Coaches › Head coach
Josh McDaniels
Head coach · DEN/LV · 2009–2023
20–33Regular season
0–0Playoffs
4Seasons
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LV | 3–5 | 53 | 22.6 | 52.8 | 67.9 | 2.62 | |
| 2022 | LV | 6–11 | 115 | 20.0 | 51.3 | 65.2 | 4.56 | |
| 2010 | DEN | 3–9 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2009 | DEN | 8–8 | – | – | – | – | – |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.187 (90% interval +0.037 to +0.367) over 168 decisions. Flagged worse than expected (Benjamini–Hochberg, 50% false discovery rate).
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 2 at SEA 38QOT, tied | fg | goconfident | 14.1 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 4 at PIT 8Q4, down 8 | fg | goconfident | 6.9 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 3 at LV 45Q4, up 2 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2022-10-23 | LV v HOU | 4th & 6 at LV 47Q2, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & 1 at LV 34Q3, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 1 at SEA 7Q3, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & goal at SF 1Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 2 at TEN 3Q1, down 7 | fg | goconfident | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 1 at LV 28Q4, up 1 | punt | goconfident | 3.6 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 16 at DEN 38Q1, tied | punt | fgconfident | 3.4 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 6 at LV 29Q4, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 10 at LV 31Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.1 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 3 at TEN 17Q4, down 11 | fg | goconfident | 2.6 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 20 at TEN 41Q3, down 11 | punt | fgconfident | 2.6 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 10 at JAX 45Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
Every graded 4th down (168)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & goal at LAC 5Q1, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & 1 at LV 11Q2, tied | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & 14 at LV 41Q2, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & 4 at LAC 34Q3, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & 22 at LAC 37Q3, down 14 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-11 | LV v LAC | 4th & 8 at LV 35Q4, down 5 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | LV v ARI | 4th & 5 at ARI 14Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | LV v ARI | 4th & 2 at LV 16Q3, up 20 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2022-09-18 | LV v ARI | 4th & goal at ARI 7Q3, up 13 | fg | golean | 0.3 |
| 2022-09-18 | LV v ARI | 4th & 10 at LV 11Q4, up 16 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | LV v ARI | 4th & 6 at LV 39Q4, up 8 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 2 at TEN 3Q1, down 7 | fg | goconfident | 3.6 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 7 at LV 40Q2, down 11 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 11 at LV 12Q2, down 11 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 29Q3, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 9 at TEN 14Q3, down 14 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 20 at TEN 41Q3, down 11 | punt | fgconfident | 2.6 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 3 at TEN 17Q4, down 11 | fg | goconfident | 2.6 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & 15 at LV 27Q4, down 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | LV v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 9Q4, down 8 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 5 at DEN 8Q1, tied | fg | golean | 0.8 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 21 at LV 2Q1, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 9 at LV 21Q2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 17 at LV 25Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & goal at DEN 3Q3, up 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 3 at LV 39Q4, up 6 | punt | goconfident | 0.8 |
| 2022-10-02 | LV v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 13Q4, up 6 | fg | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 9 at LV 26Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 1 at LV 42Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 1 at KC 34Q2, up 14 | fg | goconfident | 2.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 2 at KC 32Q2, up 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 22 at LV 13Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 17 at KC 29Q4, down 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-10 | LV v KC | 4th & 1 at LV 46Q4, down 1 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | LV v HOU | 4th & 8 at HOU 32Q1, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | LV v HOU | 4th & 26 at LV 13Q1, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | LV v HOU | 4th & 6 at LV 47Q2, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2022-10-23 | LV v HOU | 4th & 1 at HOU 33Q2, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 12 at LV 23Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 15 at LV 43Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 6 at LV 49Q2, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 13 at LV 41Q3, down 24 | punt | golean | 0.2 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 16 at LV 33Q4, down 24 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 5 at NO 45Q4, down 24 | go | puntuncertain | -0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | LV v NO | 4th & 2 at NO 30Q4, down 24 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 10 at LV 25Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 4 at JAX 42Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 3 at JAX 19Q2, up 7 | fg | golean | 1.3 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 3 at JAX 20Q2, up 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 11 at LV 40Q3, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 10 at JAX 45Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 2.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 12 at LV 25Q4, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 2 at LV 39Q4, down 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | LV v JAX | 4th & 17 at LV 18Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 5 at LV 35Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 29 at LV 17Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 6 at LV 29Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 2 at IND 44Q2, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 1 at IND 37Q2, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 7 at LV 41Q4, down 5 | punt | goconfident | 1.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 15 at LV 20Q4, up 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | LV v IND | 4th & 7 at IND 16Q4, down 5 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 16 at DEN 38Q1, tied | punt | fgconfident | 3.4 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 11 at DEN 28Q2, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 5 at DEN 33Q3, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 20 at LV 42Q3, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 8 at LV 27Q4, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 11 at DEN 39Q4, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & 6 at LV 29Q4, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 3.3 |
