Playoff odds › AFC West
Denver Broncos playoff chances
7–2 · 1st in the AFC West · the No. 2 seed if the season ended today · rating +3.0 (10th of 32)
The Denver Broncos have a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 60% chance to win the AFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Broncos’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 71% | 53% |
| After week 1 | 37% | 19% |
| After week 2 | 55% | 27% |
| After week 3 | 67% | 32% |
| After week 4 | 56% | 22% |
| After week 5 | 69% | 31% |
| After week 6 | 72% | 28% |
| After week 7 | 83% | 45% |
| After week 8 | 90% | 60% |
| After week 9 | 94% | 60% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 94% | 60% |
Where the Broncos could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Broncos need to make the playoffs?
How the Broncos’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (85% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (9% of the seasons): in 81%. Help that matters most then: IND over HOU (week 11): 88% if so, 79% if not; LAC over NE (week 12): 86% if so, 78% if not.
- 9 wins (4% of the seasons): in 27%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 33% if so, 22% if not; SEA over LV (week 10): 28% if so, 18% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (1% of the seasons): in 2%.
How many wins do the Broncos need?
How often the Broncos finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 5% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 15% | >99% | 94% |
| 13 | 23% | >99% | 81% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 76% |
| 12 | 23% | >99% | 58% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 49% |
| 11 | 17% | 99% | 35% |
| 10 | 9% | 81% | 14% |
| 9 | 4% | 27% | 4% |
| 8 | 1% | 2% | <1% |
The Broncos’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs LVweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 4:25 PM · DEN by 8.5 | 77% | 97% | 85% | 67% | 37% |
| at PITweek 12 · Fri Nov 27, 3:00 PM · no line yet | 48% | 99% | 91% | 70% | 51% |
| vs MIAweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 82% | 96% | 87% | 64% | 42% |
| at NYJweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 68% | 97% | 90% | 67% | 45% |
| at LVweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 67% | 98% | 90% | 68% | 44% |
| vs BUFweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 4:30 PM · no line yet | 47% | 98% | 92% | 70% | 51% |
| at NEweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 53% | 98% | 92% | 69% | 50% |
| vs LACweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 75% | 97% | 90% | 65% | 43% |
Who should Broncos fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Broncos’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| ATL over KC (home) | 95% | 94% | 71% | 54% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 95% | 93% | 61% | 59% |
| DET over NE (home) | 95% | 94% | 60% | 60% |
| CIN over PIT (home) | 95% | 94% | 61% | 59% |
| BUF over NYJ (away) | 95% | 95% | 60% | 59% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Broncos, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| BUF over KCweek 12 | 95% | 94% | 68% | 47% |
| LAC over KCweek 17 | 95% | 94% | 75% | 54% |
| LV over KCweek 18 | 94% | 94% | 75% | 56% |
| ARI over KCweek 11 | 95% | 94% | 77% | 58% |
| LA over KCweek 13 | 95% | 94% | 68% | 49% |
| NE over KCweek 15 | 94% | 95% | 72% | 54% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Broncos finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 4% of the seasons: won 1%, lost 3%. Decided by conference record (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), head-to-head (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 16% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 12%. Decided by division record (8%), record in common games (3%), conference record (3%), strength of victory (1%), head-to-head (1%).
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