Coaches › Head coach
Jesse Minter
Head coach · BAL · 2026–2026
4–5Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BAL | 4–5 | 64 | 15.6 | 50.0 | 65.6 | 3.61 |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.120 (90% interval −0.112 to +0.385) over 64 decisions. Too few decisions to test.
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & goal at ATL 3Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 5.7 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 5 at BAL 45Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 5.6 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 4 at BUF 8Q3, down 9 | fg | goconfident | 4.2 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 4 at BAL 38Q4, down 5 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 1 at BAL 37Q4, tied | punt | goconfident | 2.2 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 7 at BAL 40Q4, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 2.1 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 5 at ATL 49Q1, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 6 at BAL 27Q3, down 13 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 5 at BAL 28Q2, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 5 at BAL 35Q1, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 6 at DAL 9Q2, up 4 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 9 at BAL 33Q3, down 13 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 7 at BAL 41Q4, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 3 at CIN 6Q2, up 10 | fg | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 7 at ATL 33Q2, down 4 | fg | golean | 0.5 |
Every graded 4th down (64)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | BAL v IND | 4th & goal at IND 3Q2, up 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL v IND | 4th & 15 at BAL 29Q2, up 15 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL v IND | 4th & 5 at BAL 39Q3, up 18 | punt | golean | 0.1 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL v IND | 4th & 11 at midfieldQ3, up 15 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL v IND | 4th & 3 at IND 27Q4, up 15 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 6 at BAL 29Q1, tied | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 13 at NO 31Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 22 at NO 31Q3, up 5 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 26 at BAL 35Q3, up 8 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL v NO | 4th & 1 at BAL 37Q4, tied | punt | goconfident | 2.2 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 4 at BAL 29Q1, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.3 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 1 at BAL 30Q1, down 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 6 at DAL 9Q2, up 4 | fg | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 14 at BAL 21Q3, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & goal at DAL 1Q4, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL v DAL | 4th & 5 at BAL 45Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 5.6 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 5Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 18 at BAL 45Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 3 at BAL 19Q2, up 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 3 at BAL 41Q3, up 17 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 10 at TEN 48Q3, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 11 at BAL 47Q3, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 8 at BAL 44Q4, up 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL v TEN | 4th & 6 at TEN 22Q4, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & goal at ATL 3Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 5.7 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 5 at ATL 49Q1, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 8 at BAL 40Q2, down 4 | punt | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 7 at ATL 33Q2, down 4 | fg | golean | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 17 at ATL 33Q2, down 8 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 11 at BAL 38Q3, down 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL v ATL | 4th & 4 at BAL 38Q4, down 5 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & goal at CLE 2Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 9 at CLE 16Q1, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 9 at BAL 37Q2, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 3 at BAL 24Q2, up 10 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 8 at BAL 31Q2, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 15 at BAL 38Q2, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 10 at midfieldQ3, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 11 at CLE 31Q4, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 3 at BAL 23Q4, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL v CLE | 4th & 7 at BAL 41Q4, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 12 at BAL 16Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 6 at CIN 16Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 3 at CIN 6Q2, up 10 | fg | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 15 at BAL 21Q3, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 2 at CIN 12Q4, down 1 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 7 at BAL 40Q4, down 8 | punt | goconfident | 2.1 |
| 2026-10-25 | BAL v CIN | 4th & 1 at CIN 48Q4, down 22 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 10 at BAL 29Q1, down 7 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 5 at BAL 35Q1, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & goal at BUF 16Q2, down 6 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 5 at BAL 28Q2, down 6 | punt | goconfident | 1.1 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 4 at BUF 8Q3, down 9 | fg | goconfident | 4.2 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 9 at BAL 33Q3, down 13 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 6 at BAL 27Q3, down 13 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2026-11-01 | BAL v BUF | 4th & 3 at BAL 44Q4, down 19 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 6 at JAX 35Q1, down 7 | fg | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 11 at BAL 43Q2, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 1 at BAL 29Q2, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 9 at BAL 45Q2, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 2 at BAL 39Q2, down 14 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 4 at BAL 36Q3, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 11 at BAL 30Q3, down 17 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL v JAX | 4th & 1 at JAX 41Q3, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |