Playoff odds › NFC North
Green Bay Packers playoff chances
6–3 · 4th in the NFC North · the No. 7 seed if the season ended today · rating +2.4 (12th of 32)
The Green Bay Packers have a 62% chance to make the playoffs and a 12% chance to win the NFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Packers’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 39% | 18% |
| After week 1 | 28% | 8% |
| After week 2 | 28% | 9% |
| After week 3 | 14% | 3% |
| After week 4 | 26% | 7% |
| After week 5 | 42% | 10% |
| After week 6 | 52% | 11% |
| After week 7 | 45% | 7% |
| After week 8 | 51% | 8% |
| After week 9 | 61% | 12% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 62% | 12% |
Where the Packers could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Packers need to make the playoffs?
How the Packers’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (44% of the seasons): in the playoffs 98% of the time.
- 10 wins (23% of the seasons): in 64%. Help that matters most then: DAL over SEA (week 13): 72% if so, 60% if not; SF over SEA (week 12): 70% if so, 58% if not.
- 9 wins (17% of the seasons): in 16%. Help that matters most then: PHI over SEA (week 15): 22% if so, 13% if not; CAR over SEA (week 17): 21% if so, 12% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (13% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Packers need?
How often the Packers finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1% | >99% | 95% |
| 13 | 6% | >99% | 71% |
| 12 | 15% | >99% | 31% |
| 11 | 22% | 95% | 6% |
| 10½ | 1% | 86% | 2% |
| 10 | 23% | 64% | <1% |
| 9½ | 1% | 37% | <1% |
| 9 | 17% | 16% | <1% |
| 8 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Packers’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs MINweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · GB by 3 | 61% | 75% | 41% | 18% | 3% |
| at LAweek 12 · Wed Nov 25, 8:00 PM · no line yet | 37% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 8% |
| at NOweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 72% | 47% | 16% | 6% |
| vs BUFweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 44% | 73% | 53% | 17% | 8% |
| vs MIAweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 80% | 66% | 45% | 13% | 6% |
| at CHIweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 78% | 52% | 23% | 3% |
| vs HOUweek 17 · Mon Jan 4, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 52% | 70% | 53% | 15% | 8% |
| vs DETweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 55% | 74% | 48% | 17% | 4% |
Who should Packers fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Packers’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| ARI over LA (home) | 66% | 61% | 13% | 12% |
| NE over DET (away) | 64% | 60% | 15% | 10% |
| LV over SEA (home) | 64% | 61% | 12% | 12% |
| CAR over NO (away) | 63% | 62% | 12% | 12% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Packers, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DAL over SEAweek 13 | 65% | 60% | 12% | 12% |
| PHI over SEAweek 15 | 66% | 61% | 12% | 12% |
| CAR over SEAweek 17 | 65% | 60% | 12% | 12% |
| SF over SEAweek 12 | 64% | 59% | 12% | 12% |
| NYG over SEAweek 14 | 65% | 61% | 12% | 12% |
| TB over DETweek 11 | 64% | 61% | 15% | 10% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Packers finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 17% of the seasons: won 9%, lost 8%. Decided by head-to-head (6%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (3%), division record (3%), conference record (3%), record in common games (2%), strength of victory (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 9% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 5%. Decided by head-to-head (5%), division record (2%), record in common games (1%), conference record (1%).
Green Bay Packers: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work