Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Liam Coen

Head coach · JAX · 2025–2026

19–6Regular season
0–1Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2026JAX6–24710.644.766.02.98
2025JAX13–40–112224.641.873.82.01

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.079 (90% interval −0.021 to +0.199) over 169 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 4 at HOU 42Q4, down 3fggoconfident9.1
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 47Q4, up 3puntgoconfident6.6
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 4 at ARI 34QOT, tiedfggolean4.1
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 6 at JAX 41Q4, down 8puntgoconfident3.2
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 1 at JAX 30Q4, up 3puntgoconfident3.1
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 41Q4, up 6puntgoconfident2.8
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 1 at HOU 29Q3, up 7fggoconfident2.3
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 6 at CIN 37Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.2
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 3 at IND 16Q3, down 3fggoconfident2.1
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 2 at HOU 14Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.8
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 2 at JAX 31Q4, up 2puntgolean1.7
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 1 at JAX 28Q3, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 11 at JAX 34Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.6
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 3 at LA 32Q2, down 14fggoconfident1.5
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 6 at HOU 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.3
Every graded 4th down (169)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 1 at JAX 37Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 8 at CAR 17Q1, tiedfgfglean0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 5 at JAX 27Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 7 at JAX 9Q3, up 17puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 1 at CAR 34Q4, up 17gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 9 at CAR 18Q4, up 17fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-07JAX v CAR4th & 3 at CAR 10Q4, up 13fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 12 at CIN 24Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 1 at JAX 28Q3, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & goal at CIN 7Q4, tiedfggouncertain0.7
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 47Q4, up 3puntgoconfident6.6
2025-09-14JAX v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 7Q4, up 3gogouncertain0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 3 at JAX 10Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 6 at JAX 46Q2, up 7puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 5 at JAX 25Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 31 at JAX 10Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 44Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 13 at HOU 21Q3, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 1 at HOU 29Q3, up 7fggoconfident2.3
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 3 at JAX 32Q4, up 7puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-21JAX v HOU4th & 2 at HOU 47Q4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 1 at SF 40Q1, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 13 at SF 40Q1, down 3puntfgconfident0.9
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 11 at JAX 28Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 4 at SF 8Q2, up 8fgfgconfident0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 6 at JAX 39Q3, up 11puntpuntlean0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 7 at SF 43Q3, up 3puntgouncertain0.4
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 7 at SF 25Q3, up 3fgfglean0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 2 at JAX 34Q4, up 12puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-09-28JAX v SF4th & 4 at SF 29Q4, up 5fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-06JAX v KC4th & 2 at JAX 38Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2025-10-06JAX v KC4th & 2 at JAX 22Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.3
2025-10-06JAX v KC4th & goal at KC 1Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-06JAX v KC4th & 5 at KC 34Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 23 at JAX 7Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 11 at JAX 40Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 18 at JAX 4Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 15 at SEA 46Q2, down 4puntpuntuncertain0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 1 at SEA 31Q2, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 18 at SEA 32Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 10 at JAX 43Q3, down 14puntgolean-0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 5 at SEA 49Q3, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 2 at SEA 30Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 5 at JAX 17Q4, down 8puntgoconfident1.0
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 6 at JAX 41Q4, down 8puntgoconfident3.2
2025-10-12JAX v SEA4th & 18 at JAX 28Q4, down 8puntgoconfident1.2
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 7 at JAX 33Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 13 at JAX 30Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 1 at LA 46Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 12 at LA 45Q2, down 14puntgolean0.5
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 3 at LA 32Q2, down 14fggoconfident1.5
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 7 at LA 11Q2, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 2 at LA 30Q3, down 21gogoconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 7 at LA 27Q3, down 21gogouncertain0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 23 at LA 48Q3, down 21puntgolean0.1
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 15 at JAX 16Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.2
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 10 at LA 38Q4, down 28gopuntconfident0.0
2025-10-19JAX v LA4th & 13 at LA 14Q4, down 28gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 6 at JAX 44Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 1 at LV 15Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 20 at LV 46Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 5 at LV 15Q3, down 3fggouncertain0.2
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 2 at LV 13Q3, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & 5 at LV 30Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-02JAX v LV4th & goal at LV 1QOT, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 2 at HOU 14Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.8
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 13 at JAX 38Q2, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 34Q2, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 4 at HOU 15Q3, up 10fgfguncertain0.0
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 14 at JAX 9Q4, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-09JAX v HOU4th & 4 at HOU 49Q4, up 5puntgouncertain0.6
