Coaches › Head coach
Dirk Koetter
Head coach · TB · 2016–2018
19–29Regular season
0–0Playoffs
3Seasons
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | TB | 5–11 | 95 | 12.6 | 53.7 | 57.9 | 3.03 | |
| 2017 | TB | 5–11 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2016 | TB | 9–7 | – | – | – | – | – |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.045 (90% interval −0.121 to +0.224) over 95 decisions. Too few decisions to test.
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 10 at TB 20Q4, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 4.9 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 8 at NO 48Q1, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at CAR 44Q4, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.4 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.8 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 3 at TB 47Q4, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 4 at TB 21Q4, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 2 at BAL 3Q2, down 1 | fg | goconfident | 2.4 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & goal at PIT 3Q2, down 16 | fg | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 1 at TB 46Q2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 41Q3, up 11 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 17 at PIT 36Q1, up 1 | punt | fgconfident | 2.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 5 at NO 22Q3, up 11 | fg | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 2 at TB 43Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-09-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q3, up 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 4 at BAL 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
Every graded 4th down (95)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 7 at NO 15Q2, down 3 | fg | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2018-09-09 | TB v NO | 4th & goal at NO 18Q3, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q3, up 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-09-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at NO 26Q4, up 16 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 4 at TB 34Q1, up 7 | punt | gouncertain | -0.0 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 16 at TB 25Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 10 at TB 47Q2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 3 at TB 37Q3, up 20 | punt | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 2 at TB 43Q4, up 13 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2018-09-16 | TB v PHI | 4th & 10 at TB 46Q4, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 8 at TB 43Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 17 at PIT 36Q1, up 1 | punt | fgconfident | 2.0 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & goal at PIT 3Q2, down 16 | fg | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & goal at PIT 10Q3, down 20 | fg | golean | 0.3 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 6 at PIT 42Q4, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-24 | TB v PIT | 4th & 10 at TB 20Q4, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 4.9 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 10 at TB 25Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 15 at TB 28Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 5 at CHI 12Q2, down 14 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 13 at TB 22Q2, down 18 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q2, down 25 | punt | golean | 0.1 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q3, down 35 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 10 at CHI 48Q3, down 42 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2018-09-30 | TB v CHI | 4th & 3 at CHI 27Q4, down 42 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-14 | TB v ATL | 4th & 12 at TB 49Q1, down 1 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2018-10-14 | TB v ATL | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q2, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 0.2 |
| 2018-10-14 | TB v ATL | 4th & 11 at ATL 17Q3, down 11 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 8 at CLE 20Q1, down 2 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 25 at CLE 43Q3, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 1 at CLE 49Q3, up 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 3 at TB 45Q4, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 6 at TB 5Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 8 at TB 22QOT, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.6 |
| 2018-10-21 | TB v CLE | 4th & 15 at CLE 41QOT, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 4 at CIN 38Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 8 at TB 36Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 20 at TB 29Q2, down 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & goal at CIN 7Q2, down 21 | fg | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 3 at CIN 20Q4, down 18 | fg | golean | 0.2 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 4 at TB 21Q4, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | TB v CIN | 4th & 3 at CIN 18Q4, down 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 7 at TB 28Q1, tied | punt | gouncertain | -0.1 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 2 at TB 43Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 24 at TB 6Q2, down 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & goal at CAR 3Q2, down 28 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 16 at TB 23Q3, down 21 | punt | goconfident | 0.2 |
| 2018-11-04 | TB v CAR | 4th & 20 at TB 39Q4, down 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2018-11-11 | TB v WAS | 4th & 16 at WAS 44Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-11 | TB v WAS | 4th & 4 at WAS 12Q2, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 0.9 |
| 2018-11-11 | TB v WAS | 4th & 13 at WAS 15Q2, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-11 | TB v WAS | 4th & 21 at WAS 30Q3, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-18 | TB v NYG | 4th & 1 at NYG 5Q1, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-18 | TB v NYG | 4th & 15 at TB 35Q2, down 14 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-18 | TB v NYG | 4th & goal at NYG 1Q2, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 1 at TB 34Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.5 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 13 at TB 13Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 9 at TB 43Q2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 8 at SF 22Q2, up 1 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 7 at TB 45Q4, up 18 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | TB v SF | 4th & 17 at TB 34Q4, up 18 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 7 at CAR 17Q1, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 9 at TB 36Q1, up 3 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 29 at TB 20Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at CAR 44Q4, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.4 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 3 at TB 47Q4, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 5 at TB 24Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | TB v CAR | 4th & 12 at TB 46Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 8 at NO 48Q1, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 16 at NO 28Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 31 at TB 22Q2, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 5 at NO 22Q3, up 11 | fg | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 3 at TB 41Q3, up 11 | punt | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 23 at TB 12Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 11 at TB 8Q4, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | TB v NO | 4th & 24 at TB 28Q4, down 11 | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 4 at BAL 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 5 at TB 41Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.1 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 8 at TB 27Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 2 at BAL 3Q2, down 1 | fg | goconfident | 2.4 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 7 at BAL 47Q3, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 5 at BAL 9Q3, down 8 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-16 | TB v BAL | 4th & 4 at BAL 33Q4, down 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 16 at DAL 19Q1, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 10 at DAL 27Q2, down 11 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 5 at TB 25Q2, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 23 at TB 2Q2, down 8 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 18 at DAL 34Q3, down 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 2 at TB 45Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | TB v DAL | 4th & 6 at DAL 7Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 5 at TB 33Q1, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 1 at TB 46Q2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 9 at ATL 18Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 3 at TB 24Q2, up 10 | punt | golean | -0.2 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at ATL 27Q3, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2018-12-30 | TB v ATL | 4th & 4 at TB 31Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.8 |