Playoff odds › AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders playoff chances
4–5 · 3rd in the AFC West · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (9th in the AFC) · rating −3.8 (25th of 32)
The Las Vegas Raiders have a 9% chance to make the playoffs and a 1% chance to win the AFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of BAL in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Raiders’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 15% | 7% |
| After week 1 | 26% | 13% |
| After week 2 | 34% | 16% |
| After week 3 | 41% | 15% |
| After week 4 | 35% | 11% |
| After week 5 | 21% | 6% |
| After week 6 | 16% | 3% |
| After week 7 | 11% | 2% |
| After week 8 | 16% | 4% |
| After week 9 | 9% | 1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 9% | 1% |
Where the Raiders could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Raiders need to make the playoffs?
How the Raiders’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (1% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (5% of the seasons): in 75%. Help that matters most then: DET over NE (week 10): 82% if so, 69% if not; BUF over NE (week 13): 82% if so, 70% if not.
- 9 wins (12% of the seasons): in 25%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 31% if so, 19% if not; IND over HOU (week 11): 32% if so, 21% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (79% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Raiders need?
How often the Raiders finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1% | 99% | 39% |
| 10 | 5% | 75% | 8% |
| 9 | 12% | 25% | 1% |
| 8 | 20% | 2% | <1% |
| 7½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 24% | <1% | <1% |
| 6½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 20% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
The Raiders’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs SEAweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · SEA by 6.5 | 28% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| at DENweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 4:25 PM · DEN by 8.5 | 23% | 22% | 5% | 5% | <1% |
| at CLEweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| vs LACweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 60% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| vs DENweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 33% | 17% | 5% | 3% | <1% |
| vs TENweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 61% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| at ARIweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 48% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| at KCweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 25% | 17% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
Who should Raiders fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Raiders’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 10% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| ATL over KC (home) | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Raiders, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| LAC over NEweek 12 | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| IND over HOUweek 11 | 11% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
| MIN over NEweek 14 | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| BUF over NEweek 13 | 10% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| NYJ over NEweek 16 | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| MIA over NEweek 18 | 11% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Raiders finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 9% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 5%. Decided by conference record (3%), head-to-head (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), record in common games (1%), a head-to-head sweep (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 1% of the seasons: won 1%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (1%).
Las Vegas Raiders: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work