Playoff odds › NFC North
Detroit Lions playoff chances
6–2 · 2nd in the NFC North · the No. 5 seed if the season ended today · rating +3.0 (11th of 32)
The Detroit Lions have an 80% chance to make the playoffs and a 35% chance to win the NFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of MIN in the NFC North (head-to-head); ahead of MIN in the NFC order (division tiebreaker (only the best-ranked club of a division takes part)).
How the Lions’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 58% | 33% |
| After week 1 | 62% | 31% |
| After week 2 | 51% | 22% |
| After week 3 | 59% | 23% |
| After week 4 | 54% | 23% |
| After week 5 | 73% | 34% |
| After week 6 | 74% | 32% |
| After week 7 | 72% | 27% |
| After week 8 | 78% | 30% |
| After week 9 | 80% | 34% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 80% | 35% |
Where the Lions could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Lions need to make the playoffs?
How the Lions’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (66% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (17% of the seasons): in 70%. Help that matters most then: TB over LA (week 17): 76% if so, 65% if not; ARI over LA (week 10): 78% if so, 67% if not.
- 9 wins (10% of the seasons): in 18%. Help that matters most then: ARI over LA (week 10): 26% if so, 17% if not; PHI over SEA (week 15): 26% if so, 17% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (6% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Lions need?
How often the Lions finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 7% | >99% | 99% |
| 13 | 15% | >99% | 86% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 66% |
| 12 | 21% | >99% | 48% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 24% |
| 11 | 21% | 97% | 12% |
| 10½ | 1% | 88% | 2% |
| 10 | 17% | 70% | 1% |
| 9 | 10% | 18% | <1% |
| 8 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Lions’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs NEweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 9:30 AM · DET by 2.5 | 59% | 86% | 71% | 42% | 23% |
| vs TBweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · DET by 3.5 | 62% | 87% | 68% | 41% | 23% |
| vs CHIweek 12 · Thu Nov 26, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 52% | 90% | 70% | 51% | 17% |
| at ATLweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 87% | 70% | 41% | 24% |
| vs TENweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 79% | 83% | 69% | 38% | 22% |
| at MINweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 53% | 90% | 69% | 47% | 19% |
| vs NYGweek 16 · Mon Dec 28, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 71% | 85% | 69% | 39% | 24% |
| at CHIweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 42% | 90% | 74% | 50% | 22% |
| at GBweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 45% | 91% | 72% | 45% | 25% |
Who should Lions fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Lions’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| ARI over LA (home) | 82% | 79% | 34% | 35% |
| GB over MIN (home) | 79% | 80% | 36% | 33% |
| LV over SEA (home) | 81% | 79% | 35% | 35% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Lions, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| NO over CHIweek 11 | 82% | 79% | 42% | 33% |
| JAX over CHIweek 13 | 81% | 79% | 38% | 30% |
| MIA over CHIweek 14 | 82% | 79% | 41% | 33% |
| BUF over CHIweek 15 | 80% | 79% | 38% | 30% |
| SF over MINweek 11 | 80% | 79% | 37% | 31% |
| NE over MINweek 14 | 81% | 78% | 37% | 32% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Lions finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 8%, lost 5%. Decided by head-to-head (3%), conference record (3%), division record (2%), record in common games (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (2%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 14% of the seasons: won 10%, lost 4%. Decided by division record (6%), head-to-head (6%), record in common games (1%).
Detroit Lions: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work