Coaches › Head coach
Lovie Smith
Head coach · CHI/TB/HOU · 2004–2022
92–100–1Regular season
3–3Playoffs
12Seasons
2005AP Coach of the Year
Season by season
4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).
| Season | Team | Record | Playoffs | 4th-down decisions | Went for it % | Model said go % | Agrees with model % | WP lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | HOU | 3–13–1 | 133 | 18.8 | 56.4 | 58.6 | 3.44 | |
| 2015 | TB | 6–10 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2014 | TB | 2–14 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2012 | CHI | 10–6 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2011 | CHI | 8–8 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2010 | CHI | 11–5 | 1–1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2009 | CHI | 7–9 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2008 | CHI | 9–7 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2007 | CHI | 7–9 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 2006 | CHI | 13–3 | 2–1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2005 | CHI | 11–5 | 0–1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2004 | CHI | 5–11 | – | – | – | – | – |
4th-down rating
WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.015 (90% interval −0.102 to +0.144) over 133 decisions. Not separable from average.
Biggest disagreements with the model
Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 5 at CLE 44Q2, up 5 | punt | goconfident | 5.9 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 1 at JAX 49Q3, tied | punt | goconfident | 5.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 4 at DAL 40Q4, up 3 | punt | fguncertain | 4.4 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 1 at midfieldQ2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.2 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 4Q4, down 4 | fg | goconfident | 4.1 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 2 at HOU 16Q2, up 5 | punt | goconfident | 2.9 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 2 at CHI 21Q3, up 1 | fg | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 2 at HOU 33Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 1 at HOU 34Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 2 at HOU 45Q2, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 7 at IND 45Q1, up 3 | punt | golean | 1.7 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & goal at DEN 6Q3, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 5 at JAX 48Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 6 at midfieldQ2, down 2 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 7 at HOU 28Q4, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
Every graded 4th down (133)
Every graded 4th down
| Date | Game | Situation | Call | Model | WP lost (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 2 at HOU 33Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 5 at HOU 36Q1, tied | punt | gouncertain | -0.3 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 5 at DEN 22Q1, down 3 | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 11 at DEN 26Q2, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 16 at HOU 27Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 1 at DEN 14Q3, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & goal at DEN 6Q3, tied | fg | goconfident | 1.6 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 6 at HOU 13Q3, up 3 | punt | gouncertain | -0.4 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 14 at DEN 45Q4, down 4 | punt | fglean | 0.3 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 15 at DEN 37Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-18 | HOU v DEN | 4th & 11 at HOU 24Q4, down 7 | go | gouncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 4 at HOU 31Q1, down 3 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 6 at HOU 44Q2, down 3 | punt | golean | 0.5 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 1 at HOU 34Q2, up 1 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 2 at CHI 21Q3, up 1 | fg | goconfident | 1.9 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 4 at CHI 5Q3, down 3 | fg | gouncertain | -0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 19 at CHI 48Q4, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-09-25 | HOU v CHI | 4th & 10 at HOU 39Q4, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 31 at HOU 36Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 4 at LAC 28Q1, down 7 | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 5 at HOU 30Q2, down 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 1 at LAC 24Q2, down 17 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 22 at HOU 29Q3, down 20 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 16 at LAC 22Q4, down 6 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-02 | HOU v LAC | 4th & 16 at HOU 19Q4, down 10 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 6 at HOU 29Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 5 at JAX 48Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 1.4 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 8 at HOU 26Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 3 at JAX 31Q2, down 3 | fg | gouncertain | 0.2 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 9 at JAX 33Q2, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 1 at JAX 49Q3, tied | punt | goconfident | 5.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 6 at HOU 42Q4, tied | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-09 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 9 at JAX 49Q4, up 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 6 at LV 21Q1, down 3 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 2 at LV 37Q2, up 4 | fg | goconfident | 1.2 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 9 at LV 17Q3, tied | fg | gouncertain | 1.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 5 at HOU 29Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 9 at HOU 38Q4, down 11 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | HOU v LV | 4th & 6 at LV 14Q4, down 18 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 8 at HOU 8Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 23 at HOU 45Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 23 at TEN 24Q2, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 10 at HOU 10Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 4 at HOU 40Q2, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 14 at HOU 37Q3, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 17 at HOU 47Q3, down 11 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 15 at HOU 20Q4, down 14 | punt | golean | 0.2 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 13 at HOU 16Q4, down 14 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 1 at HOU 19Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 6 at HOU 26Q4, down 14 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-03 | HOU v PHI | 4th & 3 at HOU 