Playoff odds › AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars playoff chances
6–2 · 1st in the AFC South · the No. 3 seed if the season ended today · rating +7.4 (1st of 32)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 98% chance to make the playoffs and a 92% chance to win the AFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of PIT in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Jaguars’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 67% | 40% |
| After week 1 | 79% | 60% |
| After week 2 | 61% | 49% |
| After week 3 | 80% | 69% |
| After week 4 | 83% | 67% |
| After week 5 | 88% | 76% |
| After week 6 | 83% | 69% |
| After week 7 | 87% | 79% |
| After week 8 | 94% | 89% |
| After week 9 | 98% | 91% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 98% | 92% |
Where the Jaguars could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Jaguars need to make the playoffs?
How the Jaguars’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
How many wins do the Jaguars need?
How often the Jaguars finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 9% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 21% | >99% | >99% |
| 13½ | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 13 | 25% | >99% | >99% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 12 | 21% | >99% | 96% |
| 11 | 13% | >99% | 82% |
| 10 | 6% | 94% | 60% |
| 9 | 2% | 67% | 38% |
| 8 | 1% | 23% | 14% |
The Jaguars’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at TENweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · JAX by 10.5 | 83% | 99% | 94% | 94% | 82% |
| at NYGweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 77% | 99% | 95% | 94% | 84% |
| vs TENweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 89% | 99% | 94% | 93% | 82% |
| at CHIweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 57% | 99% | 97% | 95% | 88% |
| vs PITweek 14 · Mon Dec 14, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 72% | 99% | 96% | 94% | 86% |
| at HOUweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 59% | >99% | 97% | 99% | 86% |
| at DALweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 66% | 99% | 97% | 95% | 87% |
| vs WASweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 80% | 99% | 96% | 94% | 86% |
| at INDweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 76% | 99% | 96% | 94% | 86% |
Who should Jaguars fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Jaguars’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| CLE over HOU (home) | 99% | 98% | 97% | 90% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Jaguars, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| PIT over HOUweek 13 | 98% | 98% | 96% | 89% |
| BAL over HOUweek 12 | 99% | 98% | 97% | 91% |
| WAS over HOUweek 14 | 99% | 98% | 96% | 90% |
| GB over HOUweek 17 | 98% | 98% | 95% | 89% |
| IND over HOUweek 11 | 99% | 98% | 97% | 91% |
| PHI over HOUweek 16 | 99% | 98% | 96% | 91% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Jaguars finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 2% of the seasons: won 1%, lost 1%. Decided by head-to-head (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 5% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 4%. Decided by head-to-head (4%).
Jacksonville Jaguars: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work