Playoff odds › AFC South
Houston Texans playoff chances
3–5 · 2nd in the AFC South · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (11th in the AFC) · rating +3.3 (9th of 32)
The Houston Texans have a 39% chance to make the playoffs and an 8% chance to win the AFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Texans’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 65% | 39% |
| After week 1 | 52% | 29% |
| After week 2 | 44% | 31% |
| After week 3 | 27% | 14% |
| After week 4 | 20% | 8% |
| After week 5 | 29% | 12% |
| After week 6 | 43% | 23% |
| After week 7 | 29% | 15% |
| After week 8 | 27% | 10% |
| After week 9 | 40% | 8% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 39% | 8% |
Where the Texans could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Texans need to make the playoffs?
How the Texans’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (14% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (19% of the seasons): in 81%. Help that matters most then: BUF over NE (week 13): 86% if so, 75% if not; LAC over NE (week 12): 89% if so, 78% if not.
- 9 wins (23% of the seasons): in 36%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 48% if so, 30% if not; BUF over NE (week 13): 42% if so, 27% if not.
- 8 wins (20% of the seasons): in 6%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 10% if so, 4% if not; BUF over NE (week 13): 8% if so, 3% if not.
- 7½ wins or fewer (23% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Texans need?
How often the Texans finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 3% | >99% | 64% |
| 11 | 11% | 99% | 29% |
| 10 | 19% | 81% | 10% |
| 9½ | 1% | 64% | 4% |
| 9 | 23% | 36% | 3% |
| 8½ | 1% | 15% | 1% |
| 8 | 20% | 6% | 1% |
| 7½ | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Texans’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at CLEweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · HOU by 4.5 | 65% | 51% | 17% | 10% | 3% |
| vs INDweek 11 · Thu Nov 19, 8:15 PM · HOU by 10 | 81% | 44% | 18% | 9% | 3% |
| vs BALweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 75% | 46% | 18% | 9% | 3% |
| at PITweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 49% | 54% | 23% | 11% | 4% |
| at WASweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 47% | 27% | 10% | 4% |
| vs JAXweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 41% | 53% | 28% | 14% | 1% |
| at PHIweek 16 · Thu Dec 24, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 72% | 44% | 26% | 9% | 4% |
| at GBweek 17 · Mon Jan 4, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 48% | 49% | 30% | 11% | 4% |
| vs TENweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 79% | 43% | 23% | 9% | 4% |
Who should Texans fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Texans’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| TEN over JAX (home) | 42% | 39% | 17% | 6% |
| DET over NE (home) | 41% | 36% | 8% | 8% |
| CIN over PIT (home) | 41% | 37% | 8% | 8% |
| LAC over BAL (away) | 41% | 38% | 8% | 8% |
| ATL over KC (home) | 40% | 39% | 8% | 8% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 39% | 38% | 8% | 8% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Texans, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| TEN over JAXweek 12 | 42% | 39% | 18% | 7% |
| NYG over JAXweek 11 | 42% | 39% | 16% | 6% |
| PIT over JAXweek 14 | 39% | 39% | 14% | 5% |
| CHI over JAXweek 13 | 41% | 38% | 12% | 4% |
| WAS over JAXweek 17 | 40% | 39% | 14% | 6% |
| LAC over NEweek 12 | 44% | 36% | 8% | 8% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Texans finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 18% of the seasons: won 9%, lost 9%. Decided by conference record (8%), head-to-head (5%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (2%), record in common games (1%), strength of victory (1%), a head-to-head sweep (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 5% of the seasons: won 4%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (4%).
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