Playoff odds › AFC East
Miami Dolphins playoff chances
1–7 · 4th in the AFC East · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (14th in the AFC) · rating −5.6 (32nd of 32)
The Miami Dolphins have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs and less than a 1% chance to win the AFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of TEN in the AFC order (conference record).
Adjusted for a quarterback on the reserve list: −0.4 points a game, from two weeks ahead on (the market’s posted lines already include it).
How the Dolphins’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 19% | 7% |
| After week 1 | 7% | 2% |
| After week 2 | 3% | 1% |
| After week 3 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 4 | 1% | 1% |
| After week 5 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 6 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 7 | 1% | <1% |
| After week 8 | <1% | <1% |
| After week 9 | <1% | <1% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | <1% | <1% |
Where the Dolphins could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Dolphins need to make the playoffs?
How the Dolphins’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 8 wins or fewer (99% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Dolphins need?
How often the Dolphins finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1% | 3% | <1% |
| 7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| 4½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 22% | <1% | <1% |
| 3½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 2½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
The Dolphins’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at INDweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · IND by 3.5 | 38% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at BUFweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · BUF by 16.5 | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs NYJweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 51% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at DENweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:05 PM · no line yet | 18% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs CHIweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 24% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at GBweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 20% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs LACweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 49% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| vs BUFweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 21% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| at NEweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 26% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Who should Dolphins fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Dolphins’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
No other game this week moves the Dolphins’ chances by a point or more.
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Dolphins finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
- The division title: a tiebreaker decides it in under 1% of the seasons.
Miami Dolphins: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work