Coaches › Head coach
Gregg Williams
Head coach · BUF/CLE · 2001–2018
22–34Regular season
0–0Playoffs
4Seasons
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | CLE | 5–3 | 43 | 23.3 | 48.8 | 65.1 | 2.25 | |
| 2003 | BUF | 6–10 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2002 | BUF | 8–8 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2001 | BUF | 3–13 | – | – | – | – | – |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.023 (90% interval −0.249 to +0.277) over 43 decisions. Too few decisions to test.
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 10 at BAL 39Q4, down 2 | go | fgconfident | 9.2 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 1 at CLE 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 2.8 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 6 at KC 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 5 at midfieldQ1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 1 at CLE 29Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 1 at CLE 24Q4, up 18 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 7 at BAL 48Q2, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 7 at CLE 28Q3, down 3 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 5 at CLE 32Q1, down 3 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 8 at CLE 49Q2, down 10 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 3 at CLE 24Q4, up 15 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 9 at CLE 37Q3, down 13 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 7 at CLE 38Q3, up 18 | punt | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 4 at CLE 34Q4, up 16 | punt | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 6 at HOU 39Q4, down 16 | go | puntconfident | 0.0 |
Every graded 4th down (43)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 1 at KC 49Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 6 at KC 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 16 at KC 33Q1, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 2 at KC 43Q2, down 11 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 9 at CLE 37Q3, down 13 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-04 | CLE v KC | 4th & 2 at KC 45Q4, down 16 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 1 at CLE 44Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 2.8 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 7 at CLE 38Q3, up 18 | punt | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 1 at CLE 24Q4, up 18 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2018-11-11 | CLE v ATL | 4th & 6 at CLE 24Q4, up 12 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 1 at CIN 22Q2, up 21 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 11 at CLE 29Q3, up 28 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 19 at CIN 45Q4, up 21 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 3 at CLE 24Q4, up 15 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2018-11-25 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 13 at CLE 37Q4, up 15 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 5 at CLE 32Q1, down 3 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 8 at CLE 49Q2, down 10 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 5 at HOU 36Q4, down 19 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-02 | CLE v HOU | 4th & 6 at HOU 39Q4, down 16 | go | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 10 at CAR 31Q2, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 16 at CLE 5Q3, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 7 at CLE 28Q3, down 3 | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 8 at CAR 23Q4, up 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-09 | CLE v CAR | 4th & 3 at CLE 24Q4, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 7 at CLE 39Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 5 at midfieldQ1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 10 at DEN 22Q2, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 5 at CLE 25Q2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 3 at DEN 45Q3, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 23 at CLE 12Q4, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | CLE v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 10Q4, up 1 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 6 at CLE 37Q1, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 18 at CLE 25Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 1 at CIN 15Q2, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 5 at CIN 19Q2, up 13 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 5 at CIN 13Q4, up 20 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-23 | CLE v CIN | 4th & 4 at CLE 34Q4, up 16 | punt | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 1 at CLE 29Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 7 at BAL 48Q2, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 10 at CLE 7Q2, down 13 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 11 at CLE 34Q3, down 9 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 8 at BAL 17Q4, down 9 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2018-12-30 | CLE v BAL | 4th & 10 at BAL 39Q4, down 2 | go | fgconfident | 9.2 |