Playoff odds › AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs playoff chances
6–2 · 2nd in the AFC West · the No. 5 seed if the season ended today · rating +3.5 (8th of 32)
The Kansas City Chiefs have a 91% chance to make the playoffs and a 38% chance to win the AFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of CIN in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Chiefs’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 35% | 17% |
| After week 1 | 69% | 53% |
| After week 2 | 73% | 51% |
| After week 3 | 79% | 50% |
| After week 4 | 85% | 64% |
| After week 5 | 85% | 62% |
| After week 6 | 91% | 69% |
| After week 7 | 86% | 53% |
| After week 8 | 80% | 36% |
| After week 9 | 91% | 39% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 91% | 38% |
Where the Chiefs could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Chiefs need to make the playoffs?
How the Chiefs’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10½ wins or more (69% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (17% of the seasons): in 94%. No single other game moves that by five points or more.
- 9 wins (9% of the seasons): in 61%. Help that matters most then: IND over HOU (week 11): 70% if so, 54% if not; JAX over HOU (week 15): 64% if so, 50% if not.
- 8 wins (4% of the seasons): in 13%. Help that matters most then: IND over HOU (week 11): 19% if so, 12% if not; JAX over HOU (week 15): 16% if so, 9% if not.
- 7 wins or fewer (1% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Chiefs need?
How often the Chiefs finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2% | >99% | 96% |
| 14 | 7% | >99% | 88% |
| 13 | 15% | >99% | 71% |
| 12½ | 1% | >99% | 55% |
| 12 | 21% | >99% | 50% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 33% |
| 11 | 22% | >99% | 28% |
| 10½ | 1% | 98% | 12% |
| 10 | 17% | 94% | 12% |
| 9 | 9% | 61% | 3% |
| 8 | 4% | 13% | <1% |
| 7 | 1% | 1% | <1% |
The Chiefs’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at ATLweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · KC by 3 | 61% | 95% | 85% | 45% | 27% |
| vs ARIweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · KC by 14 | 89% | 93% | 79% | 40% | 20% |
| at BUFweek 12 · Thu Nov 26, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 37% | 97% | 88% | 52% | 30% |
| at LAweek 13 · Thu Dec 3, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 41% | 96% | 88% | 50% | 30% |
| at CINweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 41% | 97% | 88% | 48% | 32% |
| vs NEweek 15 · Mon Dec 21, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 64% | 97% | 83% | 45% | 27% |
| vs SFweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 53% | 96% | 88% | 47% | 29% |
| at LACweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 69% | 95% | 85% | 45% | 24% |
| vs LVweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 75% | 95% | 83% | 44% | 22% |
Who should Chiefs fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Chiefs’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 92% | 90% | 38% | 39% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 92% | 90% | 38% | 39% |
| PIT over CIN (away) | 91% | 91% | 39% | 38% |
| NYJ over BUF (home) | 92% | 91% | 39% | 38% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Chiefs, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| LV over DENweek 11 | 90% | 91% | 58% | 33% |
| LV over DENweek 15 | 90% | 92% | 54% | 31% |
| MIA over DENweek 13 | 92% | 91% | 56% | 35% |
| LAC over DENweek 18 | 92% | 91% | 54% | 34% |
| NYJ over DENweek 14 | 91% | 91% | 53% | 32% |
| BUF over DENweek 16 | 91% | 91% | 47% | 29% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Chiefs finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 9% of the seasons: won 7%, lost 2%. Decided by conference record (5%), head-to-head (1%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), record in common games (1%), division record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 16% of the seasons: won 12%, lost 4%. Decided by division record (9%), record in common games (3%), conference record (3%), strength of victory (1%).
Kansas City Chiefs: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work