8 at TEN 13Q3, down 14fggolean0.4