Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Steve Wilks

Head coach · ARI/CAR · 2018–2022

9–19Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions
Went for it %Model said
go %
Agrees with
model %
WP lost
per game
2022CAR6–68711.537.965.52.25
2018ARI3–1312512.046.457.61.88

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.145 (90% interval −0.226 to −0.057) over 212 decisions. Flagged better than expected (Benjamini–Hochberg, 50% false discovery rate).

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 19 at ATL 35Q2, up 3puntfgconfident3.7
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 1 at ARI 34Q3, down 10puntgoconfident2.7
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 42Q1, up 7puntgoconfident2.6
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 3 at SEA 4Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.5
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 4 at SF 45Q1, up 1puntgoconfident2.4
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 4 at CAR 31Q4, down 3puntgoconfident2.3
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 4 at CAR 44Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident2.2
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 16 at TB 41Q2, tiedpuntfgconfident2.1
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 6 at midfieldQ1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.9
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 42Q2, up 14puntgoconfident1.9
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & goal at DET 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.9
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 29Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.7
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 3 at WAS 41Q3, down 21puntgoconfident1.7
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 7 at SF 40Q1, up 1puntgoconfident1.6
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 5 at ARI 44Q3, down 3puntgoconfident1.5
Every graded 4th down (212)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 1 at ARI 40Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.9
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 7 at ARI 28Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 8 at ARI 27Q2, down 14puntpuntlean0.0
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 3 at WAS 41Q3, down 21puntgoconfident1.7
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & 11 at ARI 30Q3, down 21puntgoconfident0.4
2018-09-09ARI v WAS4th & goal at WAS 7Q4, down 18gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 3 at ARI 45Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident-0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 1 at ARI 16Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.9
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 13 at ARI 22Q2, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 15 at ARI 34Q2, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 1 at ARI 40Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.2
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 11 at ARI 15Q3, down 19puntgolean0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 10 at ARI 18Q3, down 27puntgoconfident0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 1 at ARI 24Q4, down 27puntgouncertain0.0
2018-09-16ARI v LA4th & 3 at ARI 39Q4, down 34gopuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23ARI v CHI4th & 5 at ARI 41Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23ARI v CHI4th & 9 at ARI 33Q2, up 14puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23ARI v CHI4th & 23 at ARI 12Q2, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23ARI v CHI4th & 15 at CHI 39Q2, up 11puntfgconfident1.3
2018-09-23ARI v CHI4th & 5 at CHI 45Q4, down 2gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 19 at ARI 9Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 3 at SEA 4Q2, down 7fggoconfident2.5
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 14 at ARI 11Q2, down 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 1 at ARI 39Q3, up 3puntgoconfident1.3
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 10 at ARI 25Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 11 at ARI 33Q4, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-30ARI v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 27Q4, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 7 at SF 40Q1, up 1puntgoconfident1.6
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 4 at SF 45Q1, up 1puntgoconfident2.4
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 9 at ARI 29Q2, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 3 at ARI 13Q2, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 3 at ARI 32Q3, up 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 9 at SF 39Q3, up 8puntfglean0.2
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 5 at SF 42Q4, up 8puntgolean0.5
2018-10-07ARI v SF4th & 7 at ARI 28Q4, up 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 3 at ARI 23Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.3
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 7 at MIN 8Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.6
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 14 at ARI 21Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & goal at MIN 1Q2, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 9 at midfieldQ2, down 7puntgolean0.2
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 2 at ARI 11Q2, tiedpuntgouncertain0.1
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 15 at ARI 2Q3, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 2 at MIN 32Q4, down 17gogouncertain0.0
2018-10-14ARI v MIN4th & 25 at ARI 42Q4, down 10puntgolean0.4
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 3 at ARI 23Q1, down 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 4 at DEN 25Q1, down 14fggolean0.5
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 8 at ARI 23Q2, down 18puntgouncertain-0.1
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 3 at ARI 44Q2, down 25puntgoconfident0.6
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 25 at ARI 23Q2, down 25puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 2 at ARI 19Q2, down 25puntgoconfident0.4
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 10 at ARI 25Q3, down 32puntgoconfident0.0
2018-10-18ARI v DEN4th & 16 at ARI 40Q4, down 35gopuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 11 at ARI 35Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 10 at SF 13Q2, down 2fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 20 at SF 46Q2, down 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 6 at ARI 29Q3, down 2puntpuntlean0.0
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 3 at ARI 31Q3, down 2puntgolean0.6
2018-10-28ARI v SF4th & 8 at ARI 38Q3, down 9puntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 8 at ARI 27Q1, down 3puntgoconfident0.2
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 8 at ARI 30Q2, down 6puntgolean0.0
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 29 at KC 49Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 1 at ARI 29Q3, down 6puntgoconfident0.2
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 20 at ARI 27Q4, down 12puntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 28 at ARI 47Q4, down 12gogolean0.0
2018-11-11ARI v KC4th & 4 at ARI 41Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 5 at ARI 34Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 30 at ARI 5Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 9 at ARI 12Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 14 at ARI 45Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 8 at ARI 37Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 6 at ARI 29Q4, down 6puntgoconfident1.4
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 9 at ARI 41Q4, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-18ARI v LV4th & 25 at ARI 41Q4, up 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 5 at LAC 12Q1, up 7fgfglean0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 20 at ARI 24Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 3 at LAC 28Q2, up 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 45Q2, down 11puntgoconfident0.2
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 7 at ARI 27Q3, down 25puntgoconfident0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 15 at ARI 18Q4, down 32puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 3 at ARI 37Q4, down 32puntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-25ARI v LAC4th & 6 at ARI 34Q4, down 35gopuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 7 at ARI 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 13 at GB 45Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 12 at ARI 9Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 13 at ARI 22Q3, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 2 at ARI 28Q3, down 3puntgolean0.3
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 9 at GB 26Q3, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 16 at ARI 31Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02ARI v GB4th & 3 at GB 26Q4, tiedfggolean0.4
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 16 at ARI 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 8 at ARI 27Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 6 at midfieldQ1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.3
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 16 at DET 36Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 17 at ARI 30Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 5 at ARI 44Q3, down 3puntgoconfident1.5
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 1 at ARI 34Q3, down 10puntgoconfident2.7
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & goal at DET 4Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.9
2018-12-09ARI v DET4th & 20 at DET 49Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 16 at ARI 35Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 10 at ARI 25Q2, down 10puntpuntlean0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 6 at ARI 45Q2, down 13puntgolean0.1
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 7 at ARI 38Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.3
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 9 at ARI 36Q3, down 19puntgoconfident0.1
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 23 at ARI 24Q3, down 26puntgouncertain0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 16 at ARI 19Q4, down 33puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 33Q4, down 33gopuntconfident0.0
2018-12-16ARI v ATL4th & goal at ATL 7Q4, down 33gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 8 at LA 18Q1, tiedfgfglean0.0
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 5 at ARI 30Q1, down 4puntgolean0.2
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 5 at LA 36Q2, down 12fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 9 at LA 45Q3, down 12puntgoconfident0.1
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 9 at ARI 26Q3, down 15puntgolean0.1
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 18 at ARI 48Q4, down 15puntgouncertain0.1
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 13 at ARI 22Q4, down 22puntpuntlean0.0
2018-12-23ARI v LA4th & 1 at LA 10Q4, down 22gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 1 at ARI 34Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 11 at SEA 17Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 1 at ARI 48Q1, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 9 at ARI 45Q2, down 11puntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 21 at SEA 32Q2, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 2 at ARI 27Q3, down 1puntgoconfident0.4
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 13 at SEA 48Q3, down 1puntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 1 at ARI 39Q3, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 16 at ARI 38Q3, down 8puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30ARI v SEA4th & 12 at SEA 37Q4, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 12 at LA 24Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 8 at LA 48Q1, up 3puntgouncertain0.5
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 6 at CAR 28Q2, up 3puntpuntlean0.0
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 1 at CAR 34Q2, down 4puntgoconfident0.8
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 6 at CAR 41Q3, up 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 3 at CAR 32Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 5 at CAR 25Q4, down 7puntgoconfident0.5
2022-10-16CAR v LA4th & 16 at CAR 35Q4, down 14puntgoconfident0.2
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 19Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.5
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 29Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.7
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 16 at TB 41Q2, tiedpuntfgconfident2.1
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 4 at CAR 31Q3, up 7puntgolean0.3
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 8 at CAR 22Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 8 at CAR 27Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-23CAR v TB4th & 9 at TB 38Q4, up 18puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 7 at CAR 44Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 5 at ATL 19Q1, tiedfggouncertain0.8
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 5 at CAR 24Q1, up 3puntpuntlean0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 24Q3, down 4fgfgconfident0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 10 at CAR 29Q3, down 1puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & goal at ATL 1Q4, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 17 at CAR 18Q4, down 3gogolean0.0
2022-10-30CAR v ATL4th & 4 at ATL 14QOT, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 4 at CAR 31Q1, down 7puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 8 at CAR 28Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 8 at CAR 27Q2, down 14puntgouncertain-0.1
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 4 at CAR 40Q2, down 28puntgoconfident0.1
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 7 at CIN 8Q3, down 35gogoconfident0.0
2022-11-06CAR v CIN4th & 4 at CAR 31Q3, down 35puntgolean0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 28Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 19 at ATL 35Q2, up 3puntfgconfident3.7
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 9 at ATL 31Q2, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 16 at CAR 19Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 4 at CAR 8Q3, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 8 at ATL 22Q4, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 40Q4, up 13puntpuntlean0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 7 at CAR 28Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-10CAR v ATL4th & 10 at ATL 19Q4, up 7fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 9 at CAR 44Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 5 at CAR 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 4 at CAR 23Q2, tiedpuntgouncertain-0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 18 at CAR 48Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 6 at CAR 35Q3, down 3puntpuntuncertain0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 9 at BAL 14Q3, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 9 at CAR 44Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-20CAR v BAL4th & 7 at CAR 43Q4, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 6 at CAR 44Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 18 at DEN 49Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 4 at DEN 24Q2, up 4fggouncertain0.5
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 2 at CAR 29Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 8 at CAR 19Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 2 at CAR 23Q3, up 14puntgouncertain0.2
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & goal at DEN 8Q4, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 18Q4, up 17fgfgconfident0.0
2022-11-27CAR v DEN4th & 1 at DEN 23Q4, up 13gogolean0.0
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 29Q1, tiedfggoconfident1.7
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 17 at CAR 18Q2, up 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 13 at SEA 14Q2, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 2 at CAR 33Q3, up 3puntgouncertain0.2
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 1 at SEA 5Q3, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & goal at SEA 3Q3, up 3gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-11CAR v SEA4th & 10 at SEA 21Q4, up 10fgfgconfident0.0
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & 2 at CAR 33Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & 8 at CAR 27Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & 19 at CAR 18Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & 2 at CAR 28Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.7
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & 9 at PIT 11Q4, down 14fgfguncertain0.0
2022-12-18CAR v PIT4th & goal at PIT 14Q4, down 11fgfgconfident0.0
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 6 at midfieldQ1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.9
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 1 at DET 26Q2, up 7gogoconfident0.0
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 7 at CAR 48Q3, up 24puntgouncertain0.0
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 7 at DET 22Q4, up 18fgfglean0.0
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 9 at DET 37Q4, up 21puntfgconfident0.0
2022-12-24CAR v DET4th & 7 at DET 18Q4, up 14fgfgconfident0.0
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 42Q1, up 7puntgoconfident2.6
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 10 at CAR 24Q1, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 3 at TB 36Q2, up 7gofgconfident0.9
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 1 at CAR 42Q2, up 14puntgoconfident1.9
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 18 at CAR 30Q2, up 4gopuntuncertain-0.0
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 10 at CAR 37Q4, up 5puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-01CAR v TB4th & 4 at CAR 31Q4, down 3puntgoconfident2.3
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 7 at CAR 41Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 1 at CAR 22Q1, down 7puntgoconfident0.6
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 9 at CAR 35Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 2 at CAR 28Q3, tiedpuntgolean1.1
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 4 at CAR 44Q4, tiedpuntgoconfident2.2
2023-01-08CAR v NO4th & 11 at CAR 40Q4, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0