LAC 10, PIT 11
2008 week 11 · 2008-11-16 · Heinz Field · Line: PIT −4.5
LAC: Norv Turner · PIT: Mike Tomlin
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the San Diego Chargers 11–10.
Win probability
Our model’s win probability for the home team after every snap, kickoff and try (dashed: nflfastR’s, for reference). Dots are 4th-down calls. Hover or tap for details.
4th-down decisions
The coach’s call against our 4th-down model. WP: the team’s win probability with each option from our main model, the same one as the chart (best in bold). WP lost: the model’s call minus the coach’s, in WP points. Confidence: the share of the model’s 101 bootstrap replicates that agree.
4th downs are graded from 2018 on.
Biggest swings
The plays that moved win probability most (our model; a touchdown includes the expected try).
| Time | Team | Play | WPA (WP pts) | PIT WP after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:33 | LAC | (1:33) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 86-B.Manumaleuna INTERCEPTED by 92-J.Harrison at PIT 10. 92-J.Harrison to PIT 43 for 33 yards (73-M.McNeill). | −18.4 | 53.4% |
| Q4 3:14 | PIT | (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 86-H.Ward to LAC 34 for 7 yards (27-P.Oliver, 54-S.Cooper). | +11.6 | 62.3% |
| Q4 8:09 | LAC | (8:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 83-V.Jackson to PIT 6 for 17 yards (24-I.Taylor). | +11.5 | 37.1% |
| Q3 4:26 | LAC | (4:26) (Field Goal formation) 10-N.Kaeding 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres. | −11.2 | 69.1% |
| Q4 2:31 | PIT | (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-S.Holmes to LAC 21 for 13 yards (31-A.Cromartie). | +11.0 | 73.4% |
| Q3 7:49 | LAC | (7:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 21-L.Tomlinson pushed ob at PIT 42 for 26 yards (43-T.Polamalu). | +9.3 | 55.7% |
| Q4 13:28 | LAC | (13:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 80-M.Floyd to LAC 34 for 15 yards (31-F.Bryant). | +9.2 | 57.8% |
| Q1 13:09 | LAC | (13:09) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 83-V.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Polamalu (24-I.Taylor) at PIT 37. 43-T.Polamalu to LAC 42 for 21 yards (61-N.H | −9.2 | 71.6% |
Top players by WPA
Dropbacks, designed runs and targets; WPA in WP points.
| Team | Player | Pos | Plays | EPA | WPA (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 45 | +4.8 | +41.4 |
| PIT | Hines Ward | WR | 12 | +8.5 | +35.2 |
| PIT | Santonio Holmes | WR | 9 | 0.0 | +17.8 |
| PIT | Matt Spaeth | TE | 7 | +3.6 | +9.1 |
| LAC | Malcom Floyd | WR | 2 | +2.9 | +11.6 |
| LAC | Legedu Naanee | WR | 1 | +0.6 | +2.0 |
| LAC | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | 22 | +2.7 | +1.1 |
| LAC | Darren Sproles | RB | 2 | +0.4 | +1.0 |