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Jeff Hafley

Head coach · MIA · 2026–2026

1–7Regular season

0–0Playoffs

1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

Season	Team	Record	Playoffs	4th-down decisions	Went for it %	Model said go %	Agrees with model %	WP lost per game
2026	MIA	1–7		51	19.6	49.0	66.7	0.91

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.168 (90% interval −0.325 to −0.016) over 51 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

Date	Game	Situation	Call	Model	WP lost (pts)
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 2 at LV 23Q2, down 10	fg	goconfident	2.6
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 4 at NE 13Q1, down 3	fg	goconfident	1.1
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 9 at KC 42Q3, down 4	punt	goconfident	0.7
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 5 at MIA 38Q3, down 9	punt	goconfident	0.5
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 8 at MIA 20Q4, down 5	punt	golean	0.4
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 3 at MIA 31Q2, down 7	punt	goconfident	0.3
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & goal at SF 5Q2, down 11	fg	golean	0.3
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 10 at MIA 20Q4, down 14	punt	goconfident	0.3
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 18 at MIA 48Q4, down 14	punt	golean	0.2
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 9 at LV 44Q1, tied	punt	golean	0.2
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & goal at CIN 11Q3, down 14	fg	gouncertain	0.2
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & 1 at CIN 46Q2, down 14	go	puntuncertain	0.1
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 6 at DET 34Q3, down 6	fg	gouncertain	0.1
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 5 at MIA 25Q1, down 3	punt	gouncertain	0.1
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 7 at MIA 32Q3, down 15	punt	golean	0.0

Every graded 4th down (51)

Every graded 4th down

Date	Game	Situation	Call	Model	WP lost (pts)
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 9 at LV 44Q1, tied	punt	golean	0.2
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 3 at MIA 31Q2, down 7	punt	goconfident	0.3
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 2 at LV 23Q2, down 10	fg	goconfident	2.6
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 15 at LV 23Q3, down 14	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 10 at MIA 20Q4, down 14	punt	goconfident	0.3
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 18 at MIA 48Q4, down 14	punt	golean	0.2
2026-09-13	MIA v LV	4th & 12 at LV 46Q4, down 14	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 7 at SF 33Q1, tied	fg	fguncertain	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 1 at SF 31Q1, down 7	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & goal at SF 10Q2, down 7	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & goal at SF 5Q2, down 11	fg	golean	0.3
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 7 at MIA 32Q3, down 15	punt	golean	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 7 at MIA 30Q3, down 29	punt	golean	0.0
2026-09-20	MIA v SF	4th & 20 at MIA 22Q4, down 29	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 4 at KC 49Q2, down 7	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 13 at KC 45Q2, down 7	punt	puntlean	0.0
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 17 at KC 18Q3, down 7	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 9 at KC 42Q3, down 4	punt	goconfident	0.7
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 5 at MIA 48Q4, down 7	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-09-27	MIA v KC	4th & 1 at MIA 48Q4, down 14	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 9 at MIA 26Q1, tied	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 12 at MIA 44Q1, down 3	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 4 at MIA 32Q2, down 3	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 7 at MIA 31Q2, down 6	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 8 at MIN 9Q3, down 9	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 5 at MIA 38Q3, down 9	punt	goconfident	0.5
2026-10-04	MIA v MIN	4th & 8 at MIA 20Q4, down 5	punt	golean	0.4
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & 9 at MIA 9Q1, tied	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & 1 at CIN 46Q2, down 14	go	puntuncertain	0.1
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & 10 at MIA 29Q3, down 14	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-11	MIA v CIN	4th & goal at CIN 11Q3, down 14	fg	gouncertain	0.2
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 1 at NYJ 2Q1, tied	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 2 at MIA 23Q2, up 7	punt	puntuncertain	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 2 at NYJ 41Q2, up 7	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 5 at MIA 35Q3, up 14	punt	puntlean	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 6 at MIA 45Q3, up 7	punt	puntlean	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 8 at MIA 26Q4, up 4	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-10-25	MIA v NYJ	4th & 1 at NYJ 49Q4, up 3	go	goconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 6 at MIA 27Q1, tied	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 12 at MIA 45Q1, down 3	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 4 at NE 13Q1, down 3	fg	goconfident	1.1
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 16 at NE 34Q2, tied	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 9 at MIA 26Q3, up 10	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 20 at MIA 25Q3, up 3	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-11-01	MIA v NE	4th & 10 at NE 25Q4, down 11	fg	fglean	0.0
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 5 at MIA 25Q1, down 3	punt	gouncertain	0.1
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 7 at DET 16Q1, down 3	fg	gouncertain	-0.0
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 18 at MIA 22Q2, tied	punt	puntconfident	0.0
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 6 at DET 34Q3, down 6	fg	gouncertain	0.1
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & goal at DET 16Q4, down 10	fg	fgconfident	0.0
2026-11-08	MIA v DET	4th & 12 at MIA 33Q4, down 10	go	goconfident	0.0