Playoff odds › AFC North
Baltimore Ravens playoff chances
4–5 · 4th in the AFC North · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (10th in the AFC) · rating −2.5 (23rd of 32)
The Baltimore Ravens have a 10% chance to make the playoffs and a 1% chance to win the AFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind LV in the AFC order (conference record).
Adjusted for a quarterback on the reserve list: −0.6 points a game, from two weeks ahead on (the market’s posted lines already include it).
How the Ravens’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 64% | 42% |
| After week 1 | 78% | 48% |
| After week 2 | 68% | 33% |
| After week 3 | 71% | 41% |
| After week 4 | 73% | 46% |
| After week 5 | 70% | 41% |
| After week 6 | 51% | 25% |
| After week 7 | 31% | 6% |
| After week 8 | 17% | 3% |
| After week 9 | 9% | 1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 10% | 1% |
Where the Ravens could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Ravens need to make the playoffs?
How the Ravens’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (2% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (6% of the seasons): in 73%. Help that matters most then: MIN over NE (week 14): 79% if so, 66% if not; LAC over NE (week 12): 80% if so, 67% if not.
- 9 wins (13% of the seasons): in 20%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 28% if so, 16% if not; MIN over NE (week 14): 26% if so, 15% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (77% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Ravens need?
How often the Ravens finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | 99% | 26% |
| 10 | 6% | 73% | 5% |
| 9 | 13% | 20% | <1% |
| 8 | 21% | 1% | <1% |
| 7½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 24% | <1% | <1% |
| 6½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Ravens’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs LACweek 10 · Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM · BAL by 4.5 | 66% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| at CARweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · CAR by 1.5 | 45% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| at HOUweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 25% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| vs TBweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 46% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| at PITweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 30% | 19% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| vs CLEweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 55% | 13% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| at CINweek 17 · Thu Dec 31, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 23% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| vs PITweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 15% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
Who should Ravens fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Ravens’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 10% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
| CIN over PIT (home) | 10% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Ravens, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| LAC over NEweek 12 | 11% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
| MIN over NEweek 14 | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| NYJ over NEweek 16 | 11% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
| BUF over NEweek 13 | 10% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| JAX over PITweek 14 | 10% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| MIA over NEweek 18 | 11% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Ravens finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 10% of the seasons: won 2%, lost 8%. Decided by conference record (4%), head-to-head (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (2%), division record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 1% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 1%.
Baltimore Ravens: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work