Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Jeff Saturday

Head coach · IND · 2022–2022

1–7Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2022IND1–76526.244.675.41.96

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.012 (90% interval −0.117 to +0.091) over 65 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 1 at NYG 5Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & goal at MIN 8Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.6
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 2 at IND 24Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.7
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 1 at IND 37Q1, up 7puntgoconfident1.6
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 5 at IND 40Q4, down 1puntgoconfident1.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 4 at MIN 10Q2, up 17fggoconfident1.1
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 4 at PIT 33Q2, down 13fggoconfident1.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 8 at IND 41Q2, up 4puntgoconfident0.9
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 27Q2, down 7fggolean0.8
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 9 at NYG 29Q3, down 21fggolean0.3
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 10 at IND 25Q4, down 7puntgolean0.2
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 9Q2, up 30fggouncertain0.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 7 at IND 36Q3, up 22puntgolean0.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 7 at IND 48Q3, up 33puntgolean0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 18Q3, down 28gofguncertain0.0
Every graded 4th down (65)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 5 at IND 23Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 3 at LV 30Q2, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 15 at LV 30Q3, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 7 at IND 8Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-13IND v LV4th & 5 at IND 40Q4, down 1puntgoconfident1.1
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 1 at IND 37Q1, up 7puntgoconfident1.6
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 10 at IND 21Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 8 at IND 41Q2, up 4puntgoconfident0.9
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 33Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 17Q3, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 14 at IND 43Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 15 at PHI 32Q3, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & goal at PHI 19Q4, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20IND v PHI4th & 21 at IND 28Q4, down 1gogoconfident0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 10 at IND 20Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 4 at IND 36Q2, down 6puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 4 at PIT 33Q2, down 13fggoconfident1.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 4 at PIT 41Q2, down 13fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 1 at PIT 35Q3, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 10 at IND 25Q4, down 7puntgolean0.2
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 3 at PIT 37Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2022-11-28IND v PIT4th & 3 at PIT 26Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 3 at DAL 33Q1, tiedfgfglean0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 14 at IND 16Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 14 at IND 48Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 7 at DAL 16Q2, down 4fgfglean0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 9 at IND 10Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 1 at DAL 13Q3, down 8gogolean0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 1 at IND 31Q4, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-04IND v DAL4th & 4 at IND 29Q4, down 28gopuntconfident0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & goal at MIN 8Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.6
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 4 at MIN 10Q2, up 17fggoconfident1.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 10 at MIN 31Q2, up 20fgfgconfident0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 13 at IND 35Q2, up 23puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 3 at MIN 9Q2, up 30fggouncertain0.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 7 at IND 48Q3, up 33puntgolean0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 34Q3, up 26fgfglean0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 7 at IND 36Q3, up 22puntgolean0.1
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 6 at IND 32Q4, up 15puntpuntlean0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 8 at IND 4Q4, up 15puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 36Q4, up 8gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 6 at IND 29Q4, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-12-17IND v MIN4th & 9 at IND 44QOT, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 6 at IND 32Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 4 at LAC 42Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 14 at IND 26Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 27Q2, down 7fggolean0.8
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 18 at IND 33Q3, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 12Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 4 at IND 49Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-26IND v LAC4th & 9 at IND 46Q4, down 17gogolean0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 6 at IND 37Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 1 at NYG 5Q1, tiedfggoconfident4.1
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 9 at IND 26Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 13 at IND 39Q2, down 18puntpuntlean0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 9 at NYG 29Q3, down 21fggolean0.3
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 1 at NYG 28Q3, down 28gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 18Q3, down 28gofguncertain0.0
2023-01-01IND v NYG4th & 11 at IND 41Q4, down 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 1 at HOU 19Q1, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 17 at IND 2Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 3 at HOU 41Q2, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & goal at HOU 3Q3, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 2 at IND 24Q3, down 10puntgoconfident1.7
2023-01-08IND v HOU4th & 7 at HOU 36Q4, up 4fgfgconfident0.0