2025-11-16JAX v LAC4th & 3 at LAC 41Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-11-16JAX v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 36Q2, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-16JAX v LAC4th & 3 at LAC 30Q4, up 29gopuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16JAX v LAC4th & 1 at JAX 47Q4, up 29gopuntconfident0.0
2025-11-16JAX v LAC4th & 2 at LAC 18Q4, up 29gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 14 at ARI 34Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 6 at JAX 39Q2, down 4puntgouncertain0.9
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 1 at JAX 30Q4, up 3puntgoconfident3.1
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 1 at ARI 19Q4, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-23JAX v ARI4th & 4 at ARI 34QOT, tiedfggolean4.1
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 5 at TEN 49Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 10 at JAX 29Q2, up 12puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 7 at JAX 28Q2, up 12puntpuntlean0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 25 at JAX 5Q2, up 12puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 1 at TEN 4Q3, up 15gogoconfident0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 35 at JAX 22Q4, up 22puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 15 at JAX 29Q4, up 22puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-11-30JAX v TEN4th & 8 at midfieldQ4, up 22puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 7 at JAX 40Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 8 at JAX 31Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 10 at JAX 22Q3, up 15puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 1 at JAX 46Q3, up 15gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 4 at IND 17Q4, up 15fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 1 at IND 9Q4, up 18gofguncertain-0.0
2025-12-07JAX v IND4th & 8 at IND 29Q4, up 20fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14JAX v NYJ4th & 18 at JAX 2Q2, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-14JAX v NYJ4th & 10 at NYJ 15Q2, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-14JAX v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 4Q3, up 25fgfguncertain0.0
2025-12-14JAX v NYJ4th & 1 at JAX 29Q4, up 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 5 at JAX 34Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 10 at JAX 41Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 26 at JAX 12Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & goal at DEN 7Q4, up 14fggolean-0.1
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 10 at JAX 33Q4, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 6 at JAX 46Q4, up 14puntgolean0.2
2025-12-21JAX v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 38Q4, up 14puntfgconfident0.1
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 24 at JAX 29Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 12 at JAX 34Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 3 at IND 16Q3, down 3fggoconfident2.1
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 1 at IND 24Q4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 13 at IND 24Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 1 at IND 39Q4, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2025-12-28JAX v IND4th & 9 at IND 35Q4, up 3fgpuntconfident0.4
2026-01-04JAX v TEN4th & 28 at JAX 13Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04JAX v TEN4th & 12 at JAX 18Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04JAX v TEN4th & 17 at TEN 48Q3, up 24puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-04JAX v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 34Q3, up 24fgfguncertain0.0
2026-01-11JAX v BUF4th & 8 at JAX 36Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-01-11JAX v BUF4th & 2 at BUF 9Q2, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-01-11JAX v BUF4th & 6 at JAX 30Q2, down 3puntpuntlean0.0
2026-01-11JAX v BUF4th & 9 at BUF 25Q3, down 6fgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-13JAX v CLE4th & 1 at CLE 29Q2, up 14fggoconfident0.3
2026-09-13JAX v CLE4th & 12 at JAX 22Q2, up 24puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-13JAX v CLE4th & 9 at CLE 22Q3, up 28fgfguncertain0.0
2026-09-13JAX v CLE4th & 5 at JAX 39Q4, up 31puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 8 at midfieldQ1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 18 at JAX 42Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 9 at JAX 32Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & goal at DEN 5Q3, up 7fggoconfident0.7
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 8 at DEN 36Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2026-09-20JAX v DEN4th & 11 at JAX 34Q4, down 7puntgoconfident1.6
2026-09-27JAX v NE4th & 1 at JAX 21Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.0
2026-09-27JAX v NE4th & 2 at JAX 32Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2026-09-27JAX v NE4th & 3 at JAX 48Q2, up 11fgfguncertain0.0
2026-09-27JAX v NE4th & 8 at JAX 27Q4, up 29puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 10 at JAX 20Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 6 at CIN 37Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.2
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & goal at CIN 10Q2, tiedfggouncertain0.6
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 10 at CIN 36Q3, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 41Q4, up 6puntgoconfident2.8
2026-10-04JAX v CIN4th & 8 at JAX 47Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 30 at JAX 18Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 2 at JAX 30Q1, up 7puntgoconfident0.9
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 21 at JAX 24Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 1 at PHI 19Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & goal at PHI 1Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 12 at PHI 16Q3, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 7 at JAX 35Q4, down 4puntgolean0.7
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & goal at PHI 5Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 5 at PHI 27Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2026-10-11JAX v PHI4th & 2 at JAX 31Q4, up 2puntgolean1.7
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 6 at HOU 42Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.3
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 3 at HOU 37Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 7 at JAX 33Q3, down 10puntgouncertain0.2
2026-10-18JAX v HOU4th & 4 at HOU 42Q4, down 3fggoconfident9.1
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 7 at JAX 49Q1, up 7puntgoconfident0.5
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 5 at JAX 23Q2, up 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 21 at JAX 11Q3, up 28puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 13 at JAX 25Q4, up 35puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 11 at IND 43Q4, up 35puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-01JAX v IND4th & 5 at JAX 47Q4, up 35puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 7 at BAL 18Q1, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 7 at JAX 24Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 11 at BAL 27Q3, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 5 at JAX 23Q3, up 17puntpuntlean0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 2 at BAL 29Q4, up 17fggolean0.1
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 2 at BAL 15Q4, up 20fgfgconfident0.0
2026-11-05JAX v BAL4th & 1 at JAX 33Q4, up 23puntgouncertain0.0