Playoff odds › NFC South
Atlanta Falcons playoff chances
3–6 · 4th in the NFC South · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (14th in the NFC) · rating −1.6 (19th of 32)
The Atlanta Falcons have an 18% chance to make the playoffs and a 17% chance to win the NFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind TB in the NFC South (head-to-head); ahead of ARI in the NFC order (conference record).
How the Falcons’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 42% | 29% |
| After week 1 | 27% | 22% |
| After week 2 | 6% | 4% |
| After week 3 | 19% | 15% |
| After week 4 | 42% | 34% |
| After week 5 | 40% | 33% |
| After week 6 | 22% | 15% |
| After week 7 | 38% | 33% |
| After week 8 | 21% | 18% |
| After week 9 | 18% | 18% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 18% | 17% |
Where the Falcons could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Falcons need to make the playoffs?
How the Falcons’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10 wins or more (4% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 9 wins (9% of the seasons): in 74%. Help that matters most then: DET over TB (week 11): 81% if so, 66% if not; BAL over TB (week 14): 83% if so, 71% if not.
- 8 wins (17% of the seasons): in 31%. Help that matters most then: DET over TB (week 11): 38% if so, 22% if not; LAC over TB (week 13): 43% if so, 27% if not.
- 7 wins (22% of the seasons): in 7%. Help that matters most then: LAC over TB (week 13): 11% if so, 5% if not; DET over TB (week 11): 8% if so, 3% if not.
- 6½ wins or fewer (46% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Falcons need?
How often the Falcons finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 10 | 3% | 99% | 92% |
| 9 | 9% | 74% | 68% |
| 8 | 17% | 31% | 31% |
| 7½ | 1% | 17% | 17% |
| 7 | 22% | 7% | 7% |
| 6½ | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 5½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 15% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Falcons’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs KCweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · KC by 3 | 39% | 28% | 12% | 26% | 12% |
| at MINweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 41% | 27% | 11% | 26% | 11% |
| vs DETweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 27% | 12% | 25% | 11% |
| at CLEweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 51% | 25% | 11% | 23% | 10% |
| at WASweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 44% | 25% | 12% | 24% | 12% |
| vs TBweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 48% | 29% | 7% | 28% | 6% |
| vs NOweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 57% | 26% | 7% | 25% | 6% |
| at CARweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 47% | 27% | 9% | 26% | 8% |
Who should Falcons fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Falcons’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| NO over CAR (home) | 19% | 17% | 18% | 16% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Falcons, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over TBweek 11 | 20% | 15% | 20% | 13% |
| LAC over TBweek 13 | 22% | 16% | 22% | 15% |
| BAL over TBweek 14 | 21% | 16% | 20% | 15% |
| LA over TBweek 17 | 20% | 16% | 19% | 15% |
| MIN over CARweek 13 | 20% | 16% | 19% | 15% |
| PIT over CARweek 16 | 20% | 15% | 19% | 15% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Falcons finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 8%. Decided by head-to-head (7%), division record (3%), record in common games (1%), conference record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 8%. Decided by head-to-head (7%), division record (4%), record in common games (1%).
Atlanta Falcons: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work