Playoff odds › NFC West
Los Angeles Rams playoff chances
5–4 · 3rd in the NFC West · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (9th in the NFC) · rating +4.7 (4th of 32)
The Los Angeles Rams have a 50% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the NFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind SEA in the NFC West (division record); behind SEA in the NFC order (division tiebreaker (only the best-ranked club of a division takes part)).
How the Rams’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 69% | 30% |
| After week 1 | 48% | 14% |
| After week 2 | 58% | 17% |
| After week 3 | 48% | 15% |
| After week 4 | 60% | 16% |
| After week 5 | 57% | 11% |
| After week 6 | 37% | 5% |
| After week 7 | 38% | 8% |
| After week 8 | 44% | 12% |
| After week 9 | 50% | 9% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 50% | 9% |
Where the Rams could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Rams need to make the playoffs?
How the Rams’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (33% of the seasons): in the playoffs 98% of the time.
- 10 wins (23% of the seasons): in 61%. Help that matters most then: LV over SEA (week 10): 70% if so, 57% if not; SF over SEA (week 12): 66% if so, 53% if not.
- 9 wins (20% of the seasons): in 12%. Help that matters most then: LV over SEA (week 10): 16% if so, 10% if not; NO over GB (week 13): 15% if so, 9% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (21% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Rams need?
How often the Rams finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 3% | >99% | 70% |
| 12 | 11% | >99% | 35% |
| 11 | 19% | 96% | 12% |
| 10½ | 1% | 84% | 7% |
| 10 | 23% | 61% | 2% |
| 9½ | 1% | 34% | <1% |
| 9 | 20% | 12% | <1% |
| 8 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Rams’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at ARIweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · LA by 9.5 | 80% | 56% | 29% | 11% | 3% |
| vs GBweek 12 · Wed Nov 25, 8:00 PM · no line yet | 63% | 63% | 29% | 11% | 4% |
| vs KCweek 13 · Thu Dec 3, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 59% | 59% | 38% | 12% | 5% |
| at SFweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 47% | 65% | 38% | 16% | 1% |
| vs DALweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 66% | 58% | 35% | 11% | 5% |
| at SEAweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 47% | 68% | 35% | 14% | 3% |
| at TBweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 58% | 59% | 38% | 11% | 5% |
| vs SEAweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 57% | 62% | 34% | 12% | 3% |
Who should Rams fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Rams’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DAL over SF (home) | 50% | 50% | 13% | 6% |
| LV over SEA (home) | 56% | 48% | 10% | 9% |
| NE over DET (away) | 52% | 49% | 9% | 9% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Rams, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| ARI over SFweek 18 | 51% | 50% | 14% | 6% |
| SEA over SFweek 12 | 47% | 53% | 13% | 6% |
| NYG over SFweek 13 | 51% | 50% | 13% | 6% |
| MIN over SFweek 11 | 48% | 52% | 13% | 6% |
| LAC over SFweek 15 | 51% | 50% | 13% | 7% |
| PHI over SFweek 17 | 51% | 50% | 14% | 8% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Rams finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 18% of the seasons: won 9%, lost 9%. Decided by a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (7%), head-to-head (4%), conference record (3%), record in common games (2%), division record (1%), strength of victory (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 8% of the seasons: won 2%, lost 6%. Decided by division record (4%), head-to-head (2%), conference record (1%), record in common games (1%).
Los Angeles Rams: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work