DEN 17, NE 7
2006 week 3 · 2006-09-24 · Gillette Stadium · Line: NE −6.5
DEN: Mike Shanahan · NE: Bill Belichick
Win probability
Our model’s win probability for the home team after every snap, kickoff and try (dashed: nflfastR’s, for reference). Dots are 4th-down calls. Hover or tap for details.
Our modelnflfastRGo for itField goal
PuntFilled: the coach agreed with the model · hollow: disagreed
4th-down decisions
The coach’s call against our 4th-down model. WP: the team’s win probability with each option (best in bold). WP lost: the best option minus the call, in WP points. Confidence: the share of the model’s 101 bootstrap replicates that agree.
Biggest swings
The plays that moved win probability most (our model; a touchdown includes the expected try).
Top players by WPA
Dropbacks, designed runs and targets; WPA in WP points.
Team summary
Scrimmage plays (dropbacks and designed runs).