Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Kellen Moore

Head coach · NO · 2025–2026

9–16Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2026NO3–56025.040.081.72.36
2025NO6–1112925.654.369.02.34

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.027 (90% interval −0.123 to +0.086) over 189 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 3 at NO 37Q4, down 4puntgoconfident5.9
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 7 at NO 38Q4, down 6puntgoconfident3.9
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 4 at DET 10Q4, down 7fggoconfident3.8
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 4 at NE 16Q1, tiedfggoconfident3.8
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & goal at CAR 2Q1, down 7fggoconfident3.5
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 2 at NO 45Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.7
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 4 at NE 20Q2, down 1fggoconfident2.4
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 44Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 3 at ATL 8Q3, down 17fggoconfident2.0
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 38Q2, down 13fggoconfident1.7
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 2 at NO 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 1 at NO 39Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.5
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 6 at SF 22Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.5
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 3 at BAL 5Q2, down 7fggoconfident1.5
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 7 at TB 46Q2, down 7puntgoconfident1.5
Every graded 4th down (189)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 7 at NO 26Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 5 at ARI 18Q2, down 3fggolean0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 13 at NO 31Q3, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 5 at ARI 20Q3, down 10fgfglean0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 7 at NO 40Q4, down 10puntgoconfident0.9
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 15 at NO 12Q4, down 10puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & goal at ARI 10Q4, down 10fggolean0.5
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 1 at ARI 24Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-07NO v ARI4th & 10 at ARI 18Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 6 at SF 22Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.5
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 10 at SF 41Q1, tiedpuntfguncertain0.2
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 16 at NO 26Q1, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 9 at NO 30Q2, down 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 1 at SF 21Q3, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 11 at NO 10Q4, down 5puntgoconfident0.8
2025-09-14NO v SF4th & 1 at NO 42Q4, down 5gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 2 at SEA 45Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 5 at NO 34Q1, down 7puntgolean0.1
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 12 at NO 30Q1, down 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 4 at SEA 9Q2, down 21fggoconfident0.6
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 6 at NO 32Q2, down 25puntgoconfident0.1
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 2 at SEA 33Q2, down 32fggoconfident0.1
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 12 at NO 22Q3, down 35puntgoconfident0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 4 at SEA 38Q4, down 31gopuntuncertain-0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 7 at NO 16Q4, down 31puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-21NO v SEA4th & 4 at NO 40Q4, down 31puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 21 at NO 44Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 8 at BUF 47Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.1
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 9 at BUF 36Q2, down 7fgfguncertain0.0
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 49Q3, down 4puntgoconfident0.4
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 13 at BUF 17Q4, down 5fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 3 at BUF 43Q4, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-28NO v BUF4th & 6 at NO 39Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 11 at NO 8Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 8 at NYG 10Q1, down 7fggouncertain1.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 12 at NYG 35Q2, down 11fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 11 at NYG 34Q2, down 1fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & goal at NYG 9Q3, up 2fgfglean0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 1 at NO 32Q4, up 12puntgoconfident1.2
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 5 at NYG 40Q4, up 12gogouncertain0.0
2025-10-05NO v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 28Q4, up 12fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 4 at NE 16Q1, tiedfggoconfident3.8
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 8 at NE 30Q1, down 4fgfguncertain0.0
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 4 at NE 20Q2, down 1fggoconfident2.4
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 17 at NE 47Q3, down 9puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 9 at NE 36Q4, down 9fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12NO v NE4th & 7 at NO 38Q4, down 6puntgoconfident3.9
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 6 at NO 37Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 9 at CHI 35Q1, down 3fgfglean0.0
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 21 at NO 24Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 1 at CHI 42Q2, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 20 at NO 27Q4, down 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19NO v CHI4th & 2 at CHI 26Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 10 at TB 41Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.1
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 7 at TB 46Q2, down 7puntgoconfident1.5
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 17 at NO 8Q3, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 2 at NO 44Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 11 at TB 24Q4, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 3 at NO 26Q4, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-26NO v TB4th & 4 at TB 42Q4, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 1 at NO 39Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.5
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 16 at NO 29Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 1 at NO 13Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.9
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 6 at LA 21Q2, down 13fggouncertain0.1
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 7 at NO 38Q2, down 17puntgoconfident0.1
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 2 at LA 7Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02NO v LA4th & 4 at LA 24Q4, down 24gogolean0.0
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & goal at CAR 2Q1, down 7fggoconfident3.5
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 3 at NO 9Q2, down 4puntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 1 at NO 34Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 4 at NO 40Q2, up 3puntgoconfident1.5
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 9 at CAR 45Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 2 at NO 45Q3, up 3puntgoconfident2.7
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 1 at midfieldQ3, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09NO v CAR4th & 4 at CAR 32Q4, up 3gogouncertain0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 15 at ATL 21Q1, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 1 at NO 38Q1, down 3puntgouncertain-0.4
