Playoff odds › AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals playoff chances
6–2 · 2nd in the AFC North · the No. 6 seed if the season ended today · rating +4.8 (3rd of 32)
The Cincinnati Bengals have a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 64% chance to win the AFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind PIT in the AFC North (head-to-head); behind KC in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Bengals’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 51% | 28% |
| After week 1 | 58% | 25% |
| After week 2 | 79% | 48% |
| After week 3 | 69% | 36% |
| After week 4 | 64% | 33% |
| After week 5 | 66% | 34% |
| After week 6 | 64% | 35% |
| After week 7 | 87% | 55% |
| After week 8 | 90% | 56% |
| After week 9 | 94% | 63% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 94% | 64% |
Where the Bengals could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Bengals need to make the playoffs?
How the Bengals’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (85% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (9% of the seasons): in 83%. Help that matters most then: DET over NE (week 10): 87% if so, 77% if not; ATL over CLE (week 14): 87% if so, 79% if not.
- 9 wins (4% of the seasons): in 34%. Help that matters most then: MIN over NE (week 14): 43% if so, 28% if not; DET over NE (week 10): 40% if so, 27% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (1% of the seasons): in 3%.
How many wins do the Bengals need?
How often the Bengals finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 6% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 17% | >99% | 97% |
| 13½ | 1% | >99% | 96% |
| 13 | 23% | >99% | 85% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 81% |
| 12 | 21% | >99% | 63% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 53% |
| 11 | 15% | 99% | 34% |
| 10 | 9% | 83% | 12% |
| 9 | 4% | 34% | 1% |
| 8 | 1% | 3% | <1% |
The Bengals’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs PITweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM · CIN by 3.5 | 62% | 98% | 88% | 83% | 34% |
| at WASweek 11 · Mon Nov 23, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 65% | 97% | 90% | 69% | 53% |
| vs NOweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 76% | 96% | 88% | 68% | 51% |
| at CLEweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 71% | 97% | 87% | 71% | 48% |
| vs KCweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 59% | 97% | 90% | 70% | 55% |
| at CARweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 66% | 97% | 90% | 69% | 54% |
| at INDweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 71% | 96% | 89% | 68% | 53% |
| vs BALweek 17 · Thu Dec 31, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 77% | 96% | 88% | 68% | 51% |
| vs CLEweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 76% | 97% | 88% | 69% | 50% |
Who should Bengals fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Bengals’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| HOU over CLE (away) | 94% | 94% | 65% | 61% |
| DET over NE (home) | 95% | 93% | 64% | 64% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Bengals, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| JAX over PITweek 14 | 94% | 94% | 68% | 54% |
| HOU over PITweek 13 | 94% | 94% | 71% | 57% |
| PHI over PITweek 11 | 94% | 94% | 73% | 59% |
| DEN over PITweek 12 | 94% | 94% | 71% | 58% |
| BAL over PITweek 15 | 94% | 94% | 73% | 61% |
| BAL over PITweek 18 | 94% | 94% | 72% | 60% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Bengals finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 5% of the seasons: won 2%, lost 3%. Decided by conference record (1%), head-to-head (1%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), division record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 14% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 10%. Decided by head-to-head (7%), division record (4%), record in common games (2%), conference record (1%).
Cincinnati Bengals: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work