Coaches › Head coach
Joe Brady
Head coach · BUF · 2026–2026
7–1Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BUF | 7–1 | 46 | 21.7 | 45.7 | 76.1 | 1.88 |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.038 (90% interval −0.063 to +0.159) over 46 decisions. Too few decisions to test.
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 4 at BUF 17Q3, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 4 at MIN 21Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF v LA | 4th & 3 at LA 5Q1, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & goal at BAL 4Q2, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 7 at BAL 38Q1, up 7 | fg | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 8 at LV 26Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 6 at HOU 28Q1, tied | fg | golean | 0.9 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 7 at BUF 44Q3, down 4 | punt | golean | 0.8 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 3 at BUF 37Q2, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF v LAC | 4th & 9 at LAC 10Q2, down 10 | fg | golean | 0.6 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF v DET | 4th & 5 at BUF 35Q2, up 20 | punt | golean | -0.0 |
Every graded 4th down (46)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 1 at HOU 34Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 6 at HOU 28Q1, tied | fg | golean | 0.9 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 12 at BUF 33Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 10 at HOU 16Q3, up 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 4 at HOU 14Q4, down 1 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF v HOU | 4th & 12 at BUF 18Q4, down 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF v DET | 4th & 5 at BUF 35Q2, up 20 | punt | golean | -0.0 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF v DET | 4th & 8 at midfieldQ4, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF v LAC | 4th & 22 at BUF 34Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF v LAC | 4th & 1 at BUF 43Q1, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF v LAC | 4th & 9 at LAC 10Q2, down 10 | fg | golean | 0.6 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF v LAC | 4th & 6 at LAC 43Q4, down 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 5 at BUF 38Q1, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 2 at NE 41Q1, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 3 at BUF 37Q2, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 7 at BUF 44Q3, down 4 | punt | golean | 0.8 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 4 at BUF 17Q3, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF v NE | 4th & 10 at NE 20Q4, down 4 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF v LA | 4th & 15 at LA 31Q1, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF v LA | 4th & 3 at LA 5Q1, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF v LA | 4th & 21 at BUF 41Q3, down 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 8 at LV 26Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & goal at LV 10Q2, down 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 17 at BUF 23Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 12 at LV 28Q3, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 10 at BUF 40Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF v LV | 4th & 6 at LV 20Q4, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & goal at BAL 1Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 7 at BAL 38Q1, up 7 | fg | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 4 at BAL 37Q2, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 1 at BAL 11Q2, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & goal at BAL 4Q2, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 8 at BUF 26Q2, up 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 1 at BUF 43Q2, up 6 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 10 at BAL 33Q2, up 6 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 31 at BUF 35Q3, up 13 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-01 | BUF v BAL | 4th & 1 at BAL 34Q4, up 19 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 21 at MIN 47Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 4 at MIN 21Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 2.3 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 11 at BUF 12Q1, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 13 at BUF 10Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 23 at BUF 2Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & goal at MIN 6Q3, up 4 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 17 at MIN 46Q3, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 1 at MIN 38Q4, up 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2026-11-09 | BUF v MIN | 4th & 3 at MIN 34Q4, up 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |