Playoff odds › NFC East
Dallas Cowboys playoff chances
4–5 · 2nd in the NFC East · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (10th in the NFC) · rating +0.5 (15th of 32)
The Dallas Cowboys have a 37% chance to make the playoffs and a 35% chance to win the NFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Cowboys’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 36% | 23% |
| After week 1 | 33% | 20% |
| After week 2 | 46% | 32% |
| After week 3 | 39% | 25% |
| After week 4 | 49% | 37% |
| After week 5 | 42% | 35% |
| After week 6 | 42% | 39% |
| After week 7 | 59% | 53% |
| After week 8 | 36% | 33% |
| After week 9 | 30% | 27% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 37% | 35% |
Where the Cowboys could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Cowboys need to make the playoffs?
How the Cowboys’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (5% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (12% of the seasons): in 92%. Help that matters most then: JAX over NYG (week 11): 94% if so, 82% if not; SF over NYG (week 13): 95% if so, 84% if not.
- 9 wins (21% of the seasons): in 61%. Help that matters most then: JAX over NYG (week 11): 68% if so, 36% if not; SF over NYG (week 13): 69% if so, 42% if not.
- 8 wins (24% of the seasons): in 25%. Help that matters most then: IND over NYG (week 12): 37% if so, 14% if not; CLE over NYG (week 15): 36% if so, 15% if not.
- 7 wins or fewer (36% of the seasons): in 3%.
How many wins do the Cowboys need?
How often the Cowboys finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1% | >99% | 99% |
| 11 | 4% | >99% | 96% |
| 10 | 12% | 92% | 84% |
| 9 | 21% | 61% | 58% |
| 8½ | 1% | 44% | 44% |
| 8 | 24% | 25% | 25% |
| 7½ | 1% | 13% | 13% |
| 7 | 20% | 5% | 5% |
| 6 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Cowboys’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs SFweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM · SF by 3.5 | 38% | 52% | 28% | 49% | 27% |
| vs TENweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · DAL by 7.5 | 75% | 42% | 21% | 40% | 20% |
| vs PHIweek 12 · Thu Nov 26, 4:30 PM · no line yet | 74% | 42% | 21% | 40% | 20% |
| at SEAweek 13 · Mon Dec 7, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 34% | 52% | 28% | 49% | 28% |
| at LAweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 34% | 51% | 29% | 49% | 28% |
| vs JAXweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 34% | 50% | 30% | 48% | 29% |
| vs NYGweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 64% | 47% | 15% | 45% | 13% |
| at WASweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 51% | 48% | 24% | 46% | 23% |
Who should Cowboys fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Cowboys’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| ARI over LA (home) | 38% | 36% | 36% | 35% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Cowboys, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| JAX over NYGweek 11 | 40% | 26% | 39% | 23% |
| IND over NYGweek 12 | 44% | 29% | 43% | 27% |
| SF over NYGweek 13 | 41% | 27% | 40% | 25% |
| SEA over NYGweek 14 | 40% | 27% | 39% | 24% |
| CLE over NYGweek 15 | 44% | 31% | 43% | 29% |
| DET over NYGweek 16 | 40% | 28% | 39% | 25% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Cowboys finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 4% of the seasons: won 2%, lost 2%. Decided by conference record (1%), head-to-head (1%), division record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 1% of the seasons: won 1%, lost <1%. Decided by division record (1%).
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