Red Zone Math

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Klint Kubiak

Head coach · LV · 2026–2026

4–5Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2026LV4–55923.749.267.82.01

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.061 (90% interval −0.174 to +0.099) over 59 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 26Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.6
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 5 at BUF 17Q2, down 6fggoconfident2.5
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 2 at KC 30Q4, down 1fggolean1.9
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & goal at BUF 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.8
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 10 at LV 18Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.8
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 8 at LA 12Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.6
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 2 at MIA 29Q2, up 7fggoconfident1.2
2026-11-08LV v SF4th & 3 at LV 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.7
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 9 at KC 13Q2, tiedfggouncertain0.7
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 8 at LAC 46Q4, up 3puntgolean0.6
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 15 at NE 40Q2, down 7puntfgconfident0.6
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 5 at LV 37Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.5
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 5 at NO 18Q2, down 3fggouncertain0.4
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 2 at LV 39Q4, up 14puntgoconfident0.3
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 10 at LA 18Q4, down 17fggoconfident0.2
Every graded 4th down (59)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 1 at MIA 34Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 2 at MIA 29Q2, up 7fggoconfident1.2
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & goal at MIA 12Q3, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 2 at LV 39Q4, up 14puntgoconfident0.3
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 12 at LV 22Q4, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13LV v MIA4th & 15 at LV 42Q4, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 3 at LV 28Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & goal at LAC 1Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 13 at LV 44Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 9 at LAC 41Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 9 at LV 18Q3, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 35Q3, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 8 at LAC 46Q4, up 3puntgolean0.6
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 1 at LV 26Q4, up 3puntgoconfident2.6
2026-09-20LV v LAC4th & 2 at LAC 40Q4, up 10puntgoconfident0.2
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 16 at NO 23Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 5 at NO 18Q2, down 3fggouncertain0.4
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 5 at LV 42Q3, up 3puntpuntlean0.0
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 10 at LV 10Q3, down 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-27LV v NO4th & 14 at LV 40Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 14 at LV 42Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 1 at LV 39Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 9 at KC 13Q2, tiedfggouncertain0.7
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 2 at KC 18Q3, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 11 at LV 35Q3, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 5 at LV 31Q3, up 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 11 at KC 26Q4, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 2 at KC 30Q4, down 1fggolean1.9
2026-10-04LV v KC4th & 10 at LV 16Q4, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 6 at LV 39Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 5 at LV 32Q2, down 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 15 at NE 40Q2, down 7puntfgconfident0.6
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 14 at NE 31Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 5 at LV 37Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.5
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 13 at NE 27Q3, down 21fgfguncertain0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 3 at LV 49Q3, down 25gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11LV v NE4th & 4 at NE 14Q4, down 28gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 4 at LV 37Q2, up 1puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 5 at BUF 17Q2, down 6fggoconfident2.5
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 10 at LV 30Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & goal at BUF 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.8
2026-10-18LV v BUF4th & 10 at LV 18Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.8
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 9 at LV 39Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 13 at LA 33Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 8 at LA 12Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.6
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 10 at LV 35Q2, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 3 at LA 48Q2, down 18gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 1 at LA 10Q2, down 25fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 2 at LA 13Q3, down 22gogolean0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 5 at LA 25Q3, down 22gofguncertain0.1
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 10 at LV 35Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-25LV v LA4th & 10 at LA 18Q4, down 17fggoconfident0.2
2026-11-01LV v NYJ4th & 11 at LV 31Q2, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01LV v NYJ4th & 1 at NYJ 46Q2, down 6gogoconfident0.0
2026-11-01LV v NYJ4th & 4 at LV 35Q4, up 5puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-11-01LV v NYJ4th & 5 at NYJ 35Q4, up 2fgpuntconfident0.2
2026-11-08LV v SF4th & 3 at LV 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.7
2026-11-08LV v SF4th & 10 at SF 31Q2, down 14fggouncertain0.0
2026-11-08LV v SF4th & 11 at LV 31Q4, down 21gogoconfident0.0