Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Joe Philbin

Head coach · MIA/GB · 2012–2018

31–37Regular season
0–0Playoffs
5Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2018GB2–23119.432.387.12.58
2015MIA6–10–––––
2014MIA8–8–––––
2013MIA8–8–––––
2012MIA7–9–––––

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.046 (90% interval −0.213 to +0.128) over 31 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 2 at NYJ 11Q3, down 4fggoconfident4.5
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 5 at DET 49Q2, down 14puntgoconfident2.9
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 1 at GB 18Q3, down 21puntgoconfident1.5
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 1 at GB 11Q2, down 4puntgoconfident1.3
Every graded 4th down (31)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 20 at GB 33Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 16 at ATL 32Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 4 at ATL 30Q2, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 12 at GB 21Q3, up 27puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 17 at GB 18Q4, up 20puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09GB v ATL4th & 6 at GB 34Q4, up 20puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 8 at GB 19Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 18 at CHI 47Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 9 at CHI 23Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 1 at GB 11Q2, down 4puntgoconfident1.3
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 7 at CHI 25Q3, down 11fgfglean0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 12 at GB 24Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 15 at GB 20Q4, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16GB v CHI4th & 6 at GB 45Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 16 at GB 48Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 15 at GB 35Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 2 at NYJ 11Q3, down 4fggoconfident4.5
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 21 at GB 44Q3, down 15puntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 10 at NYJ 20Q4, down 15fgfguncertain0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 46Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-23GB v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 1Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 6 at GB 25Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 4 at GB 12Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 10 at GB 25Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 5 at DET 49Q2, down 14puntgoconfident2.9
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 6 at GB 45Q2, down 21puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 24 at GB 30Q3, down 21puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 1 at GB 18Q3, down 21puntgoconfident1.5
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 5 at DET 21Q3, down 24gogouncertain0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 9 at DET 49Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30GB v DET4th & 3 at DET 30Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0