Red Zone Math

Coaches › Head coach

Vance Joseph

Head coach · DEN · 2017–2018

11–21Regular season
0–0Playoffs
2Seasons

Season by season

4th-down columns from 2018 (every go, field-goal and punt call graded by our model).

SeasonTeamRecordPlayoffs4th-down
decisions		Went for it %Model said
go %		Agrees with
model %		WP lost
per game
2018DEN6–1013018.548.566.23.86
2017DEN5–11–––––

4th-down rating

WP lost per decision against other coaches in the same situations: −0.068 (90% interval −0.172 to +0.049) over 130 decisions. Not separable from average.

How every coach compares

Biggest disagreements with the model

Where the coach’s call cost the most win probability by our model, among calls the model disagreed with.

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 7 at LAC 45Q4, down 2puntgoconfident6.3
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 6 at CLE 11Q4, down 4fggoconfident5.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 16 at LAC 38Q1, tiedpuntfgconfident3.8
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at KC 24Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.7
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at KC 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.4
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 4 at LA 10Q1, down 6fggoconfident2.2
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 1 at DEN 27Q1, down 3puntgoconfident2.2
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 2 at DEN 33Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 4 at LV 48Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 1 at DEN 34Q1, down 3puntgoconfident2.1
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 1 at DEN 34Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 1 at DEN 34Q2, down 3puntgoconfident2.0
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 5 at LA 6Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.9
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 6 at NYJ 46Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.9
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 4 at LAC 46Q3, down 4puntgoconfident1.8
Every graded 4th down (130)

