Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Giff Smith

Head coach · LAC · 2023–2023

0–3Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2023LAC0–32814.332.175.03.17

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.005 (90% interval −0.119 to +0.105) over 28 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 6 at KC 38Q4, down 1gofgconfident5.5
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & goal at BUF 2Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.4
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 2 at LAC 33Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 49Q1, down 3puntgoconfident0.5
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 7 at LAC 45Q4, down 1puntgouncertain0.3
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 3 at LAC 46Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.2
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 2 at KC 31Q2, down 10fggouncertain0.0
Every graded 4th down (28)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & goal at BUF 2Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.4
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 13 at LAC 13Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 3 at LAC 11Q2, up 10puntpuntuncertain0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 22 at LAC 20Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 18 at midfieldQ3, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 15 at BUF 22Q3, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 7 at BUF 29Q4, down 8fgfglean0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 12 at BUF 27Q4, down 5fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-23LAC v BUF4th & 13 at BUF 35Q4, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 2 at LAC 33Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 6 at LAC 19Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 49Q1, down 3puntgoconfident0.5
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 18Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 14 at LAC 48Q2, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 2 at DEN 32Q3, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 5 at LAC 46Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2023-12-31LAC v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 32Q4, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 1 at LAC 47Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 3 at LAC 46Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.2
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 4 at LAC 26Q2, down 7puntpuntlean0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 9 at LAC 21Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 2 at KC 31Q2, down 10fggouncertain0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 12 at LAC 43Q3, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 17 at KC 25Q3, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 7 at LAC 45Q4, down 1puntgouncertain0.3
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 6 at KC 38Q4, down 1gofgconfident5.5
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & goal at KC 2Q4, down 1fgfguncertain0.0
2024-01-07LAC v KC4th & 2 at LAC 33Q4, down 1gogoconfident0.0