Playoff odds › AFC South
Indianapolis Colts playoff chances
2–7 · 3rd in the AFC South · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (13th in the AFC) · rating −3.9 (26th of 32)
The Indianapolis Colts have a 1% chance to make the playoffs and less than a 1% chance to win the AFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind NYJ in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Colts’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 37% | 15% |
| After week 1 | 22% | 9% |
| After week 2 | 26% | 16% |
| After week 3 | 28% | 15% |
| After week 4 | 48% | 24% |
| After week 5 | 28% | 12% |
| After week 6 | 12% | 7% |
| After week 7 | 10% | 6% |
| After week 8 | 3% | 1% |
| After week 9 | 1% | <1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 1% | <1% |
Where the Colts could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Colts need to make the playoffs?
How the Colts’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 8 wins or fewer (97% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Colts need?
How often the Colts finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2% | 24% | 3% |
| 8 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 7 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 5½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 24% | <1% | <1% |
| 4½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Colts’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs MIAweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · IND by 3.5 | 62% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at HOUweek 11 · Thu Nov 19, 8:15 PM · HOU by 10 | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs NYGweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 50% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at PHIweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 52% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at TENweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 51% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs CINweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 29% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at CLEweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 43% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs JAXweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 24% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Who should Colts fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Colts’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
No other game this week moves the Colts’ chances by a point or more.
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Colts finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 1% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 1%. Decided by conference record (1%).
- The division title: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
Indianapolis Colts: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work