Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Jay Gruden

Head coach · WAS · 2014–2019

35–49–1Regular season
0–1Playoffs
6Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2019WAS0–53721.659.562.21.86
2018WAS7–912313.837.465.93.09
2017WAS7–9–––––
2016WAS8–7–1–––––
2015WAS9–70–1–––––
2014WAS4–12–––––

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.053 (90% interval −0.165 to +0.074) over 160 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 39Q2, tiedgofgconfident5.9
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 9Q3, down 11fggoconfident5.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 6 at DAL 38Q3, down 4puntfgconfident3.9
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 5 at WAS 47Q3, down 11puntgoconfident3.1
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 22 at HOU 37Q3, down 10puntfgconfident3.0
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 2 at WAS 45Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.8
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & goal at NYG 3Q2, down 14fggoconfident2.8
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.7
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 1 at WAS 38Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.5
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 1 at WAS 48Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.3
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 4 at midfieldQ2, down 7puntgoconfident1.8
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 3 at DAL 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 31Q2, down 7fggoconfident1.5
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 7 at WAS 38Q4, down 14puntgoconfident1.4
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & goal at DAL 3Q3, tiedfggoconfident1.3
Every graded 4th down (160)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 26 at ARI 46Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 1 at midfieldQ2, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 14 at WAS 4Q3, up 21puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 15 at ARI 49Q3, up 21puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 6 at ARI 13Q4, up 21fgfgconfident0.0
2018-09-09WAS v ARI4th & 5 at WAS 11Q4, up 18puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.7
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 46Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.3
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 31Q2, down 7fggoconfident1.5
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 6 at WAS 29Q2, down 11puntgoconfident0.7
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 15 at WAS 32Q2, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 5 at WAS 47Q3, down 11puntgoconfident3.1
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 9Q3, down 11fggoconfident5.0
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 21 at IND 31Q4, down 8fgfgconfident0.0
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 2 at WAS 41Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-16WAS v IND4th & 4 at IND 34Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 9 at WAS 23Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 5 at WAS 22Q3, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 16 at GB 45Q4, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 10 at WAS 35Q4, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 6 at WAS 16Q4, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23WAS v GB4th & 9 at GB 17Q4, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 8 at WAS 27Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & goal at NO 19Q1, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 5 at NO 35Q2, down 10fgfguncertain0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 7 at WAS 25Q2, down 14puntgoconfident0.4
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 9 at WAS 47Q2, down 20puntgoconfident0.2
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 2 at NO 31Q3, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 1 at WAS 34Q3, down 27gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 10 at NO 22Q3, down 27gofguncertain0.0
2018-10-08WAS v NO4th & 2 at WAS 33Q4, down 30gogouncertain0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 2 at WAS 28Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 1 at WAS 45Q1, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 11 at WAS 27Q2, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 6 at CAR 31Q2, up 14fggouncertain0.2
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 13 at CAR 44Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 16 at CAR 39Q2, up 11puntfgconfident0.8
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 38Q3, up 11gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 5 at CAR 38Q4, up 8fgfglean0.0
2018-10-14WAS v CAR4th & 6 at CAR 11Q4, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 7 at DAL 42Q1, up 7puntfguncertain0.7
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 13 at WAS 48Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 11 at WAS 44Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 5 at DAL 39Q2, tiedgofgconfident5.9
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & goal at DAL 3Q3, tiedfggoconfident1.3
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 1 at WAS 48Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.3
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & goal at DAL 7Q4, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 2 at WAS 45Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.8
2018-10-21WAS v DAL4th & 3 at WAS 32Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 10 at WAS 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 10 at WAS 22Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 23Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 4 at WAS 28Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 5 at WAS 49Q3, up 4puntgouncertain0.2
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 9 at NYG 35Q3, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 3 at NYG 21Q4, up 7fgfglean0.0
2018-10-28WAS v NYG4th & 9 at WAS 29Q4, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 16 at WAS 19Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 15 at WAS 41Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 4 at midfieldQ2, down 7puntgoconfident1.8
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 22 at WAS 26Q3, down 21puntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 3 at ATL 13Q3, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 7 at WAS 38Q4, down 14puntgoconfident1.4
2018-11-04WAS v ATL4th & 6 at ATL 28Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 5 at WAS 37Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 9 at TB 25Q1, tiedfgfguncertain0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 4 at WAS 26Q2, up 3puntgolean1.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 4 at TB 25Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 1 at WAS 38Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.5
