Playoff odds › AFC East
Buffalo Bills playoff chances
7–1 · 1st in the AFC East · the No. 1 seed if the season ended today · rating +5.5 (2nd of 32)
The Buffalo Bills have a 99% chance to make the playoffs and a 93% chance to win the AFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Bills’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 68% | 41% |
| After week 1 | 79% | 52% |
| After week 2 | 87% | 59% |
| After week 3 | 90% | 75% |
| After week 4 | 86% | 64% |
| After week 5 | 87% | 61% |
| After week 6 | 90% | 62% |
| After week 7 | 91% | 73% |
| After week 8 | 96% | 76% |
| After week 9 | 99% | 93% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 99% | 93% |
Where the Bills could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Bills need to make the playoffs?
How the Bills’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (94% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (4% of the seasons): in 92%. Help that matters most then: DET over NE (week 10): 95% if so, 89% if not.
How many wins do the Bills need?
How often the Bills finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 5% | >99% | >99% |
| 15 | 16% | >99% | >99% |
| 14½ | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 24% | >99% | >99% |
| 13½ | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 13 | 23% | >99% | 99% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 99% |
| 12 | 16% | >99% | 90% |
| 11 | 9% | >99% | 73% |
| 10 | 4% | 92% | 47% |
| 9 | 1% | 60% | 25% |
The Bills’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at NYJweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · BUF by 8.5 | 77% | >99% | 97% | 95% | 85% |
| vs MIAweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · BUF by 16.5 | 93% | 99% | 96% | 94% | 82% |
| vs KCweek 12 · Thu Nov 26, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 63% | >99% | 98% | 96% | 88% |
| at NEweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 62% | >99% | 98% | 99% | 85% |
| at GBweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 56% | >99% | 98% | 96% | 89% |
| vs CHIweek 15 · Sat Dec 19, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 60% | >99% | 98% | 96% | 89% |
| at DENweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 4:30 PM · no line yet | 53% | >99% | 98% | 96% | 90% |
| at MIAweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 79% | >99% | 98% | 94% | 88% |
| vs NYJweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 80% | >99% | 98% | 94% | 87% |
Who should Bills fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Bills’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 99% | 99% | 96% | 88% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Bills, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| KC over NEweek 15 | 99% | 99% | 95% | 89% |
| LAC over NEweek 12 | 99% | 99% | 97% | 91% |
| DEN over NEweek 17 | 99% | 99% | 96% | 90% |
| MIN over NEweek 14 | 99% | 99% | 96% | 91% |
| NYJ over NEweek 16 | 99% | 99% | 96% | 91% |
| MIA over NEweek 18 | 99% | 99% | 96% | 92% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Bills finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 1% of the seasons: won 1%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 4% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 4%. Decided by head-to-head (4%).
Buffalo Bills: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work