Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Romeo Crennel

Head coach · CLE/KC/HOU · 2005–2020

32–63Regular season
0–0Playoffs
7Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2020HOU4–87215.361.152.83.61
2012KC2–14–––––
2011KC2–1–––––
2008CLE4–12–––––
2007CLE10–6–––––
2006CLE4–12–––––
2005CLE6–10–––––

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.147 (90% interval −0.075 to +0.407) over 72 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 42Q2, down 4puntgoconfident5.5
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & goal at CIN 3Q1, down 7fggoconfident4.3
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 1 at HOU 34Q1, down 7puntgoconfident4.1
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 13 at CLE 30Q2, down 3puntfgconfident3.1
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 3 at HOU 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.3
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 2 at HOU 33Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 7 at CHI 46Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 2 at CLE 27Q3, down 3fggoconfident2.1
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 7 at IND 34Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.5
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 1 at HOU 29Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.4
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 3 at NE 28Q4, up 4fggoconfident1.3
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 7 at HOU 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.1
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & goal at TEN 6Q1, down 3fggoconfident1.1
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 3 at JAX 36Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.1
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 3 at HOU 32Q3, down 11puntgoconfident1.1
Every graded 4th down (72)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2020-10-11HOU v JAX4th & 8 at JAX 46Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.9
2020-10-11HOU v JAX4th & 8 at JAX 18Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2020-10-11HOU v JAX4th & 4 at JAX 15Q3, up 3fggoconfident1.1
2020-10-11HOU v JAX4th & 3 at JAX 28Q4, up 6fggolean0.3
2020-10-11HOU v JAX4th & 4 at JAX 28Q4, up 9gogolean0.0
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 6 at HOU 44Q1, tiedpuntgolean0.5
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 4 at HOU 31Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.5
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & goal at TEN 1Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 3 at HOU 32Q3, down 11puntgoconfident1.1
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 20 at HOU 49Q4, up 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & 1 at TEN 35Q4, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2020-10-18HOU v TEN4th & goal at TEN 1Q4, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 2 at HOU 33Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 7 at HOU 44Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.1
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 7 at HOU 40Q2, down 14puntgoconfident0.9
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 11 at GB 22Q2, down 14fggouncertain0.5
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 4 at HOU 31Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.4
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 15 at GB 20Q4, down 21fgfguncertain0.0
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & goal at GB 11Q4, down 18fggouncertain0.1
2020-10-25HOU v GB4th & 1 at HOU 47Q4, down 15gogoconfident0.0
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 3 at JAX 36Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.1
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 5 at HOU 11Q1, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 8 at JAX 11Q2, up 3fggouncertain0.1
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 5 at HOU 30Q3, up 4puntpuntlean0.0
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 15 at HOU 39Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 8 at JAX 39Q4, up 8puntpuntuncertain0.0
2020-11-08HOU v JAX4th & 11 at JAX 43Q4, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 8 at HOU 35Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & goal at CLE 2Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 13 at CLE 30Q2, down 3puntfgconfident3.1
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 10 at HOU 36Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 2 at CLE 27Q3, down 3fggoconfident2.1
2020-11-15HOU v CLE4th & 5 at HOU 30Q4, down 10puntgoconfident0.7
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 3 at HOU 47Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.3
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 18 at HOU 29Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 4 at HOU 34Q3, up 11puntpuntlean0.0
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 3 at NE 18Q3, up 4fggoconfident0.8
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 3 at NE 28Q4, up 4fggoconfident1.3
2020-11-22HOU v NE4th & 5 at HOU 30Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-26HOU v DET4th & 12 at HOU 44Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-26HOU v DET4th & 12 at HOU 35Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-11-26HOU v DET4th & 20 at DET 23Q2, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2020-11-26HOU v DET4th & goal at DET 8Q3, up 6fgfgconfident0.0
2020-11-26HOU v DET4th & 1 at HOU 37Q4, up 16puntgoconfident0.1
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 8 at HOU 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 7 at IND 34Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.5
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 7 at IND 34Q2, down 4fggouncertain-0.1
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 7 at HOU 19Q3, down 4puntpuntlean0.0
2020-12-06HOU v IND4th & 21 at HOU 29Q4, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 7 at CHI 46Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 1 at HOU 29Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.4
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 4 at HOU 31Q2, down 16puntgoconfident0.9
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 1 at CHI 41Q3, down 26gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & goal at CHI 1Q3, down 26gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 7 at CHI 45Q3, down 26gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-13HOU v CHI4th & 14 at HOU 17Q4, down 29puntpuntlean0.0
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & 8 at HOU 37Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & 5 at IND 47Q2, down 14puntgoconfident0.6
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & goal at IND 5Q2, down 7fggouncertain-0.2
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & 7 at IND 13Q3, down 7fggouncertain-0.0
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & 1 at HOU 43Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-20HOU v IND4th & 5 at IND 15Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 4 at HOU 31Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 1 at HOU 34Q1, down 7puntgoconfident4.1
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & goal at CIN 3Q1, down 7fggoconfident4.3
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 5 at CIN 42Q2, down 4puntgoconfident5.5
2020-12-27HOU v CIN4th & 4 at HOU 49Q2, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & 7 at HOU 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.8
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & goal at TEN 6Q1, down 3fggoconfident1.1
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & 17 at TEN 25Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & 8 at TEN 10Q2, down 11fgfguncertain0.0
2021-01-03HOU v TEN4th & 10 at TEN 33Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0