Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Jay Rosburg

Head coach · DEN · 2022–2022

1–1Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2022DEN1–11520.046.773.30.65

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.220 (90% interval −0.420 to −0.044) over 15 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at DEN 41Q1, down 6puntgoconfident0.5
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at DEN 22Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.4
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 7 at DEN 41Q2, down 3puntgoconfident0.2
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 9 at DEN 18Q3, up 4puntgouncertain0.1
Every graded 4th down (15)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at DEN 22Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.4
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at DEN 41Q1, down 6puntgoconfident0.5
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 1 at KC 45Q2, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 6 at KC 30Q2, down 6fgfglean0.0
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 7 at DEN 41Q2, down 3puntgoconfident0.2
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 15 at DEN 43Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 9 at DEN 18Q3, up 4puntgouncertain0.1
2023-01-01DEN v KC4th & 2 at DEN 45Q4, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 2 at LAC 34Q1, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 7 at DEN 16Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 14 at DEN 21Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 5 at LAC 15Q2, down 7fgfglean0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 5 at DEN 25Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 15 at DEN 45Q3, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08DEN v LAC4th & 6 at DEN 29Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0