| 2022-11-20 | LV v DEN | 4th & goal at DEN 7Q4, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 10 at LV 24Q1, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 2 at SEA 43Q2, up 1 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 1 at SEA 7Q3, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 11 at midfieldQ3, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 1 at LV 48Q4, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | LV v SEA | 4th & 2 at SEA 38QOT, tied | fg | goconfident | 14.1 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 4 at LV 31Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 6 at LV 42Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 6 at LAC 37Q2, down 3 | fg | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 1 at LAC 6Q4, up 11 | fg | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 4 at LAC 42Q4, up 7 | punt | golean | 1.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | LV v LAC | 4th & 2 at LAC 40Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 4 at LA 34Q1, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 9 at LA 13Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 1 at LA 49Q3, up 10 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 2 at LV 25Q3, up 10 | punt | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 1 at LA 28Q4, up 10 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 3 at LA 18Q4, up 10 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-08 | LV v LA | 4th & 1 at LV 34Q4, up 6 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 15 at NE 31Q1, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 6 at LV 46Q1, up 3 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 8 at LV 41Q2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 3 at NE 49Q3, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 2.1 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 15 at LV 4Q4, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 11 at LV 36Q4, up 1 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 1 at LV 28Q4, up 1 | punt | goconfident | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 10 at LV 31Q4, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 3.1 |
| 2022-12-18 | LV v NE | 4th & 10 at LV 19Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 7 at LV 32Q1, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 10 at LV 45Q2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 10 at PIT 22Q2, up 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 25 at LV 26Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 8 at LV 42Q4, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 5 at LV 29Q4, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & goal at SF 1Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 3.9 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & 1 at SF 2Q2, down 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & 1 at LV 34Q3, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 4.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & 11 at LV 36Q4, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | LV v SF | 4th & 10 at SF 39Q4, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & 13 at KC 35Q1, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & goal at KC 2Q2, down 11 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & 11 at KC 20Q3, down 21 | fg | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & 3 at LV 35Q3, down 18 | punt | goconfident | 0.3 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & 6 at LV 8Q4, down 18 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2023-01-07 | LV v KC | 4th & 21 at LV 43Q4, down 18 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | LV v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 35Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | LV v DEN | 4th & goal at DEN 5Q2, up 1 | fg | gouncertain | 0.9 |
| 2023-09-10 | LV v DEN | 4th & 1 at LV 26Q2, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | LV v BUF | 4th & 5 at LV 36Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2023-09-17 | LV v BUF | 4th & 12 at BUF 29Q2, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | LV v BUF | 4th & 3 at LV 9Q2, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2023-09-17 | LV v BUF | 4th & 3 at LV 42Q4, down 21 | punt | goconfident | 0.2 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 3 at LV 19Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 1 at PIT 32Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 5 at LV 30Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 3 at LV 32Q2, down 3 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 12 at LV 40Q2, down 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 3 at LV 32Q3, down 6 | punt | gouncertain | -0.6 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 5 at PIT 22Q4, down 16 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | LV v PIT | 4th & 4 at PIT 8Q4, down 8 | fg | goconfident | 6.9 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 14 at LV 21Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 12 at LV 23Q2, down 17 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 1 at LV 33Q2, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 10 at LV 25Q3, down 17 | punt | golean | 0.1 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 2 at LAC 32Q3, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & goal at LAC 4Q3, down 17 | fg | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 30 at LAC 38Q4, down 14 | punt | fgconfident | 0.6 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & goal at LAC 1Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | LV v LAC | 4th & 10 at LAC 22Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 15 at LV 38Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 12 at GB 47Q2, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 1 at GB 16Q2, down 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & goal at GB 8Q2, up 4 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 3 at GB 35Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 6 at LV 32Q3, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 13 at LV 39Q4, up 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-09 | LV v GB | 4th & 2 at GB 34Q4, up 4 | fg | golean | 0.8 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 5 at NE 6Q1, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 5 at LV 30Q2, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 4 at NE 19Q2, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 11 at NE 12Q3, up 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & goal at NE 6Q4, up 6 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | LV v NE | 4th & 3 at LV 45Q4, up 2 | punt | goconfident | 4.3 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 4 at CHI 23Q1, tied | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 5 at CHI 47Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 6 at CHI 21Q2, down 14 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 7 at LV 45Q3, down 11 | punt | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 4 at CHI 9Q4, down 18 | go | golean | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & goal at CHI 6Q4, down 18 | fg | golean | 0.4 |
| 2023-10-22 | LV v CHI | 4th & 4 at LV 27Q4, down 24 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 1 at LV 46Q1, down 3 | punt | goconfident | 0.5 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 2 at LV 49Q1, down 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 6 at LV 29Q2, down 6 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 16 at LV 30Q3, down 9 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 5 at LV 8Q3, down 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 13 at LV 41Q3, down 9 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 10 at LV 36Q4, down 12 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-10-30 | LV v DET | 4th & 18 at LV 32Q4, down 12 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |