Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Urban Meyer

Head coach · JAX · 2021–2021

2–11Regular season
0–0Playoffs
1Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2021JAX2–119824.564.354.14.54

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: +0.115 (90% interval −0.079 to +0.324) over 98 decisions. Too few decisions to test.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 8 at MIA 44Q4, tiedgofgconfident9.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & goal at BUF 3Q4, tiedfggoconfident7.7
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at MIA 36Q4, down 3fggoconfident5.1
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 4 at midfieldQ4, tiedpuntgoconfident4.3
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 1 at ATL 41Q2, down 11gofgconfident2.8
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at JAX 32Q4, down 3puntgoconfident2.1
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & goal at ATL 3Q2, down 14fggoconfident2.1
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 3 at JAX 46Q3, down 11puntgoconfident2.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at MIA 22Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.8
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 1 at JAX 30Q2, down 7puntgoconfident1.7
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 49Q2, down 11puntgoconfident1.6
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 3 at JAX 32Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.5
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 19Q3, down 20puntgoconfident1.3
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 6 at LA 42Q2, down 6puntgoconfident1.3
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 6 at JAX 29Q4, down 5puntgoconfident1.1
Every graded 4th down (98)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 29Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.3
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 5 at HOU 37Q1, down 7fgfglean0.0
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 10 at JAX 25Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 5 at JAX 30Q3, down 20puntgoconfident1.0
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 2 at JAX 19Q3, down 20puntgoconfident1.3
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 3 at JAX 28Q4, down 20puntgoconfident0.6
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 10 at JAX 40Q4, down 23gogoconfident0.0
2021-09-12JAX v HOU4th & 18 at JAX 31Q4, down 23puntgoconfident0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 12 at JAX 23Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 16 at DEN 34Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 3 at JAX 21Q2, up 4puntgoconfident1.1
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 5 at DEN 40Q2, down 3gogoconfident0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 10 at DEN 30Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 10 at JAX 25Q3, down 10puntpuntlean0.0
2021-09-19JAX v DEN4th & 9 at JAX 26Q3, down 13puntgoconfident0.6
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 3 at JAX 32Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.5
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 5 at JAX 28Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident0.8
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 7 at ARI 45Q1, down 7puntgoconfident1.1
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 1 at JAX 30Q2, down 7puntgoconfident1.7
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 4 at JAX 28Q3, up 6puntgouncertain0.1
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 6 at JAX 29Q4, down 5puntgoconfident1.1
2021-09-26JAX v ARI4th & 4 at midfieldQ4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 8 at JAX 49Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.1
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 7 at JAX 30Q2, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & goal at CIN 1Q2, up 14gogoconfident0.0
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 7 at JAX 28Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 2 at CIN 38Q3, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2021-09-30JAX v CIN4th & 4 at midfieldQ4, tiedpuntgoconfident4.3
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & 9 at JAX 37Q1, down 1puntpuntlean0.0
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & goal at TEN 1Q2, down 8gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & 8 at TEN 34Q2, down 8fggoconfident0.7
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & 14 at JAX 14Q3, down 18puntpuntuncertain0.0
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & goal at TEN 1Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-10JAX v TEN4th & 4 at JAX 39Q4, down 12gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at MIA 22Q1, down 7fggoconfident1.8
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 15 at JAX 20Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 12 at JAX 11Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 15 at MIA 40Q2, down 10puntgouncertain0.4
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 6 at MIA 35Q2, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 1 at MIA 9Q4, up 4gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at JAX 32Q4, down 3puntgoconfident2.1
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 5 at MIA 36Q4, down 3fggoconfident5.1
2021-10-17JAX v MIA4th & 8 at MIA 44Q4, tiedgofgconfident9.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 20 at SEA 49Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 2 at JAX 24Q1, down 7puntgolean0.1
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 39Q2, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 3 at SEA 38Q3, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 2 at JAX 16Q3, down 24puntgoconfident0.1
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 10 at SEA 48Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 16 at JAX 28Q4, down 24puntgouncertain0.0
2021-10-31JAX v SEA4th & 5 at SEA 9Q4, down 24gogolean0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 2 at BUF 43Q1, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 11 at BUF 21Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 17 at JAX 18Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 5 at BUF 37Q2, down 3fggoconfident1.1
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 7 at BUF 24Q3, tiedfgfglean0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 1 at BUF 11Q4, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & goal at BUF 3Q4, tiedfggoconfident7.7
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 7 at JAX 23Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 10 at JAX 47Q4, up 3puntpuntlean0.0
2021-11-07JAX v BUF4th & 9 at JAX 49Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 9 at JAX 24Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 8 at JAX 11Q1, down 10puntpuntlean0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 7 at JAX 41Q2, down 11puntgoconfident0.3
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 3 at JAX 44Q2, down 11puntgoconfident1.1
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 49Q2, down 11puntgoconfident1.6
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 2 at JAX 33Q2, down 14puntgoconfident0.5
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 2 at IND 38Q2, down 14fgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 9 at IND 32Q3, down 11fgfguncertain0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 16 at JAX 37Q3, down 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-14JAX v IND4th & 9 at JAX 24Q4, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 5 at JAX 30Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 6 at SF 12Q2, down 17fgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 10 at JAX 25Q3, down 17puntgouncertain0.1
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 12 at JAX 40Q3, down 24puntgoconfident0.0
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 1 at JAX 49Q4, down 24gogoconfident0.0
2021-11-21JAX v SF4th & 31 at JAX 46Q4, down 24puntgouncertain0.0
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 10 at JAX 37Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & goal at ATL 3Q2, down 14fggoconfident2.1
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 1 at ATL 41Q2, down 11gofgconfident2.8
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 3 at JAX 46Q3, down 11puntgoconfident2.0
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 3 at JAX 32Q3, down 18puntgoconfident0.9
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & goal at ATL 16Q4, down 10fgfgconfident0.0
2021-11-28JAX v ATL4th & 10 at JAX 29Q4, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 4 at JAX 31Q1, down 10puntgouncertain0.1
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 2 at LA 36Q1, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 12 at JAX 38Q2, down 6puntpuntlean0.0
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 6 at LA 42Q2, down 6puntgoconfident1.3
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 5 at JAX 30Q3, down 9puntgoconfident0.4
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 1 at LA 37Q3, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-05JAX v LA4th & 12 at LA 49Q4, down 30puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 19 at JAX 29Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 6 at TEN 44Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.8
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 5 at JAX 45Q2, down 10puntgoconfident0.7
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 5 at JAX 27Q3, down 10puntgoconfident0.5
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 10 at JAX 41Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 24 at JAX 39Q4, down 17puntgoconfident0.1
2021-12-12JAX v TEN4th & 8 at JAX 27Q4, down 20gopuntlean0.0