Playoff odds › NFC North
Chicago Bears playoff chances
7–2 · 1st in the NFC North · the No. 2 seed if the season ended today · rating +4.0 (6th of 32)
The Chicago Bears have an 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 34% chance to win the NFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Bears’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 43% | 20% |
| After week 1 | 62% | 30% |
| After week 2 | 59% | 25% |
| After week 3 | 69% | 26% |
| After week 4 | 61% | 25% |
| After week 5 | 39% | 8% |
| After week 6 | 56% | 12% |
| After week 7 | 63% | 15% |
| After week 8 | 83% | 29% |
| After week 9 | 85% | 34% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 85% | 34% |
Where the Bears could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Bears need to make the playoffs?
How the Bears’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (76% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (14% of the seasons): in 63%. Help that matters most then: MIA over GB (week 15): 72% if so, 60% if not; PHI over SEA (week 15): 71% if so, 60% if not.
- 9 wins (7% of the seasons): in 16%. Help that matters most then: ARI over LA (week 10): 24% if so, 15% if not; LV over SEA (week 10): 23% if so, 15% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (2% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Bears need?
How often the Bears finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 9% | >99% | 96% |
| 13 | 18% | >99% | 75% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 64% |
| 12 | 24% | >99% | 33% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 22% |
| 11 | 21% | 95% | 6% |
| 10½ | 1% | 89% | 3% |
| 10 | 14% | 63% | <1% |
| 9 | 7% | 16% | <1% |
| 8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Bears’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs NOweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · CHI by 9.5 | 80% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 19% |
| at DETweek 12 · Thu Nov 26, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 48% | 94% | 77% | 52% | 18% |
| vs JAXweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 43% | 93% | 80% | 44% | 26% |
| at MIAweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 76% | 89% | 75% | 38% | 21% |
| at BUFweek 15 · Sat Dec 19, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 40% | 93% | 81% | 45% | 27% |
| vs GBweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 94% | 75% | 44% | 19% |
| vs DETweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 58% | 92% | 78% | 45% | 18% |
| at MINweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 55% | 93% | 78% | 45% | 21% |
Who should Bears fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Bears’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| NE over DET (away) | 87% | 84% | 40% | 31% |
| GB over MIN (home) | 85% | 86% | 36% | 32% |
| LV over SEA (home) | 87% | 85% | 34% | 34% |
| ARI over LA (home) | 87% | 85% | 34% | 34% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Bears, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| TB over DETweek 11 | 87% | 85% | 40% | 31% |
| ATL over DETweek 13 | 86% | 85% | 39% | 31% |
| TEN over DETweek 14 | 87% | 85% | 40% | 33% |
| NYG over DETweek 16 | 86% | 85% | 40% | 32% |
| ATL over MINweek 12 | 87% | 84% | 38% | 32% |
| SF over MINweek 11 | 86% | 85% | 37% | 30% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Bears finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 10% of the seasons: won 5%, lost 6%. Decided by head-to-head (4%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (3%), division record (2%), conference record (1%), record in common games (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 16% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 13%. Decided by head-to-head (8%), division record (6%), record in common games (1%), conference record (1%).
Chicago Bears: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work