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 13 at ATL 49Q2, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 4 at ATL 29Q2, down 6fgfguncertain0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & goal at ATL 1Q3, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 1 at midfieldQ3, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 1 at ATL 7Q4, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & goal at ATL 15Q4, down 9fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 14 at NO 31Q4, down 14puntgoconfident0.6
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 15 at NO 29Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23NO v ATL4th & 7 at ATL 29Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 2 at NO 35Q1, down 7puntgolean-0.1
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 4 at NO 40Q1, down 7puntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 3 at MIA 49Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.4
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 10 at NO 20Q2, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 13 at NO 42Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 12 at NO 10Q4, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 7 at MIA 37Q4, down 11fggoconfident0.9
2025-11-30NO v MIA4th & 1 at MIA 36Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 11 at NO 22Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 5 at TB 30Q2, tiedfgfglean0.0
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 20 at NO 18Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 1 at TB 42Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 5 at TB 12Q3, down 3fggolean1.1
2025-12-07NO v TB4th & 11 at midfieldQ4, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14NO v CAR4th & 6 at NO 32Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14NO v CAR4th & 9 at CAR 49Q1, down 7puntgolean0.3
2025-12-14NO v CAR4th & 1 at CAR 6Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-14NO v CAR4th & 20 at CAR 24Q3, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14NO v CAR4th & 1 at CAR 23Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 4 at NYJ 17Q1, down 3fggoconfident1.3
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 16 at NYJ 31Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 1 at NO 45Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 5 at NYJ 18Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 10 at NYJ 43Q2, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 13 at NO 24Q3, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 8 at NYJ 32Q4, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-21NO v NYJ4th & 11 at NYJ 21Q4, up 13fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 12 at NO 18Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 25Q1, down 3fggoconfident0.9
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 4 at NO 26Q1, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 38Q2, down 13fggoconfident1.7
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 9 at TEN 39Q3, down 6fgfguncertain0.0
2025-12-28NO v TEN4th & 13 at NO 35Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 1 at NO 23Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 8 at NO 13Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 38Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 6 at NO 37Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 23 at NO 38Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 4 at ATL 43Q3, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 3 at ATL 22Q3, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & goal at ATL 11Q3, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 5 at NO 30Q4, down 6puntgoconfident1.2
2026-01-04NO v ATL4th & 1 at NO 44Q4, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 2 at NO 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 7 at NO 30Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 10 at NO 38Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 23 at NO 13Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 14 at midfieldQ2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 4 at DET 10Q4, down 7fggoconfident3.8
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 12 at NO 23Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13NO v DET4th & 3 at NO 27QOT, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 9 at NO 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 43Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.8
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 3 at BAL 5Q2, down 7fggoconfident1.5
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 4 at BAL 33Q3, down 8fgfglean0.0
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 27 at NO 9Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & 1 at BAL 44Q4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20NO v BAL4th & goal at BAL 1Q4, tiedgogolean0.0
2026-09-27NO v LV4th & 8 at NO 29Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27NO v LV4th & 13 at NO 19Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27NO v LV4th & 15 at LV 48Q3, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27NO v LV4th & 1 at LV 20Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 18 at NO 19Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 6 at ATL 34Q1, down 7fgfguncertain0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 6 at NO 33Q2, down 14puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 16 at ATL 47Q2, down 17puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 3 at ATL 8Q3, down 17fggoconfident2.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 43Q3, down 21gogolean0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 1 at ATL 16Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 6 at NO 30Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-05NO v ATL4th & 7 at midfieldQ4, down 28gopuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 9 at NO 28Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 2 at MIN 41Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 1 at MIN 27Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 5 at NO 26Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 8 at NO 15Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 24 at NO 13Q4, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11NO v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 44Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 6 at NYG 44Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 9 at NO 33Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 12 at NO 39Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 10 at NYG 37Q2, down 7fgfglean0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 10 at NYG 40Q2, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & goal at NYG 2Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 4 at NYG 32Q3, up 14fgfguncertain0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 1 at NO 34Q4, up 17puntgoconfident0.7
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 10 at NYG 49Q4, up 16puntpuntlean0.0
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 5 at NYG 44Q4, up 10puntgoconfident0.4
2026-10-18NO v NYG4th & 3 at NO 32Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & 15 at PIT 48Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & 12 at PIT 20Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & 2 at PIT 44Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & goal at PIT 1Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & 7 at PIT 34Q4, down 6fggouncertain0.1
2026-10-25NO v PIT4th & 18 at NO 32Q4, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 10 at CLE 12Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 14 at CLE 34Q1, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 9 at NO 45Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 4 at NO 42Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 8 at CLE 9Q3, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 18 at NO 29Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 8 at CLE 30Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-08NO v CLE4th & 3 at NO 37Q4, down 4puntgoconfident5.9