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 4 at TB 8Q4, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 11 at midfieldQ4, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-11WAS v TB4th & 6 at midfieldQ4, up 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 9 at WAS 22Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 5 at WAS 36Q1, down 3puntgolean0.5
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 16 at WAS 49Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 22 at HOU 37Q3, down 10puntfgconfident3.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 1 at HOU 46Q4, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 19 at WAS 27Q4, down 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18WAS v HOU4th & 10 at HOU 45Q4, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 6 at WAS 29Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 9 at WAS 43Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 15 at WAS 20Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 7 at WAS 38Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 6 at DAL 38Q3, down 4puntfgconfident3.9
2018-11-22WAS v DAL4th & 3 at DAL 13Q4, down 11fggoconfident0.5
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 6 at WAS 29Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 20 at PHI 26Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 3 at WAS 10Q2, up 3puntgoconfident1.2
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 29Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 11 at WAS 24Q3, down 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 7 at PHI 49Q3, down 1puntgoconfident1.0
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 10 at WAS 25Q4, down 12puntgoconfident0.4
2018-12-03WAS v PHI4th & 24 at WAS 22Q4, down 15puntgolean0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 9 at WAS 39Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 12 at WAS 26Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 12 at WAS 41Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 11 at WAS 31Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 7 at WAS 28Q2, down 10puntgouncertain0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 2 at WAS 33Q2, down 24puntgoconfident0.1
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 13 at WAS 22Q2, down 31puntgoconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 17 at WAS 18Q3, down 34puntgoconfident0.0
2018-12-09WAS v NYG4th & 2 at NYG 22Q3, down 40gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 16 at JAX 40Q1, tiedpuntfgconfident0.7
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 15 at JAX 28Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 19 at WAS 27Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 3 at WAS 16Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 8 at WAS 40Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 6 at WAS 22Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 10 at JAX 15Q3, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-16WAS v JAX4th & 3 at WAS 34Q3, down 4puntgoconfident0.5
2018-12-22WAS v TEN4th & 4 at TEN 32Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.2
2018-12-22WAS v TEN4th & 5 at WAS 30Q1, down 3puntgouncertain0.1
2018-12-22WAS v TEN4th & 7 at WAS 10Q3, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-22WAS v TEN4th & 7 at TEN 22Q3, up 1fgfglean0.0
2018-12-22WAS v TEN4th & 19 at TEN 28Q4, up 1fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 13 at WAS 28Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 14 at WAS 42Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 8 at WAS 45Q2, down 3puntgolean0.2
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 3 at WAS 16Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 10 at WAS 40Q4, down 17puntgoconfident0.2
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 12 at PHI 43Q4, down 17gofglean-0.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 8 at WAS 45Q4, down 24gogolean0.0
2018-12-30WAS v PHI4th & 6 at PHI 32Q4, down 24gofguncertain0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 10 at PHI 23Q1, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 7 at WAS 17Q2, up 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 10 at WAS 25Q2, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 9 at WAS 26Q3, up 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 10 at WAS 27Q3, down 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 6 at WAS 25Q4, down 9puntgoconfident0.2
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 7 at WAS 41Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-08WAS v PHI4th & 12 at WAS 47Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 4 at WAS 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.6
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 3 at DAL 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.7
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 24 at WAS 39Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 3 at WAS 32Q2, tiedpuntgoconfident0.6
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 7 at DAL 31Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 3 at DAL 46Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-15WAS v DAL4th & 4 at DAL 6Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-23WAS v CHI4th & 11 at WAS 35Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-23WAS v CHI4th & 20 at CHI 25Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2019-09-23WAS v CHI4th & goal at CHI 2Q4, down 19gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-23WAS v CHI4th & 1 at WAS 44Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-23WAS v CHI4th & 1 at CHI 16Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 11 at WAS 36Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 4 at WAS 25Q2, down 14puntgoconfident1.2
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 10 at WAS 47Q2, down 14puntgoconfident1.1
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & goal at NYG 3Q2, down 14fggoconfident2.8
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 3 at WAS 20Q3, down 14puntgoconfident0.8
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 20 at WAS 12Q4, down 21puntgolean0.0
2019-09-29WAS v NYG4th & 2 at WAS 11Q4, down 21puntgoconfident0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 17 at WAS 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 17 at WAS 18Q1, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 8 at WAS 38Q2, up 1puntgouncertain0.2
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 10 at WAS 25Q2, down 2puntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 4 at WAS 26Q2, down 2puntgolean0.1
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 13 at midfieldQ3, down 12puntpuntuncertain0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 8 at WAS 39Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 16 at WAS 21Q4, down 19puntgolean0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 11 at WAS 36Q4, down 26puntpuntconfident0.0
2019-10-06WAS v NE4th & 10 at WAS 35Q4, down 26puntpuntconfident0.0