Playoff odds › AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers playoff chances
0–8 · 4th in the AFC West · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (16th in the AFC) · rating −4.5 (27th of 32)
The Los Angeles Chargers have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs and less than a 1% chance to win the AFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Chargers’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 43% | 23% |
| After week 1 | 29% | 15% |
| After week 2 | 16% | 6% |
| After week 3 | 12% | 3% |
| After week 4 | 11% | 3% |
| After week 5 | 4% | 1% |
| After week 6 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 7 | 2% | <1% |
| After week 8 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 9 | <1% | <1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | <1% | <1% |
Where the Chargers could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Chargers need to make the playoffs?
How the Chargers’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 8 wins or fewer (99% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Chargers need?
How often the Chargers finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1% | 4% | <1% |
| 7 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 4½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 3½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 22% | <1% | <1% |
| 2½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 0 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
The Chargers’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at BALweek 10 · Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM · BAL by 4.5 | 34% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs NYJweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 4:05 PM · LAC by 1.5 | 55% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs NEweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 35% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at TBweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 29% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at LVweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 40% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs SFweek 15 · Thu Dec 17, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 28% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at MIAweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 51% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs KCweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 31% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at DENweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 25% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Who should Chargers fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Chargers’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
No other game this week moves the Chargers’ chances by a point or more.
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Chargers finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
- The division title: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
Los Angeles Chargers: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work