Playoff odds › NFC West
Arizona Cardinals playoff chances
3–6 · 4th in the NFC West · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (15th in the NFC) · rating −4.6 (28th of 32)
The Arizona Cardinals have a 1% chance to make the playoffs and less than a 1% chance to win the NFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind TB in the NFC order (conference record); behind ATL in the NFC order (conference record).
How the Cardinals’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 11% | 2% |
| After week 1 | 16% | 4% |
| After week 2 | 12% | 2% |
| After week 3 | 12% | 2% |
| After week 4 | 8% | 1% |
| After week 5 | 2% | <1% |
| After week 6 | 5% | <1% |
| After week 7 | 2% | <1% |
| After week 8 | 5% | 1% |
| After week 9 | 1% | <1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 1% | <1% |
Where the Cardinals could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Cardinals need to make the playoffs?
How the Cardinals’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 9 wins or fewer (98% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Cardinals need?
How often the Cardinals finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1% | 38% | 1% |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | <1% |
| 8 | 12% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 20% | <1% | <1% |
| 6½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 5½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
The Cardinals’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs LAweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · LA by 9.5 | 20% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at KCweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · KC by 14 | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs WASweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 43% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs PHIweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 57% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs NYJweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 58% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at NOweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 37% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs LVweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 52% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs SFweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 33% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Who should Cardinals fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Cardinals’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
No other game this week moves the Cardinals’ chances by a point or more.
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Cardinals finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 2% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 1%. Decided by a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%).
- The division title: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
Arizona Cardinals: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work