Every graded 4th down

DateGameSituationCallModelWP lost
(pts)
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 6 at DEN 39Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 3 at DEN 43Q1, tiedpuntgouncertain0.1
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 6 at SEA 33Q2, up 4fgfgconfident0.0
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 11 at DEN 30Q3, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 5 at DEN 37Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 10 at SEA 35Q3, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 2 at DEN 33Q4, up 3puntgolean0.9
2018-09-09DEN v SEA4th & 5 at SEA 39Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 5 at DEN 30Q1, down 3puntpuntlean0.0
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 1 at DEN 34Q1, down 3puntgoconfident2.1
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 1 at DEN 27Q1, down 3puntgoconfident2.2
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 12 at DEN 34Q2, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & 7 at LV 21Q3, down 12fgfglean0.0
2018-09-16DEN v LV4th & goal at LV 1Q4, down 9gogoconfident0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 9 at DEN 38Q1, up 4puntpuntlean0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 7 at DEN 11Q2, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 1 at DEN 34Q2, down 3puntgoconfident2.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 28 at DEN 48Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 10 at DEN 15Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 10 at DEN 34Q3, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 17 at BAL 42Q3, down 13puntfgconfident0.9
2018-09-23DEN v BAL4th & 6 at BAL 11Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at KC 24Q1, tiedfggoconfident2.7
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 8 at DEN 27Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at KC 48Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.4
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 1 at KC 24Q2, tiedgogoconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 5 at KC 16Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 4 at KC 28Q4, up 7fgfguncertain0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 10 at DEN 25Q4, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 11 at DEN 24Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-01DEN v KC4th & 10 at KC 28Q4, down 4gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 6 at NYJ 46Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.9
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 12 at NYJ 43Q2, up 7puntfglean0.4
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 17 at DEN 32Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 18 at DEN 17Q2, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & goal at NYJ 12Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 13 at DEN 46Q2, down 11puntpuntlean0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 17 at NYJ 49Q3, down 11puntpuntlean0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 5 at DEN 30Q3, down 14puntgoconfident0.4
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 10 at DEN 5Q3, down 14puntpuntlean0.0
2018-10-07DEN v NYJ4th & 3 at NYJ 6Q4, down 17gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 7 at DEN 28Q1, tiedpuntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 1 at DEN 47Q1, down 3puntgoconfident1.3
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 4 at LA 10Q1, down 6fggoconfident2.2
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 19 at LA 44Q2, down 10puntfglean0.2
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 3 at LA 39Q2, down 10gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 21 at DEN 36Q3, down 10puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-14DEN v LA4th & 5 at LA 6Q4, down 10fggoconfident1.9
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 1 at DEN 34Q1, up 11puntgoconfident1.0
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 8 at DEN 23Q2, up 25puntpuntlean0.0
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 5 at DEN 48Q2, up 25puntgolean0.1
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 5 at DEN 26Q3, up 25puntgoconfident0.1
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 1 at DEN 44Q4, up 32puntgolean0.0
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 2 at DEN 28Q4, up 32puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-18DEN v ARI4th & 21 at ARI 23Q4, up 32fgfguncertain0.0
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 2 at DEN 33Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.1
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 8 at KC 37Q2, up 4fggouncertain-0.2
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 20 at DEN 39Q2, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 19 at DEN 10Q3, down 9puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & goal at KC 4Q4, down 16gogoconfident0.0
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 4 at DEN 18Q4, down 10puntgoconfident1.1
2018-10-28DEN v KC4th & 8 at KC 18Q4, down 10fggoconfident0.6
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 9 at DEN 26Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 8 at HOU 26Q1, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 2 at DEN 33Q2, down 10puntgoconfident1.1
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 9 at HOU 44Q2, down 3fgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 2 at DEN 33Q3, down 6puntgoconfident1.7
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 15 at DEN 20Q4, down 2puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 17 at HOU 47Q4, down 2puntpuntuncertain0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 1 at DEN 40Q4, down 2gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-04DEN v HOU4th & 8 at DEN 45Q4, down 2gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 1 at DEN 34Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident2.0
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 2 at DEN 32Q1, down 3puntgoconfident0.9
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 16Q2, up 1gogoconfident0.0
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 8 at LAC 45Q2, down 6puntgoconfident0.7
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 2 at DEN 33Q3, down 12puntgoconfident0.5
2018-11-18DEN v LAC4th & 7 at LAC 45Q4, down 2puntgoconfident6.3
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 5 at DEN 30Q1, tiedpuntpuntlean0.0
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 15 at PIT 23Q1, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 13 at DEN 42Q2, up 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 4 at DEN 47Q3, tiedpuntgoconfident1.6
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 8 at DEN 27Q3, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 8 at DEN 12Q3, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-11-25DEN v PIT4th & 11 at DEN 15Q4, up 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 6 at CIN 43Q1, tiedpuntgoconfident1.2
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 5 at DEN 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 3 at DEN 27Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 8 at CIN 32Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 8 at DEN 20Q3, up 4puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 14 at CIN 49Q4, up 11puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 12 at CIN 38Q4, up 11puntfguncertain0.1
2018-12-02DEN v CIN4th & 3 at CIN 11Q4, up 11fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 9 at DEN 21Q1, down 3puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 2 at DEN 39Q1, down 3puntgoconfident1.1
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 13 at midfieldQ2, down 6puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 22 at DEN 45Q2, down 13puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 3 at DEN 33Q2, down 13puntgoconfident0.7
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 16 at DEN 21Q3, down 20puntpuntlean0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 1 at SF 33Q3, down 20gogouncertain0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 2 at SF 22Q3, down 20gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 3 at DEN 44Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 3 at SF 22Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 7 at SF 24Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & 1 at SF 6Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-09DEN v SF4th & goal at SF 1Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 23 at DEN 12Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 9 at DEN 26Q1, down 7puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 9 at CLE 26Q2, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 6 at DEN 17Q2, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 8 at CLE 24Q3, tiedfgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 6 at CLE 11Q4, down 4fggoconfident5.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 2 at DEN 35Q4, down 1gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-15DEN v CLE4th & 10 at midfieldQ4, down 1gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 12 at DEN 34Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 4 at LV 48Q1, down 7puntgoconfident2.1
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 6 at DEN 45Q1, down 7puntgouncertain0.6
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 1 at DEN 46Q1, down 7gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 8 at LV 45Q2, down 7puntgoconfident0.9
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 3 at DEN 46Q2, down 14puntgoconfident1.5
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 12 at DEN 25Q3, down 17puntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-24DEN v LV4th & 19 at DEN 9Q4, down 13gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 7 at DEN 47Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 6 at DEN 24Q1, tiedpuntpuntconfident0.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 16 at LAC 38Q1, tiedpuntfgconfident3.8
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 6 at LAC 44Q2, tiedpuntgolean1.4
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & goal at LAC 10Q2, down 7fgfgconfident0.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 4 at LAC 46Q3, down 4puntgoconfident1.8
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 9 at LAC 47Q4, down 11puntgoconfident0.4
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 1 at LAC 38Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0
2018-12-30DEN v LAC4th & 11 at LAC 31Q4, down 14gogoconfident0.0