Playoff odds › AFC North
Cleveland Browns playoff chances
5–4 · 3rd in the AFC North · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (8th in the AFC) · rating −3.3 (24th of 32)
The Cleveland Browns have a 26% chance to make the playoffs and a 4% chance to win the AFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind NE in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Browns’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 30% | 13% |
| After week 1 | 18% | 5% |
| After week 2 | 19% | 5% |
| After week 3 | 24% | 8% |
| After week 4 | 28% | 10% |
| After week 5 | 20% | 7% |
| After week 6 | 33% | 13% |
| After week 7 | 42% | 12% |
| After week 8 | 32% | 6% |
| After week 9 | 26% | 4% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 26% | 4% |
Where the Browns could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Browns need to make the playoffs?
How the Browns’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (9% of the seasons): in the playoffs 97% of the time.
- 10 wins (15% of the seasons): in 70%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 81% if so, 66% if not; DET over NE (week 10): 77% if so, 62% if not.
- 9 wins (21% of the seasons): in 23%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 33% if so, 19% if not; DET over NE (week 10): 29% if so, 17% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (52% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Browns need?
How often the Browns finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | >99% | 56% |
| 11 | 7% | 97% | 20% |
| 10 | 15% | 70% | 4% |
| 9½ | 1% | 55% | 1% |
| 9 | 21% | 23% | <1% |
| 8½ | 1% | 10% | <1% |
| 8 | 23% | 3% | <1% |
| 7½ | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Browns’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs HOUweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · HOU by 4.5 | 35% | 47% | 15% | 7% | 2% |
| vs LVweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| vs CINweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 29% | 44% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| vs ATLweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 49% | 35% | 17% | 5% | 2% |
| at NYGweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 42% | 35% | 18% | 5% | 2% |
| at BALweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 45% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| vs INDweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 57% | 33% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| at CINweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 24% | 41% | 21% | 8% | 1% |
Who should Browns fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Browns’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 28% | 23% | 4% | 4% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 27% | 25% | 4% | 4% |
| LAC over BAL (away) | 27% | 26% | 4% | 4% |
| ATL over KC (home) | 27% | 25% | 3% | 4% |
| MIA over IND (away) | 27% | 26% | 4% | 4% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Browns, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| LAC over NEweek 12 | 30% | 24% | 4% | 4% |
| MIN over NEweek 14 | 29% | 24% | 4% | 4% |
| BUF over NEweek 13 | 28% | 23% | 4% | 4% |
| NYJ over NEweek 16 | 29% | 24% | 4% | 4% |
| MIA over NEweek 18 | 30% | 25% | 4% | 4% |
| DEN over NEweek 17 | 28% | 24% | 4% | 4% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Browns finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 16% of the seasons: won 5%, lost 12%. Decided by conference record (8%), head-to-head (4%), division record (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), record in common games (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 3% of the seasons: won 2%, lost 1%. Decided by head-to-head (1%), division record (1%).
Cleveland Browns: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work