43Q2, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2022-11-03 | HOU v PHI | 4th & 15 at HOU 44Q2, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-03 | HOU v PHI | 4th & 13 at HOU 33Q3, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-03 | HOU v PHI | 4th & 9 at PHI 12Q3, down 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-03 | HOU v PHI | 4th & 14 at HOU 49Q4, down 12 | punt | goconfident | 0.2 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 23 at HOU 25Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 4 at HOU 31Q1, down 7 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 6 at HOU 24Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 10 at NYG 19Q2, down 7 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 2 at HOU 45Q2, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 14 at HOU 42Q2, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | HOU v NYG | 4th & 8 at NYG 16Q4, down 11 | fg | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 14 at HOU 21Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 1 at HOU 34Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 1.7 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 17 at HOU 24Q1, down 7 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 21 at HOU 14Q2, down 14 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 12 at HOU 23Q2, down 17 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 3 at WAS 15Q3, down 20 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & goal at WAS 11Q3, down 20 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 22 at HOU 9Q3, down 17 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 2 at HOU 33Q4, down 20 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 4 at WAS 27Q4, down 20 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | HOU v WAS | 4th & 4 at WAS 13Q4, down 20 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 6 at HOU 29Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.4 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 22 at HOU 9Q1, down 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 6 at HOU 43Q1, down 10 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 6 at HOU 29Q2, down 17 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 6 at HOU 34Q2, down 27 | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 9 at HOU 27Q3, down 30 | punt | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 4 at MIA 10Q4, down 18 | fg | golean | 0.1 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 20 at HOU 31Q4, down 15 | punt | goconfident | 0.1 |
| 2022-11-27 | HOU v MIA | 4th & 1 at HOU 49Q4, down 15 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 3 at HOU 28Q1, tied | punt | goconfident | 0.6 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 19 at CLE 25Q1, tied | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & goal at CLE 1Q2, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 5 at CLE 44Q2, up 5 | punt | goconfident | 5.9 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 2 at HOU 16Q2, up 5 | punt | goconfident | 2.9 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 6 at midfieldQ2, down 2 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 3 at HOU 33Q2, down 2 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 5 at CLE 17Q3, down 9 | fg | fguncertain | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 9 at HOU 20Q3, down 6 | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 10 at HOU 36Q4, down 16 | punt | goconfident | 0.4 |
| 2022-12-04 | HOU v CLE | 4th & 3 at CLE 45Q4, down 19 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 7 at HOU 28Q1, down 7 | punt | gouncertain | -0.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 8 at DAL 25Q1, tied | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 3 at DAL 42Q2, down 4 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 8 at HOU 23Q2, down 4 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 3 at DAL 35Q3, up 3 | fg | fglean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 7 at HOU 28Q4, up 3 | punt | goconfident | 1.3 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & 4 at DAL 40Q4, up 3 | punt | fguncertain | 4.4 |
| 2022-12-11 | HOU v DAL | 4th & goal at DAL 3Q4, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 7 at HOU 39Q1, tied | punt | golean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 10 at HOU 15Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 11 at HOU 35Q2, tied | punt | puntlean | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 1 at midfieldQ2, up 7 | punt | goconfident | 4.2 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & 10 at HOU 25Q3, down 2 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | HOU v KC | 4th & goal at KC 10Q4, down 3 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 8 at HOU 28Q1, tied | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 5 at TEN 7Q2, tied | fg | gouncertain | -0.1 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 11 at HOU 22Q2, up 3 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 1 at TEN 47Q3, up 3 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 6 at HOU 42Q3, down 4 | punt | gouncertain | 0.1 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 10 at HOU 31Q3, down 4 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & goal at TEN 4Q4, down 4 | fg | goconfident | 4.1 |
| 2022-12-24 | HOU v TEN | 4th & 10 at TEN 38Q4, up 5 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 1 at HOU 45Q1, tied | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 3 at HOU 33Q1, down 7 | punt | goconfident | 0.2 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 4 at HOU 30Q1, down 7 | punt | gouncertain | -0.3 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 4 at HOU 17Q2, down 7 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 1 at HOU 34Q2, down 21 | punt | goconfident | 1.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 5 at JAX 10Q2, down 21 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 6 at JAX 42Q2, down 21 | punt | goconfident | 0.7 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 7 at JAX 38Q3, down 28 | fg | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 3 at HOU 49Q4, down 25 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 15 at HOU 5Q4, down 25 | punt | puntuncertain | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | HOU v JAX | 4th & 18 at HOU 47Q4, down 28 | go | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 11 at IND 19Q1, up 7 | fg | fgconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 7 at IND 45Q1, up 3 | punt | golean | 1.7 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 15 at IND 43Q2, up 10 | punt | fglean | 0.4 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 10 at HOU 15Q3, up 10 | punt | puntconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 2 at HOU 33Q4, down 4 | punt | goconfident | 1.8 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 12 at IND 48Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | HOU v IND | 4th & 20 at IND 28Q4, down 7 | go | goconfident | 0.0 |