Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Freddie Kitchens

Head coach · CLE · 2019–2019

6–10Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2019CLE6–1011015.542.768.21.74

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.110 (90% interval −0.204 to +0.007) over 110 decisions. Flagged better than expected (Benjamini–Hochberg, 50% false discovery rate).

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 1 at CLE 39Q2, down 4puntgoconfident4.1
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 7 at TEN 45Q3, down 9puntgoconfident3.3
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 1 at CLE 34Q3, down 5puntgoconfident1.9
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 18 at PIT 38Q4, down 7puntfgconfident1.9
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 3 at CLE 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 3 at ARI 27Q4, down 11fggoconfident1.3
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & goal at LA 5Q2, down 3fggoconfident1.3
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & goal at BAL 6Q2, tiedfggoconfident1.2
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 5 at BAL 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2019-12-08CLE v CIN4th & 3 at CIN 35Q3, up 5fggoconfident1.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 4 at PIT 48Q2, up 14puntgoconfident0.9
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & 7 at CLE 28Q3, down 5puntgoconfident0.9
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 2 at CLE 35Q2, up 6puntgoconfident0.7
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 7 at PIT 43Q1, up 7puntgoconfident0.7
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 5 at CLE 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
Every graded 4th down (110)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 28 at CLE 6Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 3 at CLE 35Q2, up 3puntgouncertain0.4
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 1 at CLE 39Q2, down 4puntgoconfident4.1
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 13 at CLE 25Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 7 at TEN 45Q3, down 9puntgoconfident3.3
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 13 at TEN 48Q4, down 23gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-08CLE v TEN4th & 2 at CLE 33Q4, down 30gopuntuncertain-0.0
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 5Q1, tiedfgfguncertain0.0
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 5 at NYJ 30Q1, up 3fggoconfident0.6
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 5 at CLE 46Q1, up 6puntgoconfident0.7
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 4 at midfieldQ2, up 10puntgoconfident0.6
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 4 at NYJ 49Q3, up 13puntgouncertain0.0
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 9 at CLE 35Q3, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 2 at CLE 41Q3, up 20puntgoconfident0.2
2019-09-16CLE v NYJ4th & 16 at NYJ 41Q4, up 20puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 18 at CLE 27Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 3 at CLE 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & goal at LA 5Q2, down 3fggoconfident1.3
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 4 at CLE 12Q2, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 14 at LA 41Q2, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 10 at LA 17Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 8 at LA 49Q3, up 3puntgouncertain0.6
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 9 at LA 40Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & 18 at CLE 2Q4, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-22CLE v LA4th & goal at LA 4Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & 11 at CLE 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & 5 at CLE 32Q2, up 7puntgolean0.1
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & 1 at BAL 8Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & goal at BAL 6Q2, tiedfggoconfident1.2
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & 4 at BAL 25Q4, up 12fggolean0.2
2019-09-29CLE v BAL4th & 10 at CLE 20Q4, up 15puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 13 at CLE 42Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 16 at CLE 6Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & goal at SF 12Q2, down 14fgfguncertain0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 15 at CLE 12Q2, down 18puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 8 at CLE 45Q3, down 25puntgoconfident0.2
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 10 at CLE 45Q3, down 25puntgoconfident0.1
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 7 at CLE 21Q4, down 25puntgoconfident0.0
2019-10-07CLE v SF4th & 6 at CLE 29Q4, down 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & 7 at SEA 38Q1, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & 9 at CLE 26Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & 7 at CLE 28Q3, down 5puntgoconfident0.9
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & 3 at SEA 23Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2019-10-13CLE v SEA4th & goal at SEA 1Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 3 at CLE 27Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 16 at NE 46Q2, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 13 at NE 20Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 10 at CLE 25Q3, down 14puntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 13 at CLE 30Q4, down 14puntgouncertain-0.1
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 16 at CLE 19Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2019-10-27CLE v NE4th & 6 at NE 29Q4, down 17fggoconfident0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 6 at CLE 33Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 17 at CLE 43Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 3 at DEN 21Q2, down 7fggouncertain-0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 12Q2, down 11fgfguncertain0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & goal at DEN 9Q2, down 8fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 3 at DEN 12Q2, down 8fgfglean0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 1 at CLE 34Q3, down 5puntgoconfident1.9
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 1 at DEN 5Q3, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2019-11-03CLE v DEN4th & 4 at DEN 28Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 2 at BUF 41Q1, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & goal at BUF 1Q1, up 6gogoconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 2 at CLE 35Q2, up 6puntgoconfident0.7
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & goal at BUF 8Q2, down 1fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 6 at BUF 29Q3, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 9 at CLE 37Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-10CLE v BUF4th & 13 at CLE 24Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 7 at PIT 43Q1, up 7puntgoconfident0.7
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 4 at CLE 29Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 4 at PIT 48Q2, up 14puntgoconfident0.9
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 7 at PIT 27Q2, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 9 at CLE 41Q3, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 6 at PIT 45Q3, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 9 at PIT 31Q3, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 5 at CLE 38Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 11 at PIT 48Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-14CLE v PIT4th & 12 at PIT 39Q4, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24CLE v MIA4th & 21 at CLE 35Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-11-24CLE v MIA4th & 16 at MIA 27Q3, up 18fgfglean0.0
2019-11-24CLE v MIA4th & 6 at MIA 21Q4, up 11fgfguncertain0.0
2019-11-24CLE v MIA4th & 7 at MIA 8Q4, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 12 at PIT 13Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 6 at CLE 41Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 6 at CLE 24Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 10 at CLE 36Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 1 at PIT 40Q3, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 8 at CLE 20Q4, down 10puntgoconfident0.6
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 12 at PIT 16Q4, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-01CLE v PIT4th & 18 at PIT 38Q4, down 7puntfgconfident1.9
2019-12-08CLE v CIN4th & 15 at CLE 49Q2, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-08CLE v CIN4th & 5 at CLE 13Q2, up 1puntpuntlean0.0
2019-12-08CLE v CIN4th & 3 at CIN 35Q3, up 5fggoconfident1.0
2019-12-08CLE v CIN4th & 4 at CIN 13Q4, up 8fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 8 at CLE 17Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 8 at ARI 26Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 7 at CLE 26Q3, down 4puntgouncertain-0.0
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 3 at ARI 27Q4, down 11fggoconfident1.3
2019-12-15CLE v ARI4th & 6 at ARI 12Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 5 at CLE 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 5 at BAL 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 12 at CLE 19Q2, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 9 at CLE 20Q2, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 10 at CLE 25Q2, down 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-22CLE v BAL4th & 10 at BAL 29Q3, down 15fggolean0.3
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & 11 at CLE 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & 21 at CLE 28Q1, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & 17 at CIN 24Q2, down 13fgfgconfident0.0
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & 5 at CLE 34Q2, down 4puntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & 11 at CLE 19Q3, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-12-29CLE v CIN4th & goal at CIN 20Q4, down 14gofgconfident0.4