David Nelson

WR · BUF/NYJ · 2010–2014

Born November 7, 1986 · College Florida · Undrafted · 6-5, 215 lb

EPA per target by season

Filled dot: stabilised, with its 90% interval. Ring: the raw season rate.

Season	Team	G	Targets	Rec	Yds	TD	Catch %	EPA/target	Stabilised EPA/target	Target share %	aDOT	Rec EPA	Rec WPA (wins)
2010	BUF	14	47	31	353	3	66.0	+0.337	+0.158−0.014 to +0.331	10.2	10.5	+15.8	+0.59
2011	BUF	16	98	61	658	5	62.2	−0.018	+0.128−0.028 to +0.285	17.3	8.5	−1.8	+0.93
2012	BUF	1	5	2	31	0	40.0	−1.752	−0.090−0.280 to +0.099	15.6	8.0	−8.8	−0.12
2013	NYJ	12	61	36	423	2	59.0	−0.065	+0.099−0.069 to +0.266	17.8	11.2	−3.9	+0.37
2014	NYJ	6	16	8	65	0	50.0	−0.450	−0.025−0.210 to +0.160	8.2	11.7	−7.2	−0.16
Career	NYJ	49	227	138	1,530	10	60.8	−0.026		14.2	9.9	−5.9	+1.62

Counting stats from the play-by-play credits (QB hits from 2006, tackles for loss and passes defensed from 2009).

Season	Team	G	Tackles
2010	BUF	14	1
2011	BUF	16	4
2013	NYJ	12	2
2014	NYJ	6	1
Career	NYJ	49	8

2014 game log (6 games)

Week	Date	Opponent	Result	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec EPA	Tackles
1	2014-09-07	vs LV	W 19–14	1	1	17	+0.9	0
2	2014-09-14	@ GB	L 24–31	1	1	6	+2.0	0
3	2014-09-22	vs CHI	L 19–27	7	3	15	−5.9	0
4	2014-09-28	vs DET	L 17–24	1	1	7	−0.1	0
5	2014-10-05	@ LAC	L 0–31	4	1	9	−3.1	1
7	2014-10-16	@ NE	L 25–27	2	1	11	−1.0	0

2013 game log (12 games)

Week	Date	Opponent	Result	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Rec EPA	Tackles
5	2013-10-07	@ ATL	W 30–28	2	2	9	0	−1.2	0
6	2013-10-13	vs PIT	L 6–19	1	1	11	0	+0.8	0
7	2013-10-20	vs NE	W 30–27 OT	7	4	80	0	−6.2	0
8	2013-10-27	@ CIN	L 9–49	12	8	80	0	−8.1	0
9	2013-11-03	vs NO	W 26–20	3	1	19	0	−0.7	0
11	2013-11-17	@ BUF	L 14–37	3	1	12	0	−1.2	0
12	2013-11-24	@ BAL	L 3–19	5	0	0	0	−4.3	1
13	2013-12-01	vs MIA	L 3–23	8	3	37	0	−0.8	1
14	2013-12-08	vs LV	W 37–27	4	4	32	0	+2.3	0
15	2013-12-15	@ CAR	L 20–30	4	3	44	0	+4.1	0
16	2013-12-22	vs CLE	W 24–13	5	4	33	2	+7.4	0
17	2013-12-29	@ MIA	W 20–7	7	5	66	0	+3.8	0

2012 game log (1 games)

Week	Date	Opponent	Result	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Rec EPA
1	2012-09-09	@ NYJ	L 28–48	5	2	31	0	−8.8

2011 game log (16 games)

Week	Date	Opponent	Result	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Rec EPA	Tackles
1	2011-09-11	@ KC	W 41–7	6	4	66	0	+2.8	0
2	2011-09-18	vs LV	W 38–35	13	10	83	1	+5.5	0
3	2011-09-25	vs NE	W 34–31	8	6	84	0	+2.1	0
4	2011-10-02	@ CIN	L 20–23	3	2	18	0	+0.6	0
5	2011-10-09	vs PHI	W 31–24	2	1	6	1	+1.1	0
6	2011-10-16	@ NYG	L 24–27	6	4	62	0	+5.6	0
8	2011-10-30	vs WAS	W 23–0	5	4	47	0	+1.0	0
9	2011-11-06	vs NYJ	L 11–27	7	4	36	1	−1.0	1
10	2011-11-13	@ DAL	L 7–44	6	4	31	1	+3.7	0
11	2011-11-20	@ MIA	L 8–35	4	1	0	0	−8.2	1
12	2011-11-27	@ NYJ	L 24–28	8	5	47	1	+1.5	0
13	2011-12-04	vs TEN	L 17–23	8	3	34	0	−0.0	1
14	2011-12-11	@ LAC	L 10–37	6	2	20	0	−11.2	0
15	2011-12-18	vs MIA	L 23–30	7	6	60	0	+1.4	0
16	2011-12-24	vs DEN	W 40–14	5	3	41	0	+0.3	0
17	2012-01-01	@ NE	L 21–49	4	2	23	0	−7.0	1

2010 game log (14 games)

Week	Date	Opponent	Result	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Rec EPA	Tackles
1	2010-09-12	vs MIA	L 10–15	6	3	22	0	+0.7	0
2	2010-09-19	@ GB	L 7–34	1	0	0	0	−1.1	0
3	2010-09-26	@ NE	L 30–38	2	0	0	0	−3.0	1
4	2010-10-03	vs NYJ	L 14–38	4	4	75	0	+4.0	0
5	2010-10-10	vs JAX	L 26–36	3	3	23	0	+0.3	0
7	2010-10-24	@ BAL	L 34–37 OT	4	2	25	0	−3.7	0
8	2010-10-31	@ KC	L 10–13 OT	5	3	25	0	+0.8	0
9	2010-11-07	vs CHI	L 19–22	5	2	19	0	+2.4	0
11	2010-11-21	@ CIN	W 49–31	1	0	0	0	−0.4	0
12	2010-11-28	vs PIT	L 16–19 OT	7	6	58	0	+1.2	0
13	2010-12-05	@ MIN	L 14–38	4	4	34	1	+4.3	0
14	2010-12-12	vs CLE	W 13–6	1	1	11	1	+3.1	0
15	2010-12-19	@ MIA	W 17–14	3	3	61	1	+7.7	0
16	2010-12-26	vs NE	L 3–34	1	0	0	0	